Up the Down Coattails: McGovern and the Congressional Candidates
Rappeport, Michael
Up the Down Coattails: McGovern and the Congressional Candidates by Michael Rappeport Since the Democratic convention, increasing numbers of people have adopted the Goldwater...
...A recent poll taken by Mervin Field in California shows that President Nixon’s popularity will not carry over to Republican congressional candidates in that state...
...Some specifics: Marvin Esch is a Republican running for Congress from a Michigan district that includes Ann Arbor (University of Michigan) and Ypsilanti (Eastern Michigan University...
...If McGovern gets at least 40 per cent of the popular vote, Sanders should win in Texas...
...At the same time, there are some things the McGovern people are doing very well-especially registration and getting out the vote-which will directly affect other Democratic candidates...
...The result will almost certainly be crucial for incumbent Senator Claiborne Pell...
...In the event of a Nixon victory with 55 per cent or less of the vote, the election should bring an actual increase in Democratic seats...
...These are the districts where there are huge masses of college students...
...Bill Ray is a Democrat whose chances in a very difficult fight for reelection are improved because Kansas State University is in his district...
...In the House races, the registration efforts should also nullify the usual loss in seats to the party of the presidential winner...
...Unless McGovern is able to change his image, these factors can only hold down his margin of defeat...
...Overall, the Democrats may actually gain ground in the Senate-even in the teeth of a fairly strong Nixon victory...
...There is an increasing trend away from pulling party levers, and since with McGovern and not the Democratic Party, the ticket-splitting promises to break all records this year...
...Because of independent voting, the coattail effect will be minimal, reducing the possibility that other Democratic candidates will Michael Rappeport is Director of Statistical suffer because they are linked to McGovern...
...The very fact that McGovern is in trouble is causing a much stronger push for registering young people...
...Only 50 per cent of the potential Texas electorate voted in 1968...
...His Senate race, which many people conceded to Republican John Chafee last winter, is now a toss-up, and I expect Pell to hold the seat...
...Similar situations exist in Maine, Alaska, South Dakota, and Kentuckyall relatively small states where voter registration could substantially change the make-up of the electorate...
...However, the actual result may be the victory of Barefoot Sanders, the Democrat, over John Tower for the Senate seat...
...The only serious setback the Democrats face is a possible Republican sweep of the three Senate seats up for grabs in North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama...
...The list could go on...
...A Republican victory there would have to be called an upset...
...Larry Winn, whose district voted .less than 53 percent Republican in 1970, now has to contend with Kansas University...
...In virtually every state, students are now eligible to vote where the university is located, and they can generally be registered after the school term starts...
...Since most individual Democratic gains will involve liberal Northerners, even a net loss in Democratic seats should result in a continued drift towards liberalism in the House...
...I believe that in combination with a large amount of splitticketing, the result will be a surprisingly strong Democratic showing in the congressional contests...
...If the presidential race gets close, such a gain seems assured...
...In Rhode Island, about one potential voter in five will be under 25...
...A closer look at McGovern’s general strategy, however, shows that his campaign may actually produce some unexpected benefits for other Democratic candidates...
...Some examples: Texas has a potential electorate that is 45 per cent black, Chicano, and/or under 25...
...In a similar situation in Indiana, Lawrence Hogan is a Republican whose district includes both Indiana University and Indiana State University...
...It may even turn out, ironically, that even if McGovern loses badly, his campaign will help bring victory to a lot of other Democrats who might not have won otherwise...
...Up the Down Coattails: McGovern and the Congressional Candidates by Michael Rappeport Since the Democratic convention, increasing numbers of people have adopted the Goldwater hypothesisthat if George McGovern is routed by President Nixon, he will drag the rest of the Democratic ticket down with him...
...Out of approximately 70 seats that are in doubt-half Democratic and half Republican-the McGovern efforts are bound to play a key part in at least two dozen races...
...Even in these states, the McGovern registration drives, particularly among blacks and students from larger campuses, could prove decisive...
...Registration of these groups is the key to the McGovern strategy...
...However, for a wide variety of House and Senate candidates, they may prove the margin of victory...
...Discussions of the effect of the college voters have centered around what will happen at the presidential or the local town levels, but the college vote should have its greatest impact on the House...
...Esch is the incumbent, but he faces a strong Democratic challenger...
Vol. 4 • October 1972 • No. 8
