POLITICAL NUMBERS: The Rise of the Small State
Rappeport, Michael
POLITICAL NUMBERS: The Rise of the Small State Political Numbers, analyzing election trends, public opinion, and voting patterns, will be a continuing feature. by Michael Rappeport Two...
...The last time a Democratic nominee came from any of the 30 least populated states was 1924, when John Davis was the beneficiary of a ballot tie-up between a New Yorker and a Californian...
...Six of them, however, will be 70 or older this year, three of whom will be 75 or more, and one is already past 80...
...Not a single Southerner appears in this group, which stands to inherit many Senate committee chairmanships in the next few years...
...The proliferation of candidates from less-populated areas is not because of a sudden change in the desirability of a large-state candidate-the politics of picking a man with substantial home electoral votes already in his pocket is still preferred...
...However, those with a longer view see instead a liberal group well on its way to becoming the new Senate establishment...
...This year, however, four of the leading contenders, Muskie, Hughes, McGovern, and Jackson, are from small states and only one of the contenders, Kennedy, is from one of the 10 largest states...
...I leave Republicans out of my calculation because their seniority is not significant as long as the Senate is controlled by the Democrats...
...Part of the explanation for the differing election probabilities between states of different size may be that small states offer more opportunities for the incumbent to do favors for a higher percentage of his constituents, to saturate the area more completely with media campaigns, and to cover the state more thoroughly in his trayels...
...There are fewer potential large-state candidates, however, because many of these states are lacking in senators with enough seniority to have built a national image and constituency...
...by Michael Rappeport Two basic elements in the reality of American political life, the dominance of the Senate by Southern Democrats and the control of Democratic presidential politics by men from heavily populated industrial states, are being altered by the changing pattern in reelection probabilities of senators...
...was defeated...
...Of the 15 smallest states, only one senator (Gruening of Alaska) Michael Rappeport is Director of Statistical Services at Opinion Research Corporation in Princeton, New Jersey...
...A few of the Democratic senators in this group come from large states where chances of reelection are less, but at least 14 come from small states, where, as we see, reelection is a better bet...
...POLITICAL NUMBERS: The Rise of the Small State Political Numbers, analyzing election trends, public opinion, and voting patterns, will be a continuing feature...
...Only four are in their 60s, while no less than six are under 50...
...Those who are concerned solely with the voting behavior of the 1971 Senate will see only a minute gain...
...These two changes have much to do with the fact that, for at least the last six years, the best predictor of an incumbent senator’s reelection chances has been the population of his state-the smaller the state, the better the chance...
...In this same bloc of the 19 senior senators, the nine Northerners are, on average, younger...
...Finally, there is the junior group of 14 men, including seven from the South, who arrived in the Senate in 1965 and after...
...And for the first time in presidential politics since 1924, a small state may produce a Democratic presidential candidate...
...Senators from the North and from small states, generally more liberal than their Southern counterparts, are fast inheriting the power granted by the seniority system that many of them oppose...
...Five of the nine Northerners are from small states...
...They are, for the time being, cut off from seniority by the large middle group...
...There are now three distinct seniority blocs among the 55 Democratic senators...
...Humphrey comes from the 18th largest state...
...The increasing ability of small-state politicians to be reelected, and hence acquire seniority, coupled with the aging of many of the Southern senators, means that the key positions will be taken over by men of a different ideology who are beginning to enjoy the fruits of elective longevity...
...The small-state advantage has also had its effect on presidential politics...
...These 10 men, among the most influential in the Senate, control nine committee chairmanships, including such major ones as Appropriations (Ellender, Louisiana) and Armed Services (Stennis, Mississippi...
...It is worth noting that, in an ideological sense, the real measure of the ineffectiveness of the Republican Senate campaign of 1970 is the extension, practically intact, of the group of mid-seniority Northern incumbents...
...Only one, Stuart Symington, will be 70 this year...
...In the three elections held during the last six years, only 29 of the 44 incumbents from the 25 most populated states were successful, while an incredible 43 of 47 incumbents were elected from the 25 smallest states...
...This trend may be further accelerated by the fact that eight out of 11 Southern states fall into the large category where reelection probabilities are statistically less...
...Behind the senior group is a second bloc of 22 senators elected for the first time between 1958 and 1964, and reelected sometime during the last six years...
...The first group, composed of senators elected before 1958, comprises 19 senators, 10 of them Southerners...
Vol. 3 • July 1971 • No. 5
