The New Specter

...It all seems terribly ominous, but then we read that the authors believe that “the chances of an actual military conflict” are small and that China does “not seek to use military force to occupy the territory of neighboring countries or to attack the United States...

...mer Secretaries of State, Alexander Haig and Henry Kissinger, in promoting China’s case before the Congress and the public...

...Efforts to depict Russia as a continuing menace carry decreasing credibility...

...Another cause for concern among foreign policy observers is the stage in development through which China is now passing-the process of acquiring the ability to project military power over long distances...

...They oppose Chinese membership in the World Trade Organization because it would “prohibit” the United States from taking any meaningful action in its trade disputes with China...

...We could start by determining what is within our power and what is not and by establishing what is vital to our interests and what is not...

...It could alert Beijing to certain realities: First, China’s growing power is creating anxiety in Asia...

...Will we be as unsuccessful in dealing with the rise of China, whose emergence on the world scene has been even more sudden and spectacular than that of earlier powers seeking a place in the sun...

...The end of the Cold War, after all...

...It may acquire significant military power though it will always be far less than our own...

...We do not support the rearmament of Japan but such a reaction from Tokyo will become inevitable unless a strategic dialogue involving the key states in the region and China is established...

...The United States must also “prevent” China from developing its nuclear arsenal (although we are not told how...

...hostility...

...The country simply has too many people who will be too rich and too well-placed geographically for us to prevent that...

...Indeed, to the serious student of international affairs, it is becoming clear that Russian weakness now poses a greater danger to the United States than Russian strength (if only because the world does not know what will happen if the world’s second-most-powerful nuclear power descends into anarchy...

...The problem, of course, is that China would almost certainly become our enemy if Washington were ever to adopt the program that the authors advance...

...First, it brings controversy...

...It will hold China to the same standard that it holds allies of the United States such as Turkey or Egypt or Saudi Arabia but no higher because to do otherwise would be to identify China as an unfriendly state...

...Among foreign policy professionals, there is a consensus that the current relationship is fragile...

...It almost certainly will insist that Taiwan not become an independent state though current U.S...

...It is possible for the United States to set limits to the exercise of that dominance through slullful diplomacy and strategic partnerships...

...Germany and Japan, which arrived on the scene later, used their new military capability to make a bid for regional or even global hegemony...

...China, then, is “not replacing the Soviet Union as a threat to the United States...

...Finally, the United States supports reunification of Taiwan with the mainland under conditions that preserve the freedoms of the Taiwanese people...

...1. In recent months it has been possible to detect a steady hardening of American opinion toward China both in press commentary and statements by prominent public figures...

...It is not possible for the United States at any reasonable cost to prevent China from being the dominant power in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia if it continues on its current growth trajectory...

...For frustrated Cold Warriors there could be no better candidate to replace the Soviet Union as American public enemy No...

...and that as a result the United States faces in China a challenge to its “global supremacy...

...Second, the authors’ timing is perfect...

...Munro was fired as director of the Asia Program of the Foreign Policy Research Institute because he and Bernstein refused to drop from their text all references of the well-known and documented activities of two forCHARLES WILLIAM MAYNES, formerly editor of foreign Policy, is president of the Eurasia Foundation...

...Here is a nation on the march, enjoying the highest sustained growth rates of any major power in history, comprising a quarter of the human race, spanning a continental-sized country, possessing nuclear weapons, and ruled by a communist elite...

...They would institute a form of managed trade with China, telling Beijing that unless the ratio between American exports to China and Chinese exports to the United States meets some pre-announced target-they suggest 65 percent, although why is not clear-the United States will impose trade sanctions...

...It may continue to grow and replace us as the world’s largest economy...

...The old enemy was gone, so the search for a new enemy had to begin...

...An effort to close those passages would be a casus belli for the United States...

...To cope with the problem as they confusingly define it-namely, that the U.S...

...left the United States with an enormous, diplomatic and military establishment with little to justify its existence...

...That is formally China’s position...

...Will China fit this disturbing pattern...

...Bernstein and Munro can’t decide...

...It may be possible through a strategic dialogue to set some limits to the Chinese military buildup...

...So concern about China is rapidly becoming the strategic issue of the hour...

...The New Specter China is dangerous, but the authors' suggestions are even more so by Charles William Maynes MANY GOOD BOOKS GO unread because they say the right things at the wrong time...

...Moreover, because the communist ideology is dead in China among all except perhaps a few at the very top, there is no ideological challenge from China either...

...It may demand a voice in the conduct of Asia policy though we will still have a major voice...

...Third, the Unites States is de-emphasizing the role of nuclear weapons in its military planning and wishes to enter into the kind of strategic dialogue with China on this issue that it has had with its nuclear allies and with Russia...

...They want the United States to lead the world denunciations of China for human rights abuses in such bodies as the United Nations Commission on Human Rights and UNESCO (though they do not seem aware that the United States has left the latter organization...

...policy also opposes that...

...It is increasingly clear that, for many displaced Cold Warriors, China is the prime candidate...

...The book appears precisely at the optimum moment to capitalize on a rising tide of public hysteria about China...

...Otherwise, the authors fear that China may not take our efforts to defend Taiwan seriously...

...We can set reasonable conditions for membership but if Chinese membership in the WTO is that threatening to our interests, we probably made a mistake in creating the WTO in the first place...

...if an arms race is to be avoided, a strategic dialogue with key states in the area must open...

...If so, what is the problem...

...Nevertheless, the effort the authors have made will be useful if it helps to call attention to what is potentially the most explosive bilateral relationship in the world today...

...Beijing would correctly see such a policy, particularly one that rearmed Japan, as one that endangered Chinese security and development...

...The Coming Conflict with China by Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, two veteran foreign correspondents, will enjoy success, despite flaws, for two critical reasons...

...will no longer be able to call all the shots in Asia-Bernstein and Munro advance a number of controversial proposals...

...Similarly, it is not possible for the United States, at any reasonable cost, to prevent Germany from being the dominant power in Eastern Europe or Russia, if it restores its economic health, from being the dominant power in the former Soviet Union...

...The history of Europe during the previous 200 years could be seen as a similarly bloody effort to accommodate the rise of France, first as a monarchical, then as a revolutionary power...

...Even a democratic government in Beijing would push for reunificaiton...

...It may act like a “rogue state” though it is not clear what that entails...

...They claim that Chinese leaders have set themselves the goal of replacing the United States “as the preeminent power in Asia...

...Obviously, unusually skillful diplomacy will be required to carry out this program because as the authors themselves admit at the end of their book, “It is not in the American interest to be an enemy of China...

...Similarly, it is not possible to prevent China from developing its own nuclear arsenal...

...In the cases of Britain, France, Portugal, Spain, and the United States, their abilities to project military power abroad tempted them to conquer foreign countries and establish colonial empires...

...Second, the United States as the world’s foremost naval power has a strong vested interest in freedom of the seas and regards the free passage of traffic through the ocean passages contested by China and some of its neighbors a vital national interest...

...Once it is armed, it will begin to adopt a much more independent foreign policy...

...Indeed, if Japan is armed, China is likely to move closer to Russia, a diplomatic option the authors point out Chinese strategists are already considering as they contemplate growing U.S...

...What then could the US...

...It is not possible to keep a country as important as China out of the World Trade Organization indefinitely simply on the grounds that membership will tie our hands...

...Finally and most controversially, Bernstein and Munro wish to arm Japan: “The United States cannot block Chinese hegemony in Asia unless Japan is an equal and willing partner is the process...

...Nor is it possible to contain the damage to relations with China...

...Fourth, the United States understands that compared to the days of the Cultural Revolution, China has made tremendous progress in providing its citizens with a greater measure of freedom and dignity and that the United States has no desire to target China in this area...

...It turns out that the threat is that China may be successful...

...Every day the evidence of Russian weakness accumulates...

...One view of the history of post-1850 Europe is that of a series of failed attempts to accommodate the rise of Germany-with the result being three major wars, two of which were global...

...They are also aware that the record of the international system in accommodating rising powers has generally been terrible...

...It is not possible to arm Japan and expect that state to follow supinely the American lead, as it has since World War 11...

...Much of the concern about China is understandable...

...It will prove very destructive if it simply contributes to the growing national hysteria about China and helps bring on a second Cold War...

...When other states have acquired this capability, they have posed serious problems for others...

...Finally, it is not possible to maintain a friendly relationship with China if Washington becomes the champion of Taiwanese independence...

...Such a stance might increase our efforts to promote human rights among some or our more retrograde allies while reducing the level of demagoguery in American comments about human rights in China...

...They call on Congress to suspend MFN for China, giving the administration the right to raise tariffs on Chinese goods whenever the pre-announced ratio is not met...

...In other words, the course we should follow is precisely the opposite of that urged in this book...

...On the one hand, they contend that China seeks “to dominate Asia” and that “a potential flashpoint exists for SinoAmerican conflict” in the decades ahead...

...As long as the United States continues to place such a disproportionate weight on nuclear weapons and even retains a first-use doctrine, every other major power gets the message...

...How then should the United States cope with China’s new importance...