FIGHTING WORLD WAR III WITH QUARTERS
Martin, Josh
FIGHTING WORLD WAR III WITH QUARTERS by Josh Martin A few miles outside Montgomery, Alabama, a major new addition is rising on the U.S. Air University campus at Maxwell Air Force Base....
...NW., Washington D.C...
...Robert Hellawell, New York, N.Y...
...Owners of 1 percent of more of stock in The Washington Monthly Publishing Corporation: Alfred C. Clark, New York N.Y...
...A. Total number of copies printed: (35,360) 37,500...
...But this training is producing a high-tech military elite that may not be able to distinguish the games from reality...
...Carol Trueblood, Washington, D.C...
...20009...
...Even more unrealistic is VALIMAR, developed for the Joint Chiefs of Staff to assess damage inflicted on both sides by a nuclear exchange...
...Title of publication: The Washington Monthly...
...the computers on which they are played can handle only a finite amount of information...
...Many officers already prefer the wargames because the wars are clean and fought according to plan...
...2. Returns from news agents: (4,973) 4,586...
...C. Total paid circulation: , (27,749) 24,987...
...Eleanor Rovere, Barrytown, N.Y...
...Joseph Freitas, Jr., San Francisco, Calif...
...They have become accustomed to the luxury of making split-second decisions without having to deal with the frequently messy details that can slow down the most mechanized unit...
...For example, in Arsenal Exchange Model (AEM Hedge), which involves land, sea, and air forces, geography is not explicitly considered...
...It assumes that all soldiers in a battalion will rise and charge into battle...
...Chilton III, Charleston, W Va...
...E. Total distribution: (28,676) 31,187...
...A. Whitney Ellsworth, New York, NY...
...Stuart Thayer, New York, N.Y...
...20009...
...Taylor Branch, Washington, D.C...
...Mark Laughlin...
...7. Owner: The Washington Monthly Co., an unincorporated joint venture between The Washington Monthly Corporation and The Washington Monthly Limited Partnership, of which The Washington Monthly Publishing Corporation is sole general partner...
...It makes no allowances for mud and slime, human fear (or bravery), or major equipment malfunction...
...Howard W. Young, Washington, D.C...
...Ann Peretz, Cambridge, Mass...
...Wargames have become big business, according to SAGAM...
...F. Copies not distributed: 1. Office use, left over, unaccounted, spoiled after printing (1,711) 1,727...
...John Rothchild, Miami, Fla...
...Carole Lee Smith, Salem Ore...
...Hugh Sidey, Potomac, Md...
...Carol Trueblood, Washington D.C...
...B. Paid circulation: 1. Sales through dealers and carriers, street vendors and counter sales: (2,455) 2,469...
...2. Mail subscriptions: (25,294) 22,518...
...Enemy countermeasures aren't considered...
...Owners of 1 percent or more of shares of The Washington Monthly Limited Partnership: Preston Brown, Washington, D.C...
...PKL Co., Inc., New York, N.Y...
...Since the wargames take place in staff rooms or special wargaming centers, commanders never taste the smoke and dust of combat, much less experience the killing and destruction of battle...
...Another game, REACT Model, developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency "to provide quick estimates of losses...
...Josh Martin is United Nations correspondent for Multinational Monitor...
...CIVIC III, a wargame the Defense Nuclear Agency uses to estimate civilian fatalities and casualties "resulting from the prompt fallout environments of a nuclear weapon laydown," assumes that "fallout-producing weapons will he limited to 1,500 ." But critics contend that the real figure is more likely to be in the neighborhood of 10,000...
...A. Publication No...
...Furthermore, the "enemy" is expected to act according to certain simplistic rules—a fatal error that repeatedly cost our military dearly in Vietnam...
...The top four makers have contracts with the Defense Department totaling more than $1.3 billion...
...5. Location of the headquarters or general business offices of the publishers: same 6. Names and complete addresses of publisher, editor, and managing editor: Publisher, vacant...
...They will also, because of the brief playing time of the games, become accustomed to the illusion that engagements will be quick...
...Gene Gordon, Bethesda, Md...
...G. Total: (35,360) 37,500...
...Wargames simplify situations because they must...
...Murray Kempton, New York, N.Y...
...Roger S. Kuhn, Bethesda, Md...
...8. Known bondholders, mortgagees, and other security holders owning or holding 1 percent or more of total amount of bonds, mortgages or other securities: none 9. Not applicable...
...Number of issues published annually: 11...
...4. Location of known office of publication: 1711 Connecticut Ave...
...Yet the game is played_ several hundred times a year, influencing the way the military conceives a nuclear exchange...
...The popularity of these games, and their omissions and oversimplifications, have contributed to two dangerous theories that have gained wide acceptance in the Pentagon: first, that a limited nuclear war can be fought, and second, that such a nuclear war is winnable...
...The catalog provides brief descriptions of the games, including an explanation of why each was developed...
...Video wargames have fostered similar assumptions about the conduct of conventional wars, making America's military posture in Central America as irrelevant as it was in Vietnam...
...Warren Buffett, Omaha, Neb...
...N.W., Washington, D.C...
...Owners of 1 percent or more of stock of The Washington Monthly Corporation: Timothy J. Adams, Washington, D.C...
...But it's the dirty little items that can affect the outcome of a battle or war...
...Joseph D. Crowley, New Haven, Conn...
...The Defense Department remains convinced, as one high-ranking official put it, that "our boys are working on the real thing ." A wargame developer went further, defending the validity of his products: "A video game is an end in itself, whereas a wargame is the means to the ultimate end...
...Managing editor, vacant...
...Annual subscription price: $30...
...The skill with which officers play these wargames is being used to determine their advancement in rank...
...there are guerrilla war games, ballistic missile defense games, chemical warfare TERS games, communications games, transportation and supply games, environmental effects games, economic consequences games, security games, and more...
...There are games for each branch of the military...
...there is no consideration of radioactive fallout...
...New Haven Terminal, Inc., New Haven, Conn...
...Editor, Charles G. Peters, Jr...
...Alexander Ewing, New York, N.Y...
...Sidney S. Sachs, Washington, D.C...
...Suzannah Lessard, New York, N.Y...
...2. Date of filing: October 1, 1984 3. Frequency of issue: monthly except for combined July/August issue 3A...
...It allows only 63 weapons to be used in the exchange...
...Charles Peters, Washington, D.C...
...Estate of Peter Lisagor, Arlington, Va...
...All entities at 1711 Connecticut Ave...
...James C. Thomson Jr., Cambridge, Mass...
...Fiona F. Rust, Monroe, Ore...
...In fact the games have come to dominate military thinking because they can make a complex situation conveniently simple...
...Philip M. Stern, Washington, D.C...
...They come to the games with briefcases in hand and leave the same way...
...You won't hear criticism like this on the Air University campus or in the Pentagon offices where the nation's wargaming centers are being planned...
...704640...
...Inaccuracies in the simulation—assumptions that battles are letter-perfect—can result in chaos under real battlefield conditions," notes Douglas Matthews, an analyst at the Center for Defense Information...
...Fred Stanback Jr., Salisbury, N.C...
...Designers or military planners factor out irregularities and items they don't want to face...
...While this technique is useful in training officers to make fast decisions, it leaves them ill-prepared to fight battles in real time, when a commander may have to cope with lengthy delays prior to an engagement...
...Richard Ottinger, Washington, D.C...
...while a nuclear attack is in progress," bases casualty estimates on direct effects only...
...John Spencer, Middlebury, Vt...
...At dedication ceremonies this fall, the Air University will be unveiling the world's most sophisticated wargaming center, designed to train a professional elite of officers, airmen, and civilians in the fine points of modern warfare...
...Edgar Kaiser Jr., Oakland, Ca...
...5025 V St...
...20007...
...D. Free distribution by mail, carriers or other means, samples, complimentary, and other free copies: (927) 6,200...
...Extent and nature of circulation: (Average number of copies each issue during preceding 12 months), actual number of copies of single issue published nearest to filing date...
...At least 43 corporations and universities are developing wargames...
...Joseph Rosenfield, Des Moines, Ia...
...There are at least 363 wargames, exercises, and models now being used by the defense establishment, with an estimated 50 nuclear wars and thousands of smaller conflicts—sea battles, air fights, tank maneuvers, etc.—taking place daily...
...Russell Baker, New York, N.Y...
...Kanawha Banking and Trust, Trustee for John D. Rockefeller IV, Charleston, W. Va...
...NW., Washington, D.C...
...The Catalogue of Wargaming and Military Simulation Models, put out by the Studies Analysis and Gaming Agency (SAGAM) of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is the most complete list available of computerized wargames in active use...
...For example, ARTBASS (Army Training Battle Simulator System), developed by the Combined Arms Training Activity at Fort Leavenworth's Army Command and General Staff College, is a mobile wargame that can be shipped around the country and hooked up at bases to train battalion commanders and staffs in small-scale troop maneuvers...
...As a result, games meant to teach the facts of war alter or discard those facts as computers and game plans demand...
...The wargaming center is similar to ones already set up at other service academies, a new method of training that is changing the military's concept of war and combat in the nuclear age...
...James Fallows, Washington, D.C...
...You won't see perfect mobilization or execution ." This is true particularly in the nuclear-related games, where key elements of a real nuclear engagement are omitted...
...I certify that the 'statements made by me above are correct and complete...
...Statement of Ownership, Management and Circulation (Required by 39 USC 3685)1...
...Another game, NUWEP, designed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, tells the player whether the deployment 9f nuclear weapons in a major battle is practical...
...Even in those instances when the game is played in real time, players lose the sense of physically being at war...
...As a result, military officers now rising through the ranks are the first whose war experience may be limited largely to computerized simulations...
...Similar omissions haunt NUBAM (Nuclear Weapons Battlefield Analysis Model), which "measures the effectiveness of different tactical nuclear weapons where the measurable damage mechanism is the neutron and gamma radiation to personnel ." Unfortunately, it doesn't calculate the effects of the blast and the heat radiation...
Vol. 16 • October 1984 • No. 9
