Marriage at the Polls

...Michigan pollster Ed Sarpolus sees a different dynamic at work: "The over-50 group is open to Bush on the civil union issue...

...In those states, the economy is paramount...

...Alan Melamed, campaign manager for Ohioans Protecting the Constitution, estimates his campaign would need $3.5 million to $5 million to have a chance of prevailing...

...This was the first vote on the issue in the country since the Massachusetts supreme court imposed gay marriage in that state, creating a high-profile national issue in the process...

...In Butler County, in rural southeastern Missouri, voters favored the amendment 8 to 1. According to state GOP spokesman Paul Sloca, in rural Missouri, "there are a lot of close-knit families...

...The Ohio and Michigan measures don't just affirm traditional marriage—they also ban such benefits...

...They needed to obtain signatures from more than 5 percent of registered voters in at least 44 of the state's 88 counties...

...A March poll by the Columbus Dispatch backs up his assessment: It found 69 percent of respondents from southeastern Ohio supported an amendment to the U.S...

...Where will the Kerry campaign stand on the various state ballot initiatives...

...Perhaps, but recent history suggests otherwise...

...Should the economy improve and the bad news from Iraq recede, voters there are more likely to make gay marriage a voting issue...

...If it does, 11 states will have marriage amendments on the ballot this November...

...However, political observers in those states don't discount the possible significance of the marriage amendments...

...First, unemployment is higher there...

...In Arkansas, Bush may not need an assist...

...In 2000, Bush won Ohio by only 165,000 votes out of 4.7 million cast...

...Among most election experts, not to mention some Republican operatives, the notion that state ballot initiatives on gay marriage could tip the presidential race is considered fanciful...

...He already leads Kerry there, and many political observers believe Bush will win regardless of the marriage amendment...

...We don't really know until Kerry stops focusing on commander in chief issues and starts talking in this state about health care, but [the opening] is there...

...And the marriage amendment mobilized many of those voters...

...And the vote wasn't close...

...Although not conclusive, the evidence suggests that if there's a second Bush administration, Phil Burress may deserve an invitation to the White House...

...Bush is trailing by 5 to 8 percentage points in each state, according to the latest polls...

...From late May to August 3, his group collected 392,000 signatures—a figure initiative groups usually reach only after twice as much time...

...Ohio may be the state where it matters most...

...I was expecting a turnout of 1 million, maybe," says David Webber, a professor of political science at the University of Missouri-Columbia, "but not 1.5 million...

...Constitution, while only 55 percent from central Ohio did...

...Still, Cal Ledbetter, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, estimates the gay marriage issue will draw 5,000 to 10,000 more voters to the polls, especially in the Republican-rich northwestern part of the state...

...The biggest problem is Iraq," says Oregon pollster Tim Hibbitts...

...Burress is the chairman of the Ohio Campaign to Protect Marriage, a coalition seeking to put an initiative on the ballot in November that would amend the state's constitution to ban homosexual marriage altogether and domestic partnership benefits for public employees...

...Ohioans have shown intense opposition to the possibility of legalizing homosexual marriage...

...Nearly 40,000 more Mis-sourians voted on the amendment (1,495,300) than in the gubernatorial primaries (one of which cost Democratic governor Bob Holden his job...

...He has made a point of taking the same public stance on gay marriage as George W. Bush: He's against it...

...It could if it was played up enough against him," says Ken Warren, who now teaches at St...

...Since 1968 the "Social Issue" has been a major factor in helping Republicans win six of the last nine presidential elections...

...In the Cincinnati area, in the southwestern parts of the state, people are clearly worried that courts are defining this issue, that they're weakening marriage," he says...

...I haven't heard anything" from the Kerry campaign, he says, adding with a laugh: "But if they want to give us a check, we're more than happy to accept it...

...One aide acknowledges that Bush would be particularly helped in southern Ohio...

...Still, opponents of the two marriage amendments aren't holding their breath for Kerry's support...

...The same fervent opposition was evident in the August 3 primary in Missouri, which featured a state constitutional amendment defining marriage as exclusively between a man and a woman...

...A former Democratic pollster concedes the vote could be a vulnerability for Kerry...

...Everyone is running to get these things...

...Louis university...

...Even longtime observers of Missouri politics professed awe at the results...

...In a different year [gay marriage] could have been a devastating issue, but voters are talking about the economy and Iraq...

...I would not be surprised by a 2 to 4 percent increase in turnout," says Kevin Mannix, chairman of the Oregon Republican party...

...By early september, they will likely collect another 100,000 signatures, because Ohio law allows groups to do so in the event that some petitions are thrown out...

...How many Ohioans will be energized by the marriage amendment is hard to say...

...dential campaign...

...But that's unlikely to be the case in states with ballot measures on the issue...

...According to a late February study by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 45 percent of voters 65 years and older and 40 percent of voters with a high school degree or less said they would not vote for a candidate who supported gay marriage...

...University of Akron political scientist John Green estimates that the spike in turnout could be 4 to 5 percent, adding another 200,000 votes...

...Despite his professed opposition, though, Kerry voted against the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996—an effort by Congress to prevent judges from imposing gay marriage in states that don't want it...

...When Ben Wattenberg and Richard Scammon coined the term in their 1970 classic The Real Majority, the Social Issue comprised race, crime, and values...

...With extensive get-out-the-vote efforts from both parties, I don't think these ballot initiatives in the states will make much difference," says analyst Charlie Cook...

...According to an April poll by the Columbus Dispatch, 78 percent of Ohioans want to ban it—hence, the enthusiasm for Burress's petitions...

...There's been no comment...

...Could the amendment fights in those four states affect the outcome of the presiMark Stricherz is a writer living in Washington, D.C...

...Although Bill Clinton helped diminish the importance of the first two, Democrats continue to stumble over values...

...According to a recent Gallup poll, gay marriage ranks near the bottom of voters' top 15 concerns...

...they ended up getting enough in 79...

...They can't even comprehend the idea of two men getting married...

...Voters in both states lean Republican and are socially conservative...

...The results have not escaped the notice of Bush advisers...

...Cass County, an exurb south of Kansas City, favored the amendment by nearly 4 to 1. Indeed, although Cass County is a GOP stronghold, more voters there voted to ban gay marriage (20,264) than voted for Bush in the general election four years ago (20,113...

...as of July, the figures were 6.9 percent in Oregon and 6.5 percent in Michigan...

...But while the numbers favor Bush in Ohio, other factors work against him in Oregon and Michigan...

...If this were 1988, with Willie Horton and Boston Harbor, I could maybe see it, but this election is going to be about the economy, the war on terror, and the war in Iraq...

...I got a knock on the door at 8 the other night from a Muslim who said, 'We want you to help at our [mosque],'" he says wearily...

...Not surprisingly, rejection of homosexual marriage runs deepest among this bloc...

...Publicly, Kerry favors banning gay and lesbian marriages at the state level while supporting domestic partnership benefits...

...Many live in small towns and exurbs, don't belong to unions but do go to church, and tend to be older and working class...

...From those results Webber deduces that voters in Ohio could react similarly...

...Almost 43 percent of the state's registered voters cast ballots, shattering the previous mark for a primary of 36.5 percent set in 1992...

...He took the position in May, and ever since folks have been contacting him at all hours asking to get his petition forms...

...Burress exaggerates only a bit...

...That could be hugely significant...

...Second, because both states lean Democratic, their voters view the Iraq War more negatively...

...Most observers expect the measure will qualify...

...John Kerry is not unaware of this history...

...Among them are four states expected to be competitive in the presidential race—Ohio, Michigan, Oregon, and Arkansas...