Two, Three, Many Seats
BARNES, FRED
Two, Three, Many Seats Republicans have high hopes for Senate pickups in 2004. BY FRED BARNES CONGRESSMAN RICHARD BURR is "the perfect candidate," says Sen. George Allen of Virginia, in what may...
...He's energetic, likable, and anything but strident...
...Congressman Johnny Isakson is the strongest Republican in Georgia and should be able to beat Democrat Andy Young, who's been the mayor of Atlanta, a member of the House, and the ambassador to the United Nations...
...Bush will be on the ballot in 2004, and he's quite popular in North Carolina...
...A scenario that seems obvious and unassailable can implode...
...But dreams, expectations, even empirically grounded predictions are often not realized in politics...
...The best guess now is that Republicans gain four Senate seats in the South, lose Illinois and perhaps Alaska...
...Bush barnstormed through Georgia and North Carolina on the eve of the 2002 election, galvanizing Republicans and stirring them to vote...
...In South Carolina, an ugly Democratic primary fight between school superintendent Inez Tennen-baum and Columbia mayor Bob Coble will make a Republican victory even more probable than it already is...
...In Illinois, with an open seat because Republican senator Peter Fitzgerald is retiring, the White House urged former (but still popular) governor Jim Edgar to run...
...He almost said yes, then declined, and now the seat will probably go to a Democrat...
...A Burr victory, picking up the Democratic seat Edwards is vacating, would be a critical part of a Republican success story in gaining Senate Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...No doubt Bowles will dwell on that issue and blame Bush and Burr...
...He's a former defensive back for Wake Forest University...
...The likely Republican candidate is congressman Jim DeMint...
...Helms uses a wheelchair these days, but he told Burr, "I'll let you push me wherever you want to...
...The Burr race in North Carolina is central to Republican success...
...A Republican sweep would include victories in South Carolina, where Democratic senator Fritz Hollings is retiring, and Georgia, where Democrat Zell Miller is quitting after less than one term...
...Dean, who's been dubbed "McGovern on steroids," could drag down Democratic candidates in conservative states...
...Republicans have a shot of netting up to five Senate seats...
...In Washington, Republican congresswoman Jennifer Dunn rejected pleas to challenge Democratic senator Patty Murray...
...In South Dakota, ex-congressman John Thune has not decided whether to take on Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle...
...In 2000, he carried the state by 13 points...
...He has a conservative voting record, but a moderate image...
...In Nevada, Republican congressman Jim Gibbons is passing up a contest against Democratic senator Harry Reid...
...Homeland security turned out to be pivotal...
...seats in 2004...
...A third factor, a liberal Democratic presidential nominee like Howard Dean, could cinch the deal for Republicans...
...Without Graham, the odds would be roughly 50-50 on a Republican pickup...
...For Republicans in the South, the last-minute injection of presidential support—what Burr calls the "Georgia model"—will probably be missing in 2004...
...That's the Republican dream scenario, at any rate...
...And he has the advantage of support across the board from Republicans...
...George Allen of Virginia, in what may be a perfect year for a Republican to run for the Senate in North Carolina...
...Both declined...
...Brad Woodhouse of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee points out that Republicans had trouble recruiting candidates...
...Jobs is something I talk about frequently," Burr says...
...So here's how it adds up...
...The makeup of the Senate today is 51-49 Republican, counting Vermont's Jim Jeffords, supposedly an independent, as a Democrat...
...Bowles is Burr's likely opponent next year...
...And the only two Democrats to win— John Edwards in 1998 and Terry Sanford in 1986—succeeded in non-presidential years...
...Jobs are an enormous problem in North Carolina...
...Frank Murkowski, a Republican, named his daughter Lisa to replace him in the Senate...
...Bowles has money—he spent $6.5 million of personal wealth against Dole—and excellent name recognition...
...Now if he were a moderate Republican, Bowles would be unbeatable...
...History is on Burr's side...
...Absent Breaux, a reasonable Republican candidate would be favored in Louisiana...
...They thought the weak economy would doom Republican candidates for the House and Senate...
...But Republicans may lose a shoo-in incumbent, Don Nickles of Oklahoma, who is yet to announce his intentions...
...Then there's Alaska...
...But there's a catch...
...But no...
...GOP leaders and the White House helped clear the field for Burr...
...Such a candidate would fare poorly in three open Democratic seats in the South (North and South For Republicans in the South, the last-minute injection of presidential support—what Burr calls the "Georgia model"—will probably be missing in 2004...
...North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Florida—that's five potential Republican pickups...
...Carolina and Georgia) and the two that might become open (Louisiana and Florida...
...Democrats suffered exactly that in 2002...
...The fondest Republican hope is that two more Democratic senators retire: John Breaux of Louisiana and Bob Graham of Florida...
...But next year Bush is all but certain to take Southern states (except Florida) for granted and concentrate his campaign time on battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa...
...Bush adviser Karl Rove not only encouraged Burr to run, he spoke at a fundraiser in Win-ston-Salem last April that raised $680,000 for Burr's campaign...
...She's proved to be a capable enough senator, but she's a pro-choice moderate in a conservative state...
...The textile industry has collapsed, furniture manufacturing is declining, and technology and banking jobs are beginning to dry up, if not leaving the state...
...Republican congressman George Nethercutt has stepped in, but he's from eastern Washington and most of the state's voters are in the west...
...Maybe the situation in Iraq and/or the economy will sour...
...Bush and Republicans hammered away at the issue and won seats in the first midterm election, the one that's supposed to go badly for a new president's party...
...Worse, the only Democrat with a chance of beating her, ex-governor Tony Knowles, is running...
...If he chooses not to, Daschle is safe...
...Which depends on several things, two of which are probable (I think): an improved economy that numerous indicators now point to and a safer, more stable Iraq...
...And they figured they'd inoculated themselves by passing an Iraq war resolution...
...This did not go down well with other Republicans, much less Democrats...
...Last year, Bush aided Elizabeth Dole in her 9-point victory for the Senate over Democrat Erskine Bowles, once chief of staff at the Clinton White House...
...That's based on the emergence of a good economy, a better Iraq, and the reelection of Bush...
...He's no powerhouse, but neither is she...
...He's generally perceived as a moderate...
...Also, a Democratic breakthrough in Oklahoma, with a Senate candidate such as moderate congressman Brad Carson, is conceivable...
...In any case, Burr is no more than a narrow favorite at this point, largely because North Carolina has been trending Republican...
...Democrats, by the way, would be ecstatic if they hold Republicans to the current 51-49 edge...
...In Arkansas, both governor Mike Huckabee and Drug Enforcement Administration head Asa Hutchin-son would have been strong Republican challengers of Democratic senator Blanche Lincoln...
...So what could go wrong for Republicans...
...Lots of things...
...She may have a serious primary challenge...
...So Burr will have to defeat Bowles on his own...
...He lost to Dole in 2002, but the race was a dead heat until it broke open in the final days...
...A strong economy nationally may not halt the job drain in North Carolina...
...Republicans have won seven of the last nine Senate races in North Carolina...
...Bowles is one of the Democrats' best non-incumbent candidates...
...In fact, former senator Jesse Helms, the conservative icon, has offered to stump for Burr...
...In Burr, he faces an opponent without Dole's star power...
...Burr knows more about health care than practically any member of Congress—a valuable quality in an era when Medicare reform and prescription drug benefits are perennial issues...
...In North Dakota, Republican former governor Ed Schaeffer said no to a race against Democratic senator Byron Dorgan...
...He has the enthusiastic support of the Bush White House...
Vol. 9 • September 2003 • No. 2
