Earley to Bed?
BARNES, FRED
Earley to Bed? Democrat Mark Warner threatens the GOP hold on Virginia. BY FRED BARNES In 1998, on the day Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska dropped out of the 2000 Democratic presidential race, Steve...
...Mark Warner is ready to lead our commonwealth, / He'll work for mountain people and economic health, / Get ready to shout it from the coal mines to the hills, / Here comes Mark Warner, the hero of the hills...
...In past gubernatorial races, these issues simply located Democratic candidates in voters' minds as liberals...
...But if voters in northern Virginia want to do so, that's a different story...
...But money isn't the decisive factor...
...Jarding, 43, was Kerrey's chief political strategist...
...More important, Warner has courted the National Rifle Association, normally a no-no for Democrats...
...I believe strongly in Second Amendment rights," he says...
...He's raised $12.4 million, about 30 percent more than Earley, with $800,000 coming from his personal fortune of $200 million (made in the cellular phone industry...
...Don't we all...
...Next was the business community...
...Jarding had done the same in Tom Daschle's first Senate race in South Dakota in 1986 and in Bob Kerrey's two successful Senate campaigns in Nebraska in 1988 and 1994...
...he said in a televised debate with Mark Earley, his Republican opponent...
...One by one, Warner and Jarding have broken down the obstacles to statewide success for a Democrat...
...In a backhanded tribute, a Republican official says Warner "has done a masterful job of fooling people...
...Have I gotten more conservative as I've grown older...
...Senate seats and 8 of 11 House seats, and where President Bush won easily last fall...
...But the Warner campaign has one drawback: He's not identified with any issue or position...
...Thus, it may not be a sweeping enough issue to grab voters...
...Rather than concentrating on a striking new tax cut, as Republican Jim Gilmore did in winning the governor's race in 1997, Ear-ley chiefly warns about a tax increase if his opponent wins...
...He backs the referendum...
...Earley's response: "You're not looking for a referendum to raise taxes unless you want to raise taxes...
...Business backing, says Jarding, is an important "verifier" that Warner isn't a liberal...
...The reason for Warner's eagerness: Jarding specializes in helping Democratic candidates win in Republican states...
...His support is wide but shallow...
...It won't make the Top 40 charts, but it's effective...
...Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia says Warner has "run a Cadillac campaign...
...The message, it turns out, is a hardy perennial for Republicans: taxes...
...The good side of this for Warner is that Earley, the former state attorney general, has had difficulty finding a vulnerability to attack...
...He also recruited enough moderate Republicans, including former governor Lin-wood Holton, to form Virginians for Warner...
...A money advantage has aided Warner...
...Warner's shift to the right has put him in a strong position to be elected governor Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...It's a traffic issue," he says, since the $900 million would go for new roads to ease traffic congestion...
...Bush had planned a quick trip across the Potomac River to northern Virginia on September 19, but that was cancelled...
...What most voters know about him is he's a vaguely moderate fellow who passionately wants to be elected to statewide office...
...The key is getting President Bush to stump for him...
...He sponsors a NASCAR driver...
...He got a country music band to come up with a bluegrass song for his campaign...
...And he wants to expand Project Exile, which provides quick prosecution of criminals who use guns and is touted by the NRA as an alternative to gun control...
...But that increase would occur only if a referendum were passed by voters in northern Virginia, and the tax increase would apply only in that region...
...The NRA initially was neutral in the race, which amounted to a victory for Warner...
...Probably...
...In Virginia, though, the biggest concern among Republicans is that Mark Warner may bring a decade of GOP domination to a halt...
...This gives Earley a shot at winning, if he can excite the GOP base...
...Warner picked off a number of normally Republican business leaders and was endorsed by realtors and the Farm Bureau...
...Ear-ley wasted the summer and didn't find a message until September—after party officials dispatched Chris LaCivita, the political director of the National Senatorial Republican Committee, to run his campaign...
...Bob Kerrey of Nebraska dropped out of the 2000 Democratic presidential race, Steve Jarding got a call from Mark Warner, a wealthy Virginia politician looking to be governor...
...Virginia, however, has required more effort...
...Jarding argues it's not even a tax issue...
...Plus, notes Earley, there's a "security concern...
...He's changed his position on guns, taxes, ending parole, welfare reform—and become a moderate...
...But Earley was seeking a lastminute NRA endorsement...
...In his transportation plan, Warner left an opening...
...Some Republican legislators favor the referendum, but Earley says if elected governor, he'd block it...
...Now Warner wanted him, though Jarding is from South Dakota and had never worked in an election in Virginia...
...The first problem was rural voters, who'd shifted massively to the GOP Warner, 46, not only has made 40 visits to southwest Virginia, he's sought to become culturally rural as well...
...For his part, Warner says he won't raise taxes...
...Earley, by the way, also advocates trimming the sales tax on food, but he failed to mention it in either of the televised debates with Warner...
...The Warner-Jarding alliance has worked wonders...
...And he has stayed away from hot-button "locating" issues like abortion rights and gun control...
...And no state, not even Texas, has trended Republican more sharply in the past decade than Virginia...
...Warner's methodical morphing into a different kind of Democrat is...
...With voters distracted by the September 11 attacks and the war on terrorism, turnout is likely to be low...
...It has to be a series of events across the state and a day that will electrify the Republican base and independents," says Sabato...
...Warner, who ran against GOP senator John Warner in 1996 as a conventional liberal, has undergone a transformation...
...The plan includes $900 million from a sales tax hike...
...on November 6—this in a state where Republicans currently occupy all statewide offices, control both houses of the legislature, and hold the two U.S...
...Given the war, that may be asking for too much of Bush's time...
...Mark," he told Earley in a TV debate, "trust the voters...
...The trouble with Earley's tax issue is it's negative...
Vol. 7 • October 2001 • No. 7
