Our Ambivalent China Policy

...Indeed, given our modest response to date, it shouldn’t come as a shock that a debate has begun in Japan over whether Japan should acquire nuclear arms of its own...

...The United States now had troops and bases at China's backdoor...

...Add to this the new military-to-military ties between the United States and the Philippines, and the growing cooperation between Washington and New Delhi, and Chinese strategic thinkers had to wonder whether America's war on terrorism wasn't just an excuse to tighten the security noose around Beijing's neck...

...Next, China's extensive effort over the past few years to create an anti-hegemonic bloc—that is, an anti-U.S...

...The overall picture is that of a leadership in a hurry to change the military balance in East Asia...

...First, Japan took the unprecedented step of authorizing its military to operate outside its surrounding waters in order to assist U.S...

...But “national honor” is a slippery concept, and predictions about what will offend, and hence trigger a response, are at best educated guesses...

...Beijing counts on Tokyo's docility in security affairs, and the last thing it wanted to contemplate was Japan's shaking off its "pacific" past...

...As Sinologists have pointed out over the years, the current Chinese regime’s legitimacy rests on its ability not only to promote economic growth but also to protect the country’s honor...

...Then there is the recent statement by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz on his May trip to the region in which he poured cold water on the idea of creating new security arrangements among the democratic states of Asia...

...Hence, changing these regimes becomes a strategic imperative...

...At that point, we may well be kicking ourselves for not having taken advantage of the present opportunity to shore up security in a region of vital interest...

...Yet, apart from some early rhetorical blasts, Beijing's reaction has been relatively restrained...

...Of course, if this view becomes the basis for U.S...

...The "axis of evil"—notably Iran, Iraq, and North Korea, all on friendly terms with China—consists of governments that cannot be trusted with weapons of mass destruction...

...But it is shortsighted...

...On his trip to Asia in February, the president made clear what his new emphasis would mean for the region...

...Washington should so conduct relations as to leave no room for the Chinese to doubt that the United States is able and willing to turn aside any challenge they pose...

...It's hard to say exactly why, given the closed character of China's government, but the most obvious explanation is that Beijing is preoccupied with domestic issues—especially a change in leadership at this fall's Communist party conference, and the difficult economic and social challenges posed by China's admission to the World Trade Organization...

...By contrast, just before the 2000 election in the United States, a government-sponsored study co-chaired by Richard Armitage, now deputy secretary of state, had urged that the United States encourage Japan to do precisely that...

...And Beijing continues to add to the hundreds of medium- and intermediate-range missiles capable of hitting Taiwan and other neighbors already in its deployed arsenal...

...Gary Schmitt is executive director at the Project for the New American Century...

...What remains to be seen is whether the Bush administration will take full advantage of this new situation...

...First, he indicated that his vision "for the security of the Asia-Pacific region" was tied to the "fellowship of free Pacific nations...

...policy toward China, it can only produce paralysis...

...These acquisitions do not go unnoticed by our friends in the region...

...Once China’s leaders catch on to what is guiding Washington— as they did with the Clinton administration—their expectations about Taiwan and their own place in the region will only grow...

...As Michael Swaine of the Carnegie Endowment has recently written, we do “not know where all of Beijing’s internal lines in the sand lie...

...Second, he reaffirmed America's "commitments to the people of Taiwan...

...For one thing, the administration has been sitting on the Pentagon's con-gressionally mandated report on the Chinese military...

...At the moment, it’s not clear which strategic path the administration will choose...

...bloc—blew apart...

...China will see this as a challenge...

...Although the report has been finished for some time, it has been buried because it makes a convincing case that China's military sees the United States as its primary foe and that China's growing capabilities pose a real threat to the region's peace and stability...

...policy is headed...

...This comes on top of the PLA’s previous purchases of state-of-the-art Russian destroyers, supersonic cruise missiles, antiaircraft missiles, and scores of new fighterbombers...

...Finally, the administration should follow through on the president’s idea of creating a new security framework that integrates the democratic states of the Asia-Pacific theater...

...And, third, he pointedly rejected the idea that Western-style liberties had no relevance to China's future, arguing instead that the United States would continue to challenge China's rule in the name of the "universal values that gave our nation birth...

...While this decision was viewed in Washington as a sign that Japan might be willing to start assuming the obligations of a normal great power, it surprised and shook the Chinese leadership...

...They may even favor putting on the back burner plans to upgrade military ties with Taiwan or expand defense cooperation among our democratic allies in the Pacific in order to reassure China that we have no intention of pushing our advantage...

...Nor will such a policy succeed in preventing crisis...

...And within the past two weeks, press accounts have had Beijing buying eight more Kilo-class Russian submarines—this in addition to the four already acquired—and testing Russian-made air-to-air missiles (AA-12) that could significantly increase Chinese air combat capabilities...

...The “let well enough alone” school has plenty of supporters...

...Those who support soft-pedaling our response to China’s military build-up and putting on hold policy initiatives that might cause consternation in Beijing argue that, given all its current and imminent preoccupations (like Iraq), Washington doesn’t need another arena for dispute...

...Despite the fact that President Bush spoke during his campaign of working “toward a day when the fellowship of free Pacific nations is as strong and united as our Atlantic partnership,” Wolfowitz told reporters that he didn’t think this was “possible in Asia or even probably at this stage desirable...

...Chinese military spending leapt more than 17 percent this year...

...At the end of the day, China’s ambitions make a contest inevitable...

...Furthermore, whatever moderation China is exhibiting on the diplomatic front, it continues headlong in its effort to undermine America’s security guarantees in the region...

...Moreover, with the 2008 Olympics on Beijing's plate, China's leaders are probably reluctant to do anything that might cause the international community to question that decision or keep their athletes at home, as the United States did in 1980 after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan...

...As for how Washington in turn should respond, it's clear that the foreign policy bureaucracy, most Sinologists, and quite a few senior policymakers are content to leave well enough alone...

...Beijing shows no sign of slowing its military modernization, and sometime soon—perhaps when the leadership shuffle has been settled—China’s ambitions toward Taiwan and the region will aggressively resurface...

...This means, among other things, working more aggressively with Taiwan to improve its defenses...

...Beijing was bound to wonder whether Japan's participation in Afghanistan was the first step toward its becoming America's "Pacific Britain...

...Their goal will be to avoid giving China any reason to reverse its present moderation...

...This will lead China, sooner or later, to take some step that requires a firm, perhaps military, response from Washington...

...None of this was good news to Beijing...

...But for whatever reasons, it appears that Beijing wants to avoid for the time being a serious confrontation with the United States...

...To begin with, it's important to be clear about what has actually happened in the region since September 11...

...Privately, our friends and allies are wondering whether we intend to meet the challenge...

...The truth is that the United States can put off competition with China only so long...

...In the Asia-Pacific theater, in particular, the attacks and their aftermath have created a new dynamic that may work to the advantage of the United States in its competition with China for regional leadership...

...And there is evidence, in fact, that this is where U.S...

...Then, of course, there is the Bush Doctrine itself, a doctrine that sees the character of regimes as the critical factor in determining state behavior...

...For that reason, the United States should be taking advantage of China’s current preoccupation with its internal affairs to strengthen our hand in the region...

...Given the pressures of the moment, this is not surprising...

...Everything becomes a potential source of conflict except steps to appease Beijing...

...Within days of September 11, Moscow had cast its lot with Washington, as did the various "stans" of Asia, including Beijing's longtime friend Pakistan...

...Conversely, the Bush Doctrine puts a premium on working with, depending on, and expanding the realm of liberal democratic states...

...military operations in Afghanistan...

...indeed, the Chinese themselves may not know...

...But once in place, it will reassure our allies, strengthen deterrence, and help the young democracies of the region stay the course...

...Moreover, there is the underlying problem of deciphering Chinese intentions...

...The United States also needs to improve its own military capabilities by buying the right new systems to project power over the Pacific theater’s vast spaces and by acquiring the additional basing rights needed to ensure access in times of crisis...