On a Big Issue, Bush Goes Wobbly

BARNES, FRED

On a Big Issue, Bush Goes Wobbly Why is the president endorsing a provisional Palestinian state? BY FRED BARNES IT'S THE BIG ISSUES that matter in President Bush's brand of conservatism. So he's...

...An aide says the president is convinced the Palestinian people need "a reason for hope...
...After Bush first declared himself in favor of Palestinian statehood in a speech to the United Nations last November, a doubtful White House official said privately: "We should be in the business of destroying terrorist states, not creating them...
...In effect, the run-up to provisional statehood (so named because the borders would be provisional) would mark either the decline and fall of Arafat or his elevation to figurehead status, Bush aides say...
...In the Pakistan-India standoff, Bush wasn't outspoken, but he exerted most of his pressure on the perpetrator of terrorism, Pakistan, and not on India, the victim...
...If so, the Saudis really have changed...
...It's a different story with the smaller issues...
...Despite Arafat's failures, Bush has decided to make still another conces-sion—unless he unexpectedly cancels his speech announcing the statehood plan...
...Bush told a Republican fund-raiser last week, "I love peace...
...And a terrorist state is exactly what some officials fear Bush will be hastening with his new proposal...
...Bush also had harsh words for Arafat, saying he has declined to confront or control terrorists...
...Bush doesn't seem worried about this possibility...
...Arafat and other Palestinian leaders are every bit as implicated in terrorism as the Pakistanis...
...They didn't stop, particularly terrorism against Israelis...
...A big issue is involved here, but on this one, Bush has been neither strong nor principled...
...Though Bush's embrace of an interim state is highly conditional, his plan will be harmful to him nonethe-less—morally, strategically, and politically...
...The result: a provisional terrorist state...
...Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat has failed to deliver a promised speech denouncing suicide bombings, and he hasn't arrested any Palestinian terrorists either...
...Condoleezza Rice, Bush's national security adviser, told the San Jose Mercury News that Arafat's Palestinian Authority will "not be the basis for a Palestinian state moving forward...
...Last week, with the deal off the table, Arafat said he'd accept it...
...This arrangement satisfies most conservatives and a lot of moderates and independents...
...Yet they're to be rewarded...
...They're the new kid on the block and they're sending all the right signals," a Bush aide says...
...Then, he made only a fleeting reference to "two states, Israel and Palestine...
...Arafat has warded off bigger threats than a new institutional scheme...
...Bush isn't guilty of flip-flopping on a Palestinian state...
...Palestinians, and they're the prime exporter of radical, anti-American Islam around the world...
...But in April, prodded by the saudis, Bush elaborated on the statehood theme...
...sure, he's issued statements condemning terrorism, but those fault terrorism for causing bad PR for Palestinians...
...In the Middle East, however, he's lost his moral bearings...
...In truth, he's been on a slippery slope since his United Nations address last fall...
...The moral angle is quite simple: He's rewarding Palestinian terrorism...
...Though Bush's embrace of an interim Palestinian state is highly conditional, it will harm him nonetheless— morally, strategically, and politically...
...More than two months have passed and Arafat still hasn't clamped down on Palestinian terrorists...
...Many believe peace overtures to the Palestinians are wrong morally and politically...
...The United States is on record supporting the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people for a Palestinian state," he said...
...The political problem for Bush is his own administration and party are deeply divided...
...But if the saudis truly want to promote peace in the Middle East, they'll allow American planes to use their bases when and if military action is taken against Iraq...
...The problem comes when the president retreats on a big issue, as he's about to do by proposing a "provisional" Palestinian state...
...The strategic problem involves the president's alliance with saudi Arabia, home of 15 of the 19 September 11th hijackers...
...Don't bet on it...
...Will the Saudis insist on pushing Arafat to the periphery, siding with Bush against Arafat and his thugocracy...
...And he said "incitement, violence, and terror" must stop...
...So he's strong and principled on taxes, cloning, the Kyoto treaty, the war on terrorism, Iraq, missile defense, and federal judges...
...Yet his regime would suddenly be moved a large step closer to full statehood...
...For one thing, tough conditions will be required before statehood occurs, one of which is a total halt in terrorism against Israel...
...Bush strays on them—education, trade, farm subsidies, ethnic profiling, campaign finance reform—for shamelessly pragmatic purposes...
...And Bush would also weaken his brave and lonely support of Israel as it suffers relentless terrorist attacks...
...The saudis have never played a helpful role in promoting a peace settlement between Israelis and Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...One reason they haven't tumbled is Bush's moral approach to international affairs...
...This time, the aide says, they're pressuring Arafat to do the right thing, such as crack down on terrorists...
...Since September 11, political professionals have been amazed at Bush's persistently high poll numbers...
...He's spoken with moral clarity, producing a Bush doctrine that says both terrorists and those who harbor them are the enemies of the civilized world...
...Oh, yeah...
...Their expectation is the Palestinians won't meet the conditions, but they'll get provisional statehood anyway, if only because Arab states, the European Union, the United Nations, Russia, and nearly every other country in the world will insist on it...
...Administration officials say the saudis are being unbelievably helpful now...
...Moreover, the plan would promote new institutions of government among the Palestinians, institutions that would circumvent Arafat and marginalize him...
...More often than not, his aim is to prove his conservatism really is compassionate or to broaden his political base...
...In 2000, when Arafat was offered generous terms for a Palestinian state encompassing nearly all of the West Bank and all of Gaza, the saudis did nothing to pressure him to accept, and Arafat rejected the deal...
...Administration officials say interim statehood isn't really a concession to Arafat...
...That has moral undertones as well...

Vol. 7 • July 2002 • No. 41


 
Developed by
Kanda Sofware
  Kanda Software, Inc.