The Bush Strategy for the Middle East
BARNES, FRED
The Bush Strategy for the Middle East Yes, he has one. BY FRED BARNES PRESIDENT BUSH only looks like he's operating by the seat of his pants in Middle East policy. Actually he has a three-pronged...
...At Oslo and elsewhere, Chairman Arafat renounced terror as an instrument of his cause, and he agreed to control it," the president said...
...The fundamental idea behind the strategy is to give aid and comfort to Israel, but without Bush ever saying so explicitly...
...Now, it will be up to Bush to hold Arafat accountable if the Powell mission fails because Arafat declines to crack down on terrorists...
...But that would have left Bush looking like a president who refuses to step forward and lead...
...Bush said Arafat "has agreed to a peace process [and] has negotiated with parties as to how to achieve peace...
...Instead, the president couched his favoritism toward Israel in an endorsement of Israel's right to defend itself against terrorist assaults...
...He indicated leaders in the Middle East would be judged by how they proceed "in word and deed against terrorist acts...
...Bush's comments, plus everything we know he believes about Arafat, point to this being Arafat's one last chance...
...So the costs, as perceived by the White House, were wider upheaval in the Middle East, harm to so-called moderate Arab states, alienation of other countries, a reversal of Egypt's historic recognition of Israel, a roadblock to moving against Iraq, and potential political harm to Bush...
...British prime minister Tony Blair said the violence between Israel and the Palestinians needed to be curbed before joint U.S.-British action against Iraq could be taken...
...What happened last week, when the president called on Israel to pull back its troops and dispatched Secretary of State Colin Powell to the Middle East, was that part three, America's other interests, became more urgent than number one, giving Sharon a long leash...
...In fact, he appeared to read most of his 18-minute statement from a teleprompter—except for the section excoriating Arafat, which Bush seemed to know by heart...
...Once Israel pulls its troops back, Bush said in the Rose Garden, "responsible Palestinian leaders . . . must step forward and show the world that they are truly on the side of peace...
...This was a cost he wasn't willing to pay...
...In a recession, they must have a sweeping program, even if doing nothing is the best policy for reviving the economy...
...You're either with the civilized world or you're with the terrorists...
...He'll have to back Israel in sending Arafat into exile and praying for new Palestinian leaders willing to achieve statehood through a peace settlement with Israel rather than to seek a victory over Israel through terrorism...
...What were the costs...
...Then, Bush will be left with one course...
...Even when he's promised to stop waging terrorism against Israel, as he did in the 1993 Oslo accords, the terrorist attacks have continued, a fact Bush noted...
...the desire for allies when military action is taken against Iraq, probably later this year...
...Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak threatened to eliminate diplomatic relations with Israel entirely, a threat that especially alarmed Bush...
...In the Rose Garden, the president came closer to speaking candidly about Arafat and resolving his rhetorical problem...
...But the strategy isn't to side with Israel at all costs...
...In the Middle East, the right thing for Bush to do was keep Powell at home a bit longer, ignore the pressure, and let Israel proceed with its anti-terrorist mission...
...Still, Bush could have resisted the pressure to step in and given the Israelis more time, but certainly not the additional four to six weeks that Israeli military officials said it would take to finish the job of quashing Palestinian terrorism...
...Within five days of Israeli tanks' entering the West Bank in pursuit of terrorists, Bush decided the costs had gotten out of hand...
...The president's answer was lame and not what he really believes...
...Is Bush giving him one last chance to abandon terrorism as a tool in fighting Israel, or is this merely one more chance in the parade of opportunities given Arafat over the past three decades...
...He restated the Bush doctrine this way: "Everyone must choose...
...Actually he has a three-pronged strategy...
...And White House advisers fretted over how impotent and confused Bush looked in his reluctance to intervene forcefully...
...As for Arafat, Bush said he "has not consistently opposed or confronted terrorists...
...Bush thinks Arafat is a terrorist and has been for years, but that's not what he said...
...Even when bending, however, he was far more passionate in denouncing Arafat than in calling for Sharon to ease up...
...Bush was embarrassed earlier last week when asked by reporters if the Bush doctrine, which treats leaders who harbor or sponsor terrorists as terrorists themselves, applied to Arafat or whether there was a double standard...
...Number two is to keep some distance between the United States and Israel so as not to end up tied to everything Israeli prime minister Ariel sharon does...
...Bush also reiterated that he's "a committed friend of Israel...
...Prong one is to give the Israelis as much time as possible for their military drive to uproot the Palestinian terrorist infrastructure...
...That's quite a list...
...That was an understatement, but it got the point across that Arafat is now on probation...
...And if the costs get too great in the view of the White House, the president will have to change course and yank Israel back...
...And that leads to the real Arafat problem...
...Arafat, of course, has never seized the moment to do the right thing...
...He's not done so...
...The State Department clamored as usual for restraining the Israelis...
...Now Bush has two Arafat dilemmas, one rhetorical, one real...
...Reporters interpreted this as Bush's saying Arafat isn't a terrorist...
...And the third is to keep other important American interests in mind, including Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...His speech in the Rose Garden announcing a new course was delivered two days later...
...As Robert Satloff of the Washington Institute on Near East Policy points out, Bush no longer insists the "path to peace" runs through Arafat...
...For all of Bush's toughness since September 11, he's discovered a political truism about the presidency...
...It's simply this: Presidents are not allowed to be passive...
...Notice he didn't mention Arafat in this context...
...CIA director George Tenet warned about the ominous spread of anti-American and anti-Israel protests, particularly in Jordan, where the government of King Abdullah is weak...
...Yes, the president occasionally gets irritated at Sharon, but he loathes Arafat...
Vol. 7 • April 2002 • No. 30
