Simon Says- Surprise!
HAYES, STEPHEN F.
Simon Says— Surprise! Bill Simon pulls an upset in California’s gubernatorial primary. Can he do it again in the fall? When poll results a week before California’s gubernatorial primary showed...
...He was a successful investor and generous philanthropist...
...In so doing, he earned the right to challenge the man largely responsible for his victory—incumbent Democratic governor Gray Davis...
...As internal polls showed Simon pulling ahead, Riordan panicked and started flailing at Simon, in ways that no doubt have Gray Davis’s ad team excited about next fall...
...On January 20, Davis began running ads attacking Riordan...
...Riordan received a call from President Bush on May 1. Reports at the time indicated that Bush wished Riordan a happy birthday and encouraged him to consider running for governor...
...Simon’s political experience was scant...
...I just want to hear what he has to say,” explains Murray, who briefly introduced himself to the candidate...
...Simon says he heard such “rumors” but didn’t put much stock in them...
...By comparison, most other large states kept spending growth to single digits...
...A month before the March 5 primary, Riordan led Simon by more than 30 percentage points...
...Social issues to me are not the centerpiece of my agenda,” he says...
...What are you going to do if you lose...
...Top California Democrats have already dismissed Simon as “road kill,” and Davis wasted no time in labeling his opponent a fringe candidate, a far right-winger out of step with average Californians...
...Parsky today is George W. Bush’s top adviser in California...
...As much as Davis tries to shift blame from himself, voters here seem to hold him responsible...
...In January 2001, Riordan hosted a dinner attended by many top California Republicans...
...As you know, the Republican party in California has been an endangered species now for several years...
...That fund-raising started as soon as he won the primary...
...He’s pro-life, pro-gun, pro a crazy deregulation scheme and pro-privatization...
...Old people can’t afford to retire here anymore— they go to Florida...
...Simon’s advisers love that comparison, of course, but even Simon acknowledges that he’s not a second Ronald Reagan...
...That year, Democratic incumbent Pat Brown desperately wanted to avoid facing a moderate, big-city mayor in the general election, San Francisco’s George Christopher...
...Now, he’s doing live interviews with CNN, and his press staffers are fielding calls from Meet the Press and This Week...
...The most effective of these suggested a Riordan flipflop on abortion...
...While poll numbers for other California politicians—the state legislature and senators Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein— have remained constant or even improved, Davis’s approval ratings have dropped...
...In fact, Riordan had a 2-to-1 lead over the combined total of Simon and the third candidate in the race, Secretary of State Bill Jones...
...wondered another, no doubt summoning a good bit of courage himself, with a half-dozen TV cameras in his face...
...The Simon upset is already being compared to another race for California governor, the one in 1966...
...And, of course, the precise effect of Roe v. Wade was to remove the issue from the purview of states and governors...
...Instead, Brown wanted to face a political unknown he figured was too conservative for the California electorate...
...Simon moved to Southern California in 1990 to set up a West Coast office of Simon and Sons, the investment firm he controlled with his father and brother, Peter...
...Davis spent $10 million dollars during the Republican primary, most of it on ads attacking Riordan, whom Davis advisers considered their toughest potential competitor...
...Those doubts gave way to a tremendous sense of relief when Riordan graciously conceded on Election Night and gave Simon his spirited backing at the “unity breakfast...
...WOODRUFF: Another thing Bill Simon said last night, he said you turned what was an $8 billion budget surplus in the state of California into an enormous record deficit...
...Stephen F. Hayes is a staff writer at THEWEEKLY STANDARD...
...But critics say Davis ignored signs of the coming recession, and at the same time grew government spending at an explosive rate—37 percent over his first two years...
...On Thursday—education day for the Simon campaign— the first stop was Camellia Basic Elementary, a magnet school in Sacramento...
...That alone is impressive, as Simon met hundreds of potential voters over the course of the 12-hour trip...
...And while Davis points out that he has presided over the creation of 900,000 new jobs, few analysts believe he’ll get points from voters for that...
...And several sources mentioned a proposed deal in which Simon would abandon his gubernatorial bid for a job as the chief deputy to Tom Ridge in the Office of Homeland Security...
...But last Tuesday Simon crushed Riordan, with 49 percent of the vote to Riordan’s 31 and Jones’s 17...
...He introduced Simon as a “potential gubernatorial candidate,” and urged others to consider supporting his friend...
...After several years of successful ventures, Simon Sr...
...I think he sees this as a chance to revive the party, and the president was extremely encouraging and very persuasive,” Riordan told the National Journal...
...At first blush, abortion is a curious topic to choose as the centerpiece of a gubernatorial campaign...
...He used his speech that evening to set the tone for the coming campaign against Simon...
...But California voters don’t seem to be making that distinction...
...And Davis, unlike President Bush, can’t blame deficits on a war on terrorism...
...attorney Rudolph Giuliani in New York...
...Later, when I ask Simon about his crossover appeal and his campaign’s plans to create a bloc of Simon Democrats, he mentions Murray by name...
...The governor, hoping to weaken Riordan significantly for the general election, used the criticism as an excuse to hit back hard...
...The White House says the Riordan campaign was inept...
...The economic slowdown is one of two factors leading to what may become Davis’s biggest problem: He turned an $8 billion budget surplus when he took office into a $17 billion budget deficit today...
...They attend the same church and share interests in politics and philanthropy...
...Davis reasonably suggests that he inherited some of the state’s massive energy problems...
...If he can’t, it certainly won’t be for lack of trying...
...The day before Simon swept to his historic victory, San Francisco Chronicle reporter Carla Marinucci gave this account of his campaign on Inside Politics: “Simon has had some problems in the last days of his campaign...
...Whalen says, by comparison, Pete Wilson oversaw the creation of 400,000 new jobs in his last full year...
...Parsky was not “on board” for a Simon candidacy initially and, even after the primary victory, is publicly doubting Simon’s chances...
...That dispute is still being litigated (Simon Sr...
...Deficit figures will be adjusted in May, and several experts believe those numbers will worsen, presenting Davis with an unenviable choice: Cut government programs and risk upsetting his liberal base, or raise taxes and risk upsetting everyone else...
...Unless the economy improves dramatically in the next two months, Davis’s budget woes will likely get worse...
...At the very same time Riordan was criss-crossing the state touting his pro-choice credentials, Davis unleashed an ad featuring Riordan’s thoughts on abortion from more than a decade earlier (“I think it’s murder...
...I had lots of people that said, ‘You seem like quite a nice young man—talk to me after the primary.’ Now, many of them are calling me, and we’re calling all of the others...
...Last Wednesday, March 6, when Richard Riordan finished a brief concession speech at a post-primary “unity breakfast,” the first man on his feet, applauding enthusiastically, was Bill Simon...
...It’s just hard to see how the quality of life has improved under Davis...
...There are conflicting accounts as to exactly how actively the White House sought to help Riordan...
...It was virtually the only time all week that his boyish, toothy grin disappeared from his face...
...Every second we spend not discussing Gray Davis’s record is a wasted second,” he admonishes...
...He doesn’t have a single woman in a visible role in the campaign...
...At least once, the White House appeared to give Riordan a heads-up on an upcoming policy initiative, providing the mayor an opportunity to look both prescient and connected...
...It’s like him taking credit for the turn of the century,” says Bill Whalen, a former speechwriter for Pete Wilson and a fellow at the Hoover Institution, who believes Davis is one of the most vulnerable incumbent governors in the nation in 2002...
...Still, while he isn’t as smooth as a more practiced public figure, he comes across as interested in the kids and their studies...
...Others say the White House was not keen on any of the three, and simply settled on Riordan because he was most likely to give Davis a good race...
...If you can’t get people to support you not only intellectually and emotionally, but also financially, then you’re not a good candidate...
...Supporting Jones was never an option...
...Riordan says $10 million in Gray Davis ads was decisive...
...He’s talking about the issues I care about—energy, schools, and taxes...
...Mike Murray, a leader in the local Democratic party, also came to see Simon in person...
...He peppered the strategist with six consecutive questions about abortion, and returned to the topic later in the interview...
...But Californians should get used to such non sequiturs, because Davis will return to abortion again and again, largely for three reasons...
...Winning the support of moderate Democrats won’t be easy, especially since Davis still has more than $25 million to spend on the race, after spending $10 million on the GOP primary...
...Simon, naturally, is talking about those issues that make Davis one of the most vulnerable incumbent governors up for reelection this year—energy woes, the struggling economy, and a historic California budget deficit...
...Simon’s answers: “Help Californians in other ways,” and, “I used to, but not anymore...
...And he said you tried to hide the red ink...
...Simon’s answer—he’s going to avoid them—reflects either the naivete one might expect from a political neophyte or the message discipline of a seasoned candidate...
...Murray hasn’t committed to Simon quite yet, but he says he’s not a Davis fan...
...Such attacks stung Simon, not because they came from the vanquished frontrunner, but because they came from a friend...
...That is a glaring omission in California, where the women’s vote is very, very important and Latinos, too...
...But Davis seems determined to avoid distractions like discussions of his record, and if the first few days of the campaign are any indication, Simon and Davis will spend the next eight months essentially talking past each other...
...He estimates that he will need $30-$40 million to remain competitive over the next eight months—a goal that means he will have to raise money or self-finance at a rate of $1 million per week...
...Simon says his ideas carried the day...
...That assessment, dismissed by many observers at the time as an exaggeration, turned out to be an understatement...
...He’s also adjusting to his newfound celebrity...
...And in the final analysis, they’re all right...
...mayor for years...
...Simon tapped his own network and Riordan’s and, pleased with the feedback he was getting, set up a threemonth exploratory committee and geared up for a campaign against Secretary of State Jones...
...To make that point, Davis kicked off his general election campaign by talking mainly about social issues—gun control, gay rights, and especially abortion...
...Two days after Simon’s primary win, a reporter for one of California’s top papers sat down for a one-on-one interview with Simon adviser Sal Russo...
...People are moving out of our state because of taxes...
...Simon began his ads a short time later, and Riordan’s support began to crumble...
...Before that, he had worked for three years under then-U.S...
...Do you get nervous before you have to give a speech...
...I hate to say it as a Democrat, but I’m getting sick of the taxes...
...Simon concedes he’s still learning the fine art of campaigning...
...At a press conference the morning after his victory, a reporter asks Simon whether he intends to answer or avoid questions about social issues...
...Yet...
...Moments later, Riordan stood between Simon and Bill Jones, the three posing like victorious boxers, their clasped hands held high...
...And that left Riordan...
...Bill Simon Jr...
...And they give him very low marks for his leadership on the issue, saying that he was late in recognizing the severity of the problem...
...Simon’s demeanor betrays the fact that there’s something just plain weird about walking into a classroom of first graders, listening to them read aloud for two minutes, congratulating their teacher, moving down the hall, and getting worked up over someone else’s kid’s science project...
...If you are an extreme conservative, you cannot win in California,” Parsky told the New York Times late last week...
...One, Davis has successfully exploited the abortion issue to topple two recent challengers—former California attorney general Dan Lungren in 1998, and Riordan in this year’s primary...
...Local experts say the total number of bills Davis has signed is easily in the thousands...
...Simon had “turned out to be a sanctimonious hypocrite,” Riordan said...
...By Davis’s own tally, he has signed just seven abortion-related bills in his first three years in office...
...This is especially true in gender-obsessed California...
...When photographers rushed to take pictures of the trio, Riordan graciously stepped aside, nudged Simon to the center, and brought full-circle one of the more bizarre primaries in recent memory...
...died two years ago), and several sources say hard feelings remain between Parsky and the younger Simon...
...Before he emerged as a serious candidate, he spoke mostly to small audiences with perhaps a few local reporters in tow...
...For Gray Davis, the March 5 primary was a formality...
...DAVIS: Bill Simon’s vision of the future is totally out of step and out of sync with California’s...
...Two tenets of conventional wisdom will thus collide in California this year: On the one hand, we’re told, conservatives can’t win in the state...
...Outside support is key...
...That was a “problem” only because Marinucci had just written an article for the Chronicle comparing the number of high-visibility women in the Riordan and Simon campaigns, something even the most concerned voter would be unlikely to do...
...Finally and most obvious, Davis wants to talk about anything other than the issues that have consumed most of his time for the last three years—energy shortages, the sagging economy, and more recently a ballooning budget deficit...
...But Camellia School fifth graders asked tougher questions...
...This pleasant demeanor and general friendliness will make it hard for Davis to cast him as a fire-breathing right-winger...
...I signed the toughest gun safety laws in America...
...In the days before the primary, Simon had publicly predicted that he and Riordan would “be friends again, just like we were before...
...For much of the primary, Riordan held commanding leads over both Simon and Jones...
...So he shrugged off the GOP base—at times even seeming to lecture conservatives on the finer points of being a good Republican—and started targeting Davis...
...Riordan had no plans to run himself, and enthusiastically encouraged the nascent Simon for Governor campaign...
...And I solved, as best any governor can, this crazy deregulation scheme I inherited...
...Several times in an interview last Thursday, Simon gently scolds me for asking about politics, process, and, yes, abortion...
...Brown got his wish, and Ronald Reagan went on to beat him in the general election...
...This is not California’s vision of the future...
...Later on Thursday, Simon was greeted warmly by students at a high school outside of San Francisco...
...After first backing Bush in the 2000 presidential primary, Jones made a highprofile switch to John McCain after McCain had shown himself to be a viable candidate...
...When Bill Simon first began giving serious consideration to the governor’s race in late 2000, he turned to Riordan for advice...
...The slow national economy hit high-tech California particularly hard...
...The day after he won, he gave 29 different interviews...
...That summer, though, Riordan had a change of heart—one he says was inspired by the White House...
...When poll results a week before California’s gubernatorial primary showed political neophyte Bill Simon with a six-point lead over two-term Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan, directors of California’s Field Poll suggested voters were witnessing “one of the most remarkable turnarounds in California election history...
...denies that, saying that the lawsuit “isn’t even relevant today,” adding, “Gerry and I have a fine relationship...
...But on the other, neither can a deeply unpopular incumbent in times of economic difficulty...
...He said his old friend was just the man to “get rid of Gray Davis...
...I am proudly pro-choice...
...Consider this exchange with Judy Woodruff on CNN’s Inside Politics the day after Simon won the GOP primary...
...I want to spotlight my ideology of smaller government, local government, individual empowerment, and opportunity...
...Some of this may just be bad timing...
...Though it wasn’t billed as open to the public, his visit drew several other members of the Burlingame community, including two middle-aged men with “Gray Davis for Governor” signs...
...Simon, who is personally wealthy (he won’t say how wealthy), says his campaign will be adequately financed...
...asked one...
...We have a lot of the same ideas, but I’m not nearly the great communicator he was,” says Simon...
...And when Giuliani came to California in February to stump with Simon, he finally caught up with Riordan...
...And using language that couldn’t have been better scripted by Davis strategist Garry South, Riordan added, “I didn’t realize how extreme [Simon] is...
...Riordan declared Simon “the hope to bring back glory to the Golden State...
...and Parsky had a bitter split, each publicly accusing the other of duplicity...
...I will wage a credible campaign,” he insists, indicating a willingness to spend some of his own money, but insisting that he will be successful in raising funds from others...
...And it serves him well on the trail, making up for the campaigners’ tricks he has yet to acquire...
...He helped establish PAX-TV, the family-friendly television cable network, and served for a spell on the board of the Heritage Foundation...
...In one recent Los Angeles Times poll, nearly 4 in 10 Democrats said they were not impressed with Davis’s leadership in his first term...
...Two, reporters are overwhelmingly pro-choice, and are always eager to report, write, and broadcast stories on abortion...
...If one can help defeat a famously prochoice Republican like Riordan by questioning his views on abortion, the thinking goes, surely a pro-life political newcomer will be even easier...
...One ad featured a strong endorsement of Simon from his old boss Giuliani, now one of the most popular public figures in America...
...But his advisers and top Republicans in California and Washington weren’t quite as sanguine...
...Simon, the son of Nixon-era Treasury secretary William E. Simon, had been friends with the L.A...
...And the first policy issue he raised in that speech was abortion...
...True, answering a budget question by calling your opponent pro-life will seem silly to voters who pay attention to such things...
...He mentioned it at every stop on his statewide victory lap the following day...
...Why ask about water reclamation, energy contracts, or budget deficits, when, taking your cues from the governor, you can talk about a woman’s “right to choose...
...That task began in earnest on Wednesday, even as Republicans try to understand exactly what happened in the primary...
...Simon spent much of the bus trip from the airport to the school fielding questions from reporters on such topics as campaign funding and his friendship with Riordan...
...The White House also had issues with Simon...
...There are awkward moments at each of the schools...
...Almost nothing happens in California with the White House or cabinet members unless Parsky is on board,” says one top Republican in the state...
...But he wasn’t there to protest...
...When Simon’s dad was in the Nixon and Ford administrations, a young man named Gerry Parsky worked under him, later going into business with the elder Simon...
...If Bill Simon can keep voters’ attention on Davis’s record, he will present Davis with a strong challenge in November...
Vol. 7 • March 2002 • No. 26
