Credible Threats
MILLER, JAMES D.
Credible Threats The strategic brilliance of Bush's"axis of evil." BY JAMES D. MILLER CAN THREATS ALONE tame the axis of evil? In his State of the Union speech, President Bush promised to take...
...The United States could inflict horrific damage on these countries and, more important, on their dictators...
...If we can achieve victory without further combat, all the better...
...Consequently, Democrats could plausibly advance U.S...
...our goal, however, should be victory plain and simple...
...3. The threat is not believed and the United States goes to war...
...If this deadline passed with no action, Bush would look foolish...
...our enemies will comply only if non-compliance may have a heavy cost...
...The retraction of his threat to North Korea was a blunder...
...Anything that would make it more costly for Bush to take preemptive action makes his threat less believable...
...Jimmy Carter and the French foreign minister have said that the "axis of evil" phrase is simplistic and dangerous...
...Press accounts indicate that the United States might be preparing to attack Iraq...
...It's true that the president indicated during his recent trip to Asia that the United States has no intention of attacking North Korea...
...In his State of the Union speech, President Bush promised to take preemptive action against Iran, Iraq, and North Korea if they don't abandon their efforts to foment terrorism and perfect weapons of mass destruction...
...Furthermore, by publicly expressing doubts about preemptive actions, they signal to Iraq that Bush will face considerable opposition if he ever attempts to carry out his threat...
...It made it less likely that his other threats would be believed...
...ply, and memorably stated his objective...
...Absent an immediate deadline, they will consider yielding only if they face some prospect of sudden assault...
...When Bush promised that he would take action against the axis of evil, he clearly, simJames D. Miller is an assistant professor of economics at Smith College...
...Consequently, Bush's desire to avoid humiliation would make his threat more credible...
...Remember, Saddam is wondering if Bush really would attack...
...of course, to the degree Bush changed his mind about North Korea, it probably would have been better not to include it in the first place...
...If we can convince Saddam that we are willing to topple him, then he might back down, or others might topple him for us...
...But is Bush's threat credible...
...He signaled that the United States wouldn't care if we incurred Europe's disapproval...
...The more credible a threat, the less likely it will have to be executed...
...Aside from the handling of North Korea, though, the administration has skillfully threatened the rest of the axis of evil, especially Iraq...
...would help Republicans...
...The term "axis of evil" itself is a brilliant strategic utterance that increases the credibility of Bush's threat...
...Bush's threat thus gains credibility if it's thought that he is politically better off taking preemptive military action if Iraq doesn't yield to his demands...
...By mocking the French, Powell made Bush's threat more credible because he signaled that the United States wouldn't care if we incurred Europe's disapproval...
...Saddam Hussein, for example, could be tempted to believe that since Bush backed down with North Korea, he might never attack Iraq...
...2. The threat is not believed but the United States backs down...
...If our allies don't support a preemptive strike, Bush must clearly indicate that he doesn't value our allies' opinions...
...Consequently, if Bush is unwilling to impose a deadline, he must make Iraq fear a surprise attack...
...Had Bush included China it would have signaled that the axis of evil consisted of countries he morally disapproved of, rather than regimes he intends on challenging...
...interests by saying that they fear a fresh war Colin Powell acted deftly when he suggested the French foreign minister was getting the vapors...
...If they really believed that Bush would carry out his threat, then all three countries would probably yield...
...Ideally, Iraq should believe that Bush is looking for any excuse to fight...
...By labeling the phrase simplistic, these critics reveal their ignorance of its credibility-enhancing properties...
...When the world's dominant power issues a military threat there are but three possible outcomes: 1. The threat is believed and the adversary acquiesces...
...And even if Bush is beyond all crass political concerns, Iraq probably believes that he is driven by self-interest...
...Not including China in the axis of evil was tactically sound...
...Saddam surely knows that if we tried to remove him from power then we would prevail...
...Colin Powell therefore acted deftly when he suggested that the French foreign minister was getting the vapors...
...He thus insured that he will pay a political price if he does nothing against the tyrannical triad...
...Such publicly expressed sentiments show that these men themselves are unsophisticated and reckless...
...To further ratchet up the pressure, Bush could impose a deadline for Iraq to comply with his demands...
...These three countries are ruled by selfish men...
...China's atomic weapons probably put her beyond our military's reach...
Vol. 7 • March 2002 • No. 25
