What to Do Next

DONNELLY, TOM

What to Do Next How to consolidate the victory in Afghanistan— and beyond. BY TOM DONNELLY VICTORY IN AFGHANISTAN is in sight. The few remaining pockets of resistance have been isolated and the...

...But as in Afghanistan, the Iraq campaign must be premised upon the certainty of an American-led military victory and a commitment to remain engaged...
...Finally, the fight in Afghanistan shows us the need to rebuild, restore, and reform our armed forces to meet the needs of a chaotic world in chronic need of American military help...
...In a remarkable column in the November 15 Wall Street Journal, Lord David Owen, former British foreign secretary and the frustrated first peace negotiator in the Balkan wars, wrote: "Now is the time to choose the next sequence of steps to counter international terrorists, destroy their safe havens, and suppress all state support...
...Another is refitting those forces for further advances...
...Peacekeeping" and "nation-building" are tasks we do not want, but we avoid them at great risk to ourselves...
...We know how to fight this battle—having been to the outskirts of Baghdad in 1991—but today's situation is more urgent...
...And a "revolution in military affairs" is upon us: The American force needs not only new weapons but new thinking...
...Don't give it a chance to reform a defense...
...The other services need proportionate boosts in budgets, weapons procurement, and manpower...
...We must be swift, violent, and decisive...
...Yet even as we move to terminate the fighting in Afghanistan and create an enduring peace in the area, we must prepare for the next campaign...
...Put the pressure on and let this organization crumble right now...
...The second task is to move as quickly as possible to stabilize the situation and shape a post-Taliban Afghanistan...
...Phase Two" is a euphemism for Iraq...
...So are special operations troops, but a larger force should be deployed as rapidly as possible...
...Remaining Taliban forces must be quickly defeated and disarmed...
...For more than a decade, we have allowed the force that won the Cold War to atrophy while sending it into combat ever more frequently...
...leadership to keep a close eye on them...
...don't let the command and control be reestablished...
...The post-Cold War decade was marked by a series of military moments, from Iraq in 1991 through Kosovo in 1999, where small amounts of American military force held the potential to make a huge difference...
...don't let it be resup-plied and re-equipped...
...He argued that "the next step must involve Iraq" and "to pretend that Iraq can be put to one side this winter while we deal with the Taliban and the al Qaeda network in Afghanistan is foolhardy...
...This is what President Bush referred to as "Phase Two" of the war...
...These are the missions that special forces do best...
...Last week the Northern Alliance could not keep up with the Tom Donnelly is deputy executive director of the Project for the New American Century...
...There have been victories, to be sure, but none has been as full as it might have been or needed to be...
...We cannot just stop with Afghanistan...
...Enemies of Saddam Hussein are plentiful inside Iraq...
...In Afghanistan, it is useful and desirable to recruit an ad hoc coalition of the willing that includes troops from Turkey and other majority-Muslim states, but it will be equally important to ensure that some nations do not take a front-line role...
...The trick on this," as retired general Wesley Clark, NATO commander in the Kosovo war said, "is to go quickly...
...Missile defense, too, is inadequately funded...
...For the United States, simply keeping up with the pace of events, let alone getting in front and leading them, will require fast and powerful ground forces able to move over longer distances and secure fleeting objectives...
...Moreover, it is necessary now to free up special forces for any unfinished business in tracking down bin Laden, Mullah Omar, and other leaders of the Taliban and al Qaeda...
...Further, the Taliban's decision to defend a thin line throughout Afghanistan ensured that any breakthrough would quickly become a rout...
...He will attack Israel and his Arab neighbors and enlist every terrorist he can find...
...As the campaign in Afghanistan has progressed, a consensus has emerged that it is high time to remove Saddam Hussein from power...
...Despite Rumsfeld's declaration, recent history in the Balkans reveals that the success of peacekeeping operations depends on American leadership and almost always on the presence—the long-term and large-scale presence—of U.S...
...While there will now be opportunity for economic, social, and judicial development, none of those can succeed without a foundation in the military power of a U.S.-led constabulary force...
...He will use whatever weapons of mass destruction he has...
...More than any attacks by the Northern Alliance, the precipitous collapse of the Taliban's army was caused principally by the increasing application of American military power and especially the shift from cautious strategic bombing to more intense and tactical strikes...
...troops...
...According to the polls, a large majority of Americans understand this, as do, increasingly, our friends abroad...
...and allied heliborne infantry, backed up by massive on-call air power (including attack helicopters) is ideally suited to this mission...
...And a U.N...
...Even if, as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld declared, a long-term peacekeeping presence is "highly unlikely," a rapid deployment now would do much to set the terms of the peace...
...Pacifying Kabul and preventing looting and atrocities by their undisciplined troops is just one of many such tasks...
...More important, the true test of American resolve in Afghanistan will be our staying power...
...Once Saddam realizes we are coming, he will observe few restraints...
...And it is up to the U.S...
...Finish it now...
...The immediate task is to convert the many local successes of the Northern Alliance and the cracking of the Taliban coalition within Afghanistan into a larger victory...
...indeed, it was our failure to stay engaged in the region after the Cold War that permitted the rise of the Taliban and turned Afghanistan into a safe harbor for terrorists...
...even after a warning from the Bush administration not to do so, gives the Alliance a valuable chip in any negotiations over the future of Afghanistan...
...Taliban retreat, and now they have to consolidate their gains...
...if they slip out of our grasp at the final moment, victory in Afghanistan will be incomplete, and the larger war on terrorism will be more difficult and complex...
...To simply deal with its current missions—to complete the mission in Afghanistan and retain the capacity to win another large-scale war—the Army needs at least 50,000 more soldiers and perhaps $15 billion per year...
...it is essential that we not let up, but continue exploiting the opportunities of an especially fluid battlefield...
...To be sure, finishing it now is a challenge...
...indeed, the Northern Alliance's seizure of Kabul, It is essential that we not let up, but continue exploiting the opportunities of an especially fluid battlefield...
...Follow-up attacks by the Alliance—a confederation of mostly Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara tribes-men—in the largely Pashtun area of southern Afghanistan would complicate matters politically...
...The few remaining pockets of resistance have been isolated and the Taliban leadership can no longer control events...
...As in Afghanistan, a campaign in Iraq will involve local opposition forces, the Kurds in the north and the Shi'a tribes in the south...
...This has been the traditional role of great powers in Afghanistan and remains the role of today's "sole superpower...
...Another such moment stands before us in Afghanistan...
...Every arm of American military strength needs more muscle...
...the inclusion of Russian troops, for example, would be a mistake...
...mandate would be welcome, but only as a vehicle for assuring widespread agreement on American strategic goals...
...One-eyed Mullah Omar, Osama bin Laden, and their lieutenants are on the run, if they haven't already been captured or killed...
...Capturing and killing these charismatic enemies is a matter of some urgency...
...In military terms, how do we seize the moment...
...Other Afghan warlords will try to follow their example...

Vol. 7 • November 2001 • No. 11


 
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