Fear Not the Taliban
KAGAN, FREDERICK W.
Fear Not the Taliban They're the ones who should fear us. BY FREDERICK W. KAGAN AMERICAN STRATEGY in the war against Afghanistan has been seriously hampered by the culture of fear that reigns in...
...Instead, we must state specifically and categorically what is to be done: • Replace the Taliban with a stable Afghan regime committed to functioning as a respectable member of the international system and preventing the use of its territory and resources for the support of terrorism...
...Attempting to subcontract the ground war to the Northern Alliance or any other opposition group will simply give that group an overwhelming voice in determining the postwar government...
...Will the Taliban take to the hills and wage guerrilla attacks on us...
...We are afraid of the Afghan winter...
...That is why the comments of General Tommy Franks (made before the recent advance of the Northern Alliance) were so puzzling...
...An excessive fear of nation-building is pernicious and serious...
...We do not need to be afraid of confronting the Taliban in a close fight...
...It will not be militarily difficult to do that...
...Nor is there any prospect of successful nation-building unless it is our ground forces that seize and hold the critical areas in the country...
...It is a time for leadership that lives up to the quality of the American people, who have shown themselves ready for sacrifice...
...it is time to break out of this cycle of fear—a cycle that has restricted American strategy and policy-making ever since the disaster of Mogadishu in 1993...
...The coalition is more likely to evaporate from delay and procrastination than from too-hasty or too-powerful action...
...But it is one thing for us to be simply bombing during Ramadan, and another thing again for us to be doing something positive for the Afghan people on the ground, even if we have to continue some bombing...
...By doing so, those regimes have made themselves targets for terrorists...
...War in Afghanistan is about rapid tactical and operational movement, and our technology, especially our helicopters, gives us an enormous edge in that realm...
...Even more, it is time to finish thinking and start doing—and soon...
...The Taliban do not have a strong hold on the country, and the ranks of their army, which is neither well trained nor well disciplined, have been severely thinned in recent weeks...
...Above all, we must abandon fear and focus on our goals...
...It is to be hoped not...
...The Soviets had few problems in stand-up shoot-outs with large numbers of mujahedeen, and we would have fewer...
...We are afraid of inserting ground forces because we are afraid of taking casualties...
...It is time, as great generals always say, to stop thinking about what the enemy can do to us and start thinking about what we can do to the enemy...
...We are afraid of "nation-building...
...Otherwise, civil wars will continue, inviting extremism and schooling people in violence...
...This is not a time for half-measures or turning inward...
...Franks, head of U.S...
...Replace Saddam Hussein's criminal regime before he finds a way to use the chemical and biological weapons we know he is developing for a devastating attack on the United States...
...That's not our approach...
...The economy is important, but winning the war is nonnego-tiable...
...Eliminate to the best of our ability known terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Islamic Jihad...
...To achieve these aims will require significant rearmament, necessitating major increases in defense funding at a time when a nervous administration would prefer to focus on stimulating the economy...
...Above all, it is not a time for fear...
...That could prove disastrous, both inside Afghanistan and outside...
...The only rational way forward is for us to seize control of the situation and turn it in a direction that suits us...
...And they have incurred the risk of alienating their own people, who might be uncomfortable about supporting Western attacks on a Muslim state...
...Let us put aside the question of whether or not we would be able to Frederick W. Kagan is a military historian and the co-author ofWhile America Sleeps...
...We are afraid of Muslim reaction to military operations during Ramadan...
...military operations were not directed at occupying key spots in Afghanistan: "We are not occupying strategic terrain like Mazar-e-Sharif or like Kandahar...
...How long can Pakistan, to name one critical member of the coalition, sustain a bombing campaign that seems not to be working...
...If our aim is to eliminate the threat of terrorism based in Afghanistan, then establishing a reasonably stable government there is essential...
...If we are correct that they do not enjoy widespread support, then such attacks will be controllable...
...There will be nothing to prevent terrorists from continuing to use the country as a base...
...America's heli-borne forces are the best in the world, and will have a great deal of success in isolating and destroying guerrilla bands...
...Our well-trained and physically fit volunteer army will not make the mistakes that the Soviets did tactically, and they will face a much weaker foe...
...One reason it may not be doing so is our fear of nation-building...
...The winter is a more serious issue...
...These facts are usually used to justify inaction, but there is a flip side to the equation...
...Given that operations may largely cease over the winter, is it better for them to cease with the Taliban in control of the government and major population centers, or with us in control...
...BY FREDERICK W. KAGAN AMERICAN STRATEGY in the war against Afghanistan has been seriously hampered by the culture of fear that reigns in Washington...
...Above all, we are afraid of failure...
...That makes the selection of an intelligent strategy much more clear-cut...
...Will we start bombing the Northern Alliance...
...But surely military strategy—which would dictate seizing key strategic points—needs to trump exit strategy...
...Many Muslim states, after all, have joined one of several loose coalitions supporting portions of our anti-terrorism campaign...
...We are afraid that the coalition might collapse...
...It is not enough to eliminate al Qaeda or overthrow the Taliban, our immediate objectives...
...We no longer can ask why we should fight in a far-off land of which we know nothing—the connection between Kabul and New York is painfully clear...
...It may be necessary to follow them into the hills—but we are equipped for that...
...Perhaps...
...Because, as Franks explained, avoiding cities means we'll have "the easiest exit strategy we've had in years...
...It seems obvious that it would be better for the spring campaigning season to start with us in control...
...Neither is it enough simply to say that we aim to end terrorism...
...Beyond that, however, we should not ignore the advantages that our technology gives us...
...Central Command and the man running military operations in the region, insisted that U.S...
...How will we then ensure that a reasonable coalition government with a chance for stability comes to power...
...At the end of the day, however, acting during Ramadan poses less danger than not acting—the danger that the Taliban will consolidate their hold during the winter and start to look as though they might survive...
...The truth is that, although the Afghans are tough, we are tough, too...
...How long before other Muslim states start to turn away in fear that, as in 1991, we will fail to finish off the foe they have joined us in defying...
...We can also work to reestablish a decent infrastructure in Afghanistan, both physical and political, and lay the groundwork for stabilizing the situation there...
...There remain our fears about Ramadan and the stability of the coalition...
...If it turns out that this process is interrupted by the winter, so be it—at least let us start next spring with the situation under our control...
...Whatever happens to the coalition today, we can expect to avoid that situation...
...As an aside: If we are wrong and they do enjoy widespread support, then our airpower policy is absolutely hopeless...
...And it is a time for decisive action...
...Or its enemies...
...Why not...
...conduct operations in the winter, however—something that Soviet experience actually suggests is more possible than many think—and ask a different question...
...We need at once to insert significant ground forces—at least two divisions (some 50,000 troops) and perhaps more—in order to seize and hold key cities...
...After all, the Soviets were fighting not simply the mujahedeen, they were fighting the world, for the United States, Iran, Pakistan, and China all supported and supplied the muja-hedeen...
...Once established in country, we can ourselves undertake, directly and on the ground, to root out remaining terrorist cells and Taliban strongholds...
...There is no good endgame for this conflict that does not involve nation-building...
...There is every prospect, therefore, of military success if we can overcome our fears about fighting the Afghans and facing the winter...
...We can do a lot more than we are doing now...
Vol. 7 • November 2001 • No. 10
