The Social Security Election
BARNES, FRED
The Social Security Election Was last week's GOP victory in Virginia good news or bad news for Bush? BY FRED BARNES REPUBLICAN Randy Forbes won a Democratic House seat in .Virginia in a special...
...But 20 of the GOP's Senate seats and all 222 of its House seats are at stake in the 2002 election...
...Forbes had a relatively weak opponent, a black state senator who had difficulty discussing national issues...
...Even before the Virginia race, Democratic strategists said preserving Social Security in its current form would be the centerpiece of their campaigns next year...
...And 97 percent of the black vote went for Lucas (Forbes won 87 percent of the white vote...
...The district in southeast Virginia was "tailor made" for attacks on Social Security, Rove says...
...We won round one," he says, "but there are many rounds to go...
...When spots defending Lucas's record on taxes and crime replaced Social Security ads, Forbes regained the ground he'd lost among seniors, at least white seniors...
...Both he and Bush believe the old adage about Social Security—it's the "third rail of American politics, touch it and you die"—is obsolete...
...Of course this worry could cut in Bush's favor, prompting support for his plan as the solution to the potential insolvency of the Social Security system...
...His biggest problem in the special election was the black vote...
...can candidates, Davis worried it may cause the GOP to lose the House next year...
...In one predominantly black precinct, Forbes lost 1,446 to 8. Next month, however, the Virginia legislature will reapportion the state's 11 congressional districts...
...Bush outlined his idea for using Social Security funds for "personal retirement accounts" during the campaign last year...
...He thinks Forbes dodged a bullet in the special election, and other Republicans might not be so lucky in 2002...
...This will give Forbes a safe seat—safe enough even to hold forth about bringing change to Social Security...
...Nonetheless, Rove insists the Bush plan remains popular, consistently getting majority support in national polls...
...Davis is skeptical...
...In any event, if Republicans on Capitol Hill balk, it will be hard for Bush to pursue Social Security reform in 2002...
...They've disagreed for months about the Social Security issue, Rove insisting that Bush's initiative won't hurt RepubliFred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...As president, he's appointed a commission to flesh out the plan...
...The important thing, in Rove's view, is that Forbes was zinged in three different Democratic TV ads for backing Bush's plan, but won anyway...
...They suggested in their TV ads that Forbes favors full privatization with all Social Security funds invested in the stock market...
...And the campaign was short, giving Forbes less time to answer charges that he'd put Social Security benefits at risk...
...But their turnout was so large they made up nearly 40 percent of the electorate...
...In the end, Forbes's victory was not just proof the Social Security offensive "didn't work...
...Instead, Democrats came away from Forbes's 52-48 victory over Louise Lucas encouraged to attack Republicans vigorously in 2002 if they embrace President Bush's partial privatization idea for Social Security or anything like it...
...In Washington, the GOP debate is between Karl Rove, Bush's chief political adviser, and Tom Davis, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee...
...Rove also believes the outcome shows it's politically safe for Bush to propose legislation reforming Social Security later this year...
...Forbes probably won't have to worry one way or the other...
...Most support Bush's bold and overdue reform plan...
...The electorate is disproportionately old, and most of the elderly are the sort of middle- and low-income folks likely to be leery of tinkering with the Social Security system...
...Thirty-seven percent of the district's voters are black...
...These ads forced Forbes to put a response spot on television...
...BY FRED BARNES REPUBLICAN Randy Forbes won a Democratic House seat in .Virginia in a special election on June 19, even though he failed to gain a mandate on the issue that mattered most nationally in the race, Social Security reform...
...President Clinton won it twice, Bush squeaked by last year...
...He did not mention partial privatization or Bush in his ad...
...This timetable makes sense for Bush, but Davis and other congressional Republicans aren't sure it works for them...
...A centrist Democrat, Norm Sisisky, held the seat for 18 years until his death in March, but it's essentially a swing district...
...After a chat following Forbes's victory, they disagree as much as ever...
...Younger voters, especially, fear the system is so shaky that it won't finance their retirement...
...A sizable chunk of the black Democratic vote is certain to be shifted to another district, probably to Democrat Bobby Scott's...
...They were heartened by a CBS/New Yo-rk Times poll last week that found "the public's anxiety about the future of Social Security" at its highest point in 20 years...
...The longer you talk about Social Security," says Rove, "the better off you are...
...Davis's conclusion: A better Democratic candidate could have made more headway on Social Security...
...It's notable that Forbes rarely mentioned his support for partial privatization during the campaign, while Democrats dwelled on the subject...
...The commission's report is expected late this summer...
...As things now stand, Bush would seek congressional approval of partial privatization in 2002...
...Its message was that Forbes would never cut anyone's Social Security benefits...
...Yet when Democratic ads on Social Security aired, Forbes dropped 10 percentage points among seniors and 11 among "near seniors" over 55 years old...
...Mark Nevins of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said Lucas came from a dozen points down to a few points behind by emphasizing Social Security...
...And Republicans were left arguing over whether the Democratic strategy might work...
Vol. 6 • July 2001 • No. 40
