Games Countries Play
MILLER, JAMES D.
Games Countries Play Clarity trumps ambiguity. BY JAMES D. MILLER IN OUR EPIC GAME WITH CHINA, the United States has just changed strategies. Our commitment to Taiwan's defense used to be based...
...It would be extraordinarily stupid of the United States to announce a weak level of commitment to Taiwan in round one, but then come through with a strong response in round three, since this round-one behavior would encourage China to subjugate Taiwan...
...China knows that we have a massive incentive to try to deter it from attacking Taiwan...
...He should know that if I were really macho, I would benefit by broadcasting it...
...If I am macho and get mugged, then I will fight back, while if I'm wimpy and get mugged, I will submit...
...In this and many other games, it is therefore impossible to signal ambiguity, for ambiguity signals weakness...
...Drivers rely on very clear rules at traffic lights...
...China's leaders should even realize that it would be in our interest to lie and exaggerate our strategic commitment to Taiwan...
...China probably judges our commitment to the defense of Taiwan the way a beautiful woman judges a man after a date...
...The games we play with China are like the traffic games cars play...
...Thus, to convince China that we are even moderately serious about protecting Taiwan, we must make a definitive, not an ambiguous, public commitment...
...They should therefore take any level of commitment we announce as the upper limit to our willingness to defend Taiwan...
...It would be disastrous if these rules were made ambiguous...
...Consider a simplified three-round version of this game: ROUND ONE: The United States announces what it will do if China attacks Taiwan...
...Thus, if I behave ambiguously, a rational mugger should conclude that I'm a wimp...
...Recently, however, President Bush announced that the United States will do whatever it takes to defend Taiwan...
...ROUND TWO: China either attacks Taiwan or does nothing...
...Consider an analogous game...
...planning on grounding her for life if she does...
...If I respond meekly, he will know I am safe to rob...
...It would make war likely...
...On a first date, therefore, for a man to convince a beautiful woman that he has at least average virtues, he must behave like a saint...
...Of course, an unambiguous American promise to defend Taiwan might hurt the feelings of China's Communist elite...
...If the United States actually is prepared to defend Taiwan in round three, then the best way to avoid war is to tell this to the Chinese in round one...
...Those who wish to see Taiwan free, however, should not imagine that a policy of strategic ambiguity is a cheap way for America to deter China...
...Couldn't we deter China by merely hinting that we would probably come to Taiwan's aid if its de facto sovereignty were threatened...
...Men pretend to be far nicer than they really are...
...Our commitment to Taiwan's defense used to be based on strategic ambiguity...
...Unfortunately for men, women take this into account and assume, for example, that men are not as kind as they initially appear...
...Men desperately try to impress beautiful women on first dates...
...ROUND THREE: If China attacks, the United States either defends Taiwan or does nothing...
...Before attacking me, a smart mugger will test whether I am macho or wimpy...
...Pretend a mugger knows that I am either macho or wimpy...
...The United States should deduce that China is continually evaluating our actions looking for signs of strength or wimpiness...
...Unless you welcome conflict with your daughter, you should unambiguously state the punishments she would receive for rule violations...
...He might harass me to see how I act...
...If we wouldn't mind Taiwan's falling under Chinese control, then there is nothing wrong with an American policy of strategic ambiguity...
...To deter the mugger, I should obviously act macho...
...An analysis of the game we play with China shows the wisdom of clear commitment and the folly of combining ambiguity with deterrence...
...Even two drivers who desperately wanted to avoid a collision would still crash if both thought they had the right of way...
...It would be silly of me to act less macho than I really am...
...This strategy would be the equivalent of telling your child that there is a fair chance you won't punish her if she breaks curfew while secretly James D. Miller is an assistant professor of economics at Smith College...
...What makes things interesting is that the mugger should realize this...
...Similarly, mixed signals from Washington about Taiwan could lead to an accidental war, with the Chinese believing that if they invaded, we would concede the right of way...
Vol. 6 • May 2001 • No. 34
