Surprise, Surprise, He Meant It
BARNES, FRED
Surprise, Surprise, He Meant It Unchanged since its 1999 conception, the Bush tax cut makes its debut. BY FRED BARNES GEORGE W. BUSH drafted his $1.6 trillion tax cut, with help from Larry Lindsey...
...This argument, says Zogby, has helped build support, changing the broad public attitude about the tax cut from "Why...
...Pollster John Zogby points out its backing has risen only from "a high plurality to a low majority...
...According to Lind-sey, Bush "believes it's the people's money...
...Bush said he, with his $400,000 a year presidential salary, represents the top bracket...
...That's how the presidential effect works...
...including a 17 percent reduction in the top rate on individual income...
...Many Americans "are beginning to actually feel what it means to be in an economic downturn," Bush said in transmitting his tax bill to Congress last week...
...If those numbers hold, the Bush tax cut or something similar is bound to pass Congress...
...Last September, a Gallup poll found the public preferred Gore's tax cut— whatever it was—to Bush's by 45 percent to 37 percent...
...Second, he does have a Reagan-like determination to stick with an unpopular idea for months until it begins to generate public approval...
...He never considered giving it up or even altering it," says Lindsey...
...Now, tax families are soldiers in a presidential drive to reduce taxes and spur the economy...
...This trend in Bush's direction doesn't mean we have another Ronald Reagan in the White House...
...Same families, same George W. Bush, but a higher purpose and a glow of significance...
...BY FRED BARNES GEORGE W. BUSH drafted his $1.6 trillion tax cut, with help from Larry Lindsey and a band of conservative economists, in the summer of 1999 and unveiled it later that year...
...The Fox poll after 20 days of the Bush presidency came up with roughly the same finding: The tax cut was favored by 54 percent to 29 percent...
...The first episode came after McCain humiliated Bush in the New Hampshire primary...
...Another adjustment in the tax message has also helped—tax families...
...Initially he paid little attention to its potential economic effects, except to call it an "insurance policy against an economic downturn...
...The popularity of the tax cut confirms that, as a pure political matter, Bush was wise to follow his ideological instincts...
...Bush never flinched...
...Okay, the Bush tax cut isn't wildly popular...
...Now, he stresses the economic impact...
...The first is that the conservative side of his compassionate conservatism is more appealing than the media or even some of his aides let on...
...We must act without delay...
...Bush's persistence in sticking with his tax cut is, well, surprising, though Bush aides insist no one should have been shocked that the proposal he sent to Congress on February 8 was the same exact one he announced 14 months ago...
...And from the 1999 discussions, Bush came up with a principle of taxation that he now routinely mentions in speeches: No one should pay more than one-third of their income in federal taxes...
...Then Gore created a new pressure point by relentlessly assailing Bush for giving most of his tax cut to the "top one percent...
...All this might have seemed hokey if Bush had still been a candidate...
...Hughes suggested the idea to Karl Rove, Bush's chief strategist, who liked it...
...And third, he has benefited from a presidential effect...
...Actually, it was a bit hokey even in the White House...
...So first in an appearance in Georgia and then everywhere he campaigned, Bush put families on stage with him...
...What did change, however, was the way Bush promotes the tax cut...
...That's pretty basic...
...During 2000, the proposal was zinged in the Republican presidential primaries by senator John McCain, then trashed in the general election by Al Gore...
...When Gore was pounding Bush on taxes last summer, Hughes came up with an answer...
...But there was a difference...
...to "Why not...
...Bush never wavered, stubbornly sticking with every element of his plan, Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...To Bush, a federal tax bite at its highest point in a half-century is simply unfair...
...But when Bush vanquished McCain in South Carolina and later on Super Tuesday, the pressure subsided...
...Thus, his cut lowers the top rate from 39.6 percent to 33 percent...
...McCain claimed Bush would devote too much of the surplus to tax cuts and not enough to debt relief...
...Bush liked the ploy so much he recruited four new families to join him in the Diplomatic Room of the White House when he formally announced his tax proposal on February 5. Each represented a tax bracket...
...His tenacity has been rewarded: The Bush tax cut is popular...
...The one-third principle puts Bush close to what the public thinks about taxation—closer than Democrats, anyway...
...And we just can't drive on and hope for the best...
...Two days later, Bush held a reunion of 21 tax families from the campaign as part of his week-long drive to promote his tax cut...
...Twice, however, he was under strong pressure to do so...
...Before, meeting with tax families was a gimmick to win an election...
...Their notion of "targeted tax cuts" has fallen into disfavor...
...Bush is viewed far more favorably by the public as president (62 percent approval in the Fox Dynamics Poll) than he was as a candidate, and his agenda, including the tax cut, has picked up support as well...
...A warning light is flashing on the dashboard of our economy...
...A poll for congressional Democratic leaders in January discovered the public views these cuts as ones they won't get...
...Now we see the result...
...And for Bush, it's working quite well indeed...
...Bush would appear with low- and middle-income families, explain how much of a cut they'd get, and rebut Gore's charge that his plan was chiefly "a tax cut for the rich...
...But it does suggest three things about Bush as a national leader...
...From the beginning, his complaint was that "the federal government is overcharging people," Karen Hughes, Bush's White House counselor, says...
...Zogby gave Bush a slight edge on taxes then, but by mid-January, approval of the Bush proposal had jumped to 53 percent, with 34 percent opposed...
Vol. 6 • February 2001 • No. 22
