Democracy Makes All the Difference
Bolton, John R.
Democracy Makes All the Difference China mavens are in denial about the meaning of the Taiwan election. BY JOHN BOLTON Taipei NO SOONER HAD opposition candidate Chen Shui-bian triumphed in...
...George W. Bush has declared the People's Republic a "strategic competitor" rather than, in President Clinton's phrase, a "strategic partner...
...From Beijing's point of view, a completely free political system confined to Taiwan is bad enough...
...House of Representatives and pending before the Senate, will probably receive prompt consideration...
...They studiously avoided mentioning that those inconvenient voters in Taiwan had ignored State Department instructions and insisted on making their own decisions...
...During the Bush administration, he served as the assistant secretary of state for international organization affairs...
...And, the scaremongers notwithstanding, the result should be not an increase in tensions across the Taiwan Strait, but an increase in the illegitimacy of Beijing's rulers...
...The more sanguine of the pro-Beijing crowd, meanwhile, argued that neither Chen nor his party really Losing power: the Nationalist party poster comes down after Chen's victory believed in independence any more...
...the prospect of the virus spreading across the mainland must be far worse...
...While not flawless, the Taiwanese election went smoothly...
...The moment belongs to Chen and the DPP, but president Lee Teng-hui played a pivotal role in bringing about Taiwan's second democratic presidential election...
...Many in Congress are now suggesting that the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act be voted on before permanent normal trade relations, thus putting the PRC on notice that normal trade status will not give Beijing a free hand in the region...
...apologists for Beijing rushed to adopt either of two contrary positions: The scaremongers warned that tensions across the Taiwan Strait would rise and the risk of military conflict grow, for Chen's Democratic Progressive party (DPP) has favored independence for Taiwan—anathema to China...
...In addition, Chen's election almost certainly marks a new round in the Washington power struggle over China policy between the Republican Congress and the Clinton administration...
...BY JOHN BOLTON Taipei NO SOONER HAD opposition candidate Chen Shui-bian triumphed in Taiwan's presidential election on March 18 than John Bolton is the senior vice president of the American Enterprise Institute...
...Moreover, the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, passed by the The election means that foreign leaders can no longer talk over the heads of the people of Taiwan, as they are accustomed to doing...
...One immediate question is whether Beijing will now attempt to curb the limited popular sovereignty it has allowed in Hong Kong...
...Just as U.S...
...The stage is set for China policy to be an issue in this election year...
...What all the Beijing mavens had in common was denial...
...In fact, the results in Taiwan mark a change in the geopolitics of East Asia that is potentially enormous...
...Chen's victory also means that the open warfare over China policy between Republican leaders in Congress and President Clinton will intensify...
...Finally, in the United States, intense debate on the future of the "one China" policy will now begin...
...Right through the election, the Clinton administration showed its inability to come to grips with reality on the island by trying to manage Taiwan as if it were run by mandarins rather than elected politicians...
...But will our democratically elected leaders acknowledge, or understand, how much difference Taiwan's democratic achievement makes...
...Eighty-two percent of the voters turned out, proving that Taiwan's citizens prize the right to vote and understood that they were offered a meaningful choice...
...The outcome depends in large measure on how China reacts to Chen's victory in the next several weeks...
...President Chen, they predicted, would not deviate greatly from the course either of his defeated opponents would have followed had he prevailed, and the "one China" formula beloved of Beijing and the Clinton administration would remain undisturbed...
...Lee, even while resigning as KMT chairman, has already begun preparations for a calm and efficient transfer of power, the next critical step in the maturation of popular rule...
...If the KMT can be peacefully removed from power on Taiwan, why should the Communists on the mainland be any different...
...But if Beijing unleashes a barrage of criticism of the "renegade province" and its bothersome voters, permanent normal trade relations may be dead for the rest of this election year...
...This bill provides a framework for enhanced U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation, and has Beijing on edge...
...But even more important, Beijing has to worry that its citizens, as they learn of the Taiwanese election, will immediately understand its implications...
...A no-holds-barred campaign demonstrated the strong roots here of freedom of speech and freedom of the press...
...Although demonstrations and "rioting" by disgruntled supporters of the longtime ruling party, the Kuomintang (KMT), dominated the postelection headlines, these relatively small protests reflect continuing tensions among KMT supporters dismayed by their defeat, not any repudiation of the election itself...
...The election means that foreign leaders can no longer talk over the heads of the people of Taiwan, a point they should have realized, but didn't, in dealing with President Lee...
...diplomacy has to take into account the working of European democra-cies—and European diplomacy has to take into account America's domestic politics—so Washington must now internalize the reality that the president of Taiwan has as much popular legitimacy as the president of the United States...
...If Beijing remains mostly quiet and refrains from any bellicose rhetoric or actual military action, permanent normal trade relations may be approved before the Fourth of July recess...
...Permanent normal trade relations between the United States and the PRC, already in jeopardy in Congress, are now even more uncertain...
...Tom DeLay, the third-highest Republican in the House, has already called the policy an "obsolete failure," and many in Congress share his view...
Vol. 5 • April 2000 • No. 28
