The Nominee and the McCain Vote

...We're going to do reform," says a Bush adviser...

...So has Sen...

...Second, he's got to retool his basic message for the general election...

...My guess is probably not...

...As much as anything else, Bush wants to surprise people with his ideas...

...The conventional wisdom about the Bush campaign is that it will wither in the face of Gore's fusillade of accusations...

...offering McCain the vice presidency, even in the face of indications McCain isn't interested, is the surest way...

...We have to decide...

...There's more repackaging to come and some fresh proposals...

...Absent that, Bush still has many other ways to make his candidacy attractive to McCain...

...Likability cannot be overestimated," Luntz says...

...It generally worked, and Bush didn't have to change any policy positions...

...He starts with one important advantage...

...Thompson has the added advantage of comprehensive and detailed knowledge of the Clinton-Gore campaign finance shenanigans of1996.This should not be discounted, given Gore’s attempt to posture as one who has learned from his “mistakes” in 1996 and is now the real campaignfinance reformer in the race...

...The aide says, "There are ten different ways to attack Gore...

...And the Bush team is ready with some volleys of its own...

...He's just not likable and Bush is...

...It showed Reagan wasn't in the pocket of the hard right...

...The result: Reagan endorsed Ford, but mostly sat on his hands during the fall campaign...

...We're going to do it on our issues...

...In short, Bush doesn't really have to do anything out of character to woo McCain...

...I've reached out to people who may not agree with me all the time," he told Jay Leno last week...

...As Bush knows, he's been urging McCain to cool his rhetoric and come to terms with Bush...

...But Bush has it within his power to seize control of the campaign and defeat Gore...

...The day after Bush went on Letterman, pollster Frank Luntz showed a tape of it to a focus group of a dozen people in Orange County, California...

...Developing an exciting message for the general election is Bush's trickiest task...

...First, he's got to reconcile with McCain...

...Then it's time for Bush to do again what Ford didn't—embrace one of his opponent's policies...

...The other part of Operation McCain is for Bush to name a McCain associate as running mate...

...We're going to paint Al Gore as an obstacle to reform on our issues...

...And third, he's got to prepare himself and his allies for the expected assault by Gore...

...McCain could perform this as veep, defense secretary, or outsider...

...Chatting a few days later with Jay Leno, Bush was asked if he'd ever thought about putting down a beer during his college years because he might be running for president some day...

...Hagel comes to mind...

...What if McCain says no...

...Not all, though...

...He's not going to be typical," says a Bush aide...

...Exit polls on Super Tuesday showed that Bush has nearly a 3-2 advantage over Gore in attracting the McCain bloc...

...Also, Bush needs to show he's not a dim bulb...

...McCain's help could put Bush over the top...

...Then Ford declined to adopt any of Reagan's campaign themes or pick a Reagan ally as his running mate...

...Bush is bound to remember the salutary impact the selection of his father as Reagan's running mate had on the GOP campaign in 1980...

...Asking McCain to head up the Bush administration's effort to reform the military establishment makes enormous sense...

...We'll see...

...He simply packaged his programs differently...

...The truth is, Bush's view on campaign finance reform is far from McCain-Feingold, but not that far from a compromise position that McCain has often said he'd accept...

...To put his campaign on the road to victory, Bush has three tasks to accomplish, and they aren't all that daunting...

...He needs to be solicitous, not triumphal, but that's Bush's nature anyway...

...Karl Rove, Bush's chief strategist, says Bush "may have most of that already...

...Bush needs an active McCain...

...And Bush needs his active help in winning over Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...

...But agreement on a few principles of campaign finance would tell McCain his reform spiel is being taken seriously, while not amounting to capitulation by Bush...

...McCain's advisers have informed the Bush camp that McCain requires no quid pro quo for endorsing Bush...

...Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, a buddy of McCain, has packaged such a compromise in a bill that would put a cap on soft money, raise the ceiling on hard money to $3,000 per donor while indexing it for inflation, and put stringent disclosure requirements on independent expenditures (like those anti-McCain ads run by rich Texans in the primaries...

...Besides, McCain would add foreign policy heft, which Bush lacks...

...McCain voters to make sure Gore is defeated...

...This means more talk of reform, less of compassionate conservatism...

...With Gore, even on his best days, folks have trouble warming to him...

...But this won't be sufficient in warding off Gore's slings and arrows...

...He starts the eight-month presidential campaign against Al Gore on a note of uncertainty: McCain may or may not become a full-throated Bush supporter...

...So Gore is a slight favorite at the outset...

...And it wouldn't look as if Bush had knuckled under to McCain...

...Picking McCain would defy the media's caricature of George W. as wholly owned by the religious right...

...To beat Gore, however, Bush must capture McCain voters by a 2-1 or even a 3-1 margin...

...Once part of a compassionate conservative agenda, they became elements of a reform agenda...

...The mild stuff will be criticism of Gore for "failed opportunities" to carry out reforms, especially ones that would have helped the middle and lower-middle class...

...Bush copied McCain's reform rhetoric after losing the New Hampshire primary...

...And while some Christian conservatives would squawk, they wouldn't consider abandoning Bush...

...Though the press trashed Bush's performance, "every time Bush laughed at himself the reaction was positive," says Luntz...

...By the time of the conventions, George Bush will be seen as a different kind of Republican, not as an establishment Republican," the adviser insists...

...McCain loathes Gore and doesn't want him to win the presidency...

...It's ironic that former president Gerald Ford has offered to mediate between Bush and McCain, because the tentative plan of the Bush campaign is to do exactly the opposite of what Ford did in 1976...

...Gore has a fundamental problem...

...Accommodating McCain may be the least of Bush's problems...

...The easiest way is to ask McCain to be his running mate...

...Which is one reason Bush may win the White House after all...

...These issues include education, Social Security, Medicare, taxes, and the military...

...Indignation worked for Bush when McCain likened him to President Clinton on trustworthiness...

...He doesn't want to veer sharply from his primary message, but he does need to demonstrate that he's the reformer By and Gore's the establishment, status quo guy...

...No," Bush deadpanned, and the audience loved it...

...Ford instantly accepted word from Reagan's camp that Reagan, whom he had just defeated for the nomination, didn't want the vice presidency...

...Even in his worst appear-ances—the gig on the David Letter-man show, for instance—people like him...

...Another policy area where Bush could reach out to McCain is the Pentagon...

...He'd merely be picking the best guy for the job...

...Rove says the fight with Gore will come down to "hand-to-hand combat...

...Fred Thompson of Tennessee, also a McCain backer...

...It made moderates, independents, and conservative Democrats feel better— and less scared by Reagan...

...The heavy artillery will be aimed at Gore's ethical lapses and what a Bush aide calls his "difficulty in telling the truth...

...Bush's greatest gift is that when he's tough, or even bumbling, he's still likable...