George W. Bush's Catholic Problem
BARNES, FRED
George W Bush's Catholic Problem He actually planned to court them, but may have inadvertently alienated them. BY FRED BARNES LAST SEPTEMBER, 23 Catholics trekked to Austin, Texas, for two hours...
...From the embryonic days of the Bush presidential campaign, conservative Catholic voters have been a major target, viewed by Bush strategist Karl Rove as a key to winning the White House in 2000...
...But when Hudson read a list of things they'd like Bush to do if elected president—sign a ban on partial-birth abortion, seek to outlaw third Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...George W. Bush...
...In other words, is his original Catholic strategy realistic, post-Bob Jones...
...Vin Weber, who's advising McCain, says Bush has "a Catholic problem" that's worse than he realizes...
...That goes beyond the Bush strategy, but it might work...
...But since then, Republicans have lost Catholic voters in two steps...
...Republicans captured 53 percent of Catholic voters in 1994, but they haven't done as well since...
...In Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, he talked up his tax cut plan and his more conventional conservative positions...
...Says Wagner: "Compassionate conservatism is perfectly designed to appeal to Catholics...
...In the end, Bush may need to pick a Catholic running mate, Weber says...
...Too bad John McCain isn't Catholic...
...He understood his policy of compassionate conservatism and his emphasis on faith-based institutions was fundamentally in line with Catholic social teaching...
...Others aren't so sure...
...This may have been the high point of Bush's wooing of conservative Catholics...
...By and large, Republicans have not recovered the numbers [among Catholics] that Reagan had," says Wagner...
...Bob Dole regained some Catholic votes in 1996, but not as a result of anything he did...
...trimester abortions, stop any federal money for abortions—Bush said these were "no-brainers...
...According to Wagner, many Catholics regard Republicans as too materialistic and insufficiently concerned about losers in the marketplace and the poor...
...To make matters worse, the McCain campaign started what it dubbed a "Catholic voter alert...
...Neither Bush nor Rove has talked publicly about a Catholic strategy...
...A missed opportunity, he called it...
...The group included Bill Donohue of the Catholic League, Father Robert A. Sirico of the Acton Institute, and Deal Hudson, editor of Crisis, the conservative Catholic magazine...
...To attract Catholics, George W. Bush recognized he would have to ease their historic suspicion of Republicans, particularly on economic issues...
...Once McCain began attacking him for failing to chastise Bob Jones for its view of Catholics, however, Bush had a problem...
...None of their visits became controversial, despite the well-known hostility to Catholicism by officials of the school...
...At the least, the phone calls suggested Bush is soft on sworn enemies of the Catholic church...
...As he noted in a nationally televised debate on March 2, Bob Jones had become a regular stopping place for Republicans, including Reagan and his father...
...Compassionate conservatism and government's use of religious organizations to aid the needy...
...By February 20, the day after the South Carolina primary, Bush's Catholic advisers— who had proved unable to stop the growing sense of grievance among the bishops and Catholic voters—were urging Bush to respond...
...BY FRED BARNES LAST SEPTEMBER, 23 Catholics trekked to Austin, Texas, for two hours of conversation with Gov...
...When Bush spoke at the school on February 2, the day after losing the New Hampshire primary, he had no idea his visit would become a drag on his candidacy and a threat to his Catholic strategy...
...Bush was indignant about McCain's criticism, but slow to answer...
...Bush is on notice he must not take Catholics for granted," says pollster Steve Wagner, an expert on Catholic voting patterns...
...Maybe so, but Bush began to de-emphasize it when pressed by McCain in the GOP primaries...
...First, George Bush, father of George W., "took a big hit among active Catholics in 1988," says Wagner...
...For those who aren't familiar with that last concept, it holds, in the words of Pope John Paul, that social needs "are best understood and satisfied by people who are closest to them...
...In targeted phone messages, Catholics were told of Bob Jones's history of anti-Catholicism and of Bush's appearance...
...Bush's response to their leeriness...
...He declined...
...He understood subsidiarity...
...But it took nearly a week for Bush to dispatch a letter to Cardinal O'Connor expressing regret over not upbraiding Bob Jones for anti-Catholic bias...
...And he went further, promising to appoint a pro-life ambassador to the United Nations to fight against abortion as a population control measure...
...Weber, a Catholic, says Bush has "the basis" for appealing to Catholics on issues, but lacks an understanding of "what Catholicism is all about...
...And even conservative Catholics tend to be far less anti-government than most Republicans...
...The group left delighted with Bush...
...At one point in the campaign, Dole was urged to meet with Cardinal O'Connor of New York City...
...He won the presidency anyway...
...In 1984, Ronald Reagan won a majority of Catholics, the first GOP presidential candidate to achieve this...
...After the meeting, "the word went out that Bush was solidly pro-life," says Hudson, who coordinates Bush's informal Catholic advisory group...
...Then came the Bob Jones fiasco...
...But they have one, and it's being pursued more eagerly than ever now in the wake of Bush's visit to Bob Jones University and John McCain's effort to link Bush to the school's anti-Catholicism...
...In 1998, Democratic candidates won 53 percent of Catholics in House races...
...Bush advisers think so...
...But he lost a huge bloc of inactive Catholics—that is, occasional Mass attenders—in 1992 to Ross Perot, and thus was not reelected...
...The Rove strategy was designed to reverse the slow drift of Catholics away from the Republican party...
...This also applies to congressional races...
...The question now is whether Bush still has a chance to gain new support among Catholics...
...Few were committed Bush supporters, and some of the questioning was rough...
Vol. 5 • March 2000 • No. 25
