The Democrats' Marathon

...A former Republican National Committee chairman, Rich Bond, notes that as the Gore-Bradley battle is prolonged, the two Democrats' resources will be depleted, the party will become increasingly fractured, and the candidates will push each other farther and farther left...

...says Bradley's communications director, Matthew Rees is a staff writer at THE WEEKLY STANDARD...

...These polls, coupled with control of a few hundred delegates, could also convince Bradley that he's entitled to keep campaigning...

...in the past, a defeat in the primary there has hampered fund-raising...

...An early Bush sweep: In the four weeks following the New Hampshire primary there will be Republican primaries or caucuses in Hawaii, Delaware, South Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Virginia, Washington, and North Dakota...

...Another factor is that Bradley has never been much of a partisan...

...Here's why reporters may still be writing about a competitive Democratic race well into the summer: ¶ Money: Bradley outraised Gore two-to-one in the fourth quarter of 1999, and he should have $4 million more to spend this year than the vice president...

...Indeed, the 1980 election showed the damage that can be done by a lengthy primary contest...

...But this misses the mark...

...This will be Bradley's best opportunity to prove he has national appeal and to persuade the media, and the all-important superdele-gates—party bigshots who automatically get votes at the convention— that Gore is vulnerable...

...When set against the likelihood that Bush will quickly wrap up the nomination with over $35 million still at his disposal, this prospect reinforces Republican confidence about November...

...We're prepared, structured, and organized to wage this battle from congressional district to congressional district, from state to state, all the way to the convention floor...

...Pleas for him to withdraw for the sake of party unity are likely to fall on deaf ears," says Paul Begala, a former Clinton aide...

...BY MATTHEW REES If Bill Bradley's candidacy isn't finished off by a defeat in New Hampshire on February 1, it will be doomed by the five Gore-friendly southern primaries on March 14—so goes the emerging conventional wisdom...

...Even better for Bradley is that a slew of friendly states hold a primary or caucuses on March 7: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington...

...Indeed, Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, notes that in every instance where the losing contender for a major party's presidential nomination has managed to win more than one-third of the delegates in the primaries—a threshold Bradley (or Gore) could easily meet—that party's nominee has lost the general election...

...Pride and the polls: Gore's nightmare is that he wraps up the nomination sometime this spring, but Bradley refuses to leave the race...

...This helps Bradley, who remains the underdog in more states than Gore, but who's nevertheless likely to receive up to 40 percent of the vote in a number of states...

...The effect, says Brian Lunde, a former executive director of the Democratic National Committee, is that "you don't win much when you win...

...In other words, the GOP race could be settled by March 7, when the Democrats are just getting revved up...

...The polls might continue to show Bradley besting Gore in a head-to-head matchup with the Republican nominee, prompting superdelegates to throw their support behind him...

...For several reasons, Gore will find it difficult to deliver a knockout punch...

...With more money than Gore and, most likely, a New Hampshire victory in his back pocket, he'll have five weeks to build on his momentum in delegate-rich states like California, where he's already made inroads in Silicon Valley, and New York...

...And the gap should benefit Bradley...

...And then there's Bradley's home state, New Jersey, which joins four other states in being the last to hold a primary, on June 6. Bradley could say that he wanted to give New Jersey Democrats a chance to vote for him...

...Gore's likely loss in New Hampshire could widen this gap...

...The calendar: After the New Hampshire primary on February 1, there's not another Democratic contest until March 7. In a presidential campaign, this is an eternity...

...The beneficiary of their struggle will presumably be the Republican nominee...

...Bradley feels the Gore campaign has recklessly misrepresented his views, and his personal animosity for Gore is much greater than any found in the Republican field...

...indeed, the contest could last until June or longer...

...Just what will it mean if the Democratic contest drags on for months...

...The Democrats are more egalitarian, doling out delegates according to each candidate's percentage of the vote...

...Anita Dunn, "Both sides are quietly settling in for a protracted struggle...

...But, DeGraff adds, no one should expect a quick and easy Bradley withdrawal...

...Delegate allocation: In the vast majority of Republican primaries and caucuses, the candidate who wins the most votes is rewarded with all the state's delegates...

...It's a significant headache," says Jody Powell, who was Jimmy Carter's press secretary in 1980 when Kennedy was seeking to unseat the president...

...Gore and his aides would trumpet the need for party unity, but Bradley could cite one of the vice president's leading supporters, Ted Kennedy, who stayed in the race against Jimmy Carter in 1980...

...Similarly, after Gore has spent months hammering Bradley as a quitter, the reserved former hoop star may decide to stay and fight...

...Bradley's money advantage will help him compete nationally and bounce back from inevitable setbacks (a luxury Gary Hart did not have when he was challenging Walter Mondale for the Democratic nomination in 1984...

...There are a number of reasons why this could happen...

...Indeed, he could offset his likely defeats in the Southern primaries, for example, by turning in a strong performance in Illinois a week later, and in Pennsylvania two weeks after that...

...If Bush (or, for that matter, McCain) has already wrapped up the Republican nomination, these voters may choose to participate in a contest that still matters...

...The Bradley campaign insists it understands this history...

...That could provide a big boost to Bradley, particularly in California: Polls show he's more popular than Gore with independents and Republicans, and California's open primary leaves them free to vote Democratic...

...By contrast, the only pro-Gore states voting that day are Georgia, Ohio, and Maryland...

...For our party to be successful in November," says top Bradley aide Jacques DeGraff, "we can't drag things out until June...