John McCain's Southern Strategy
BARNES, FRED
John McCain's Southern Strategy He's still a longshot in the crucial South Carolina primary, but he's making headway. BY FRED BARNES Spartanburg, S.C. JOHN MCCAIN'S THEORY of the Republican...
...The idea is that national polls showing George W. Bush with an enormous lead over McCain mean zilch now...
...En route to the school, he jokingly told reporters, "It's the place they make sneakers...
...Bob Dole, a war hero like McCain, tried to appeal to them in 1996 on veterans' issues and got nowhere...
...Ronald Reagan | in 1980 and George Bush (the 1 father) in 1988 got small boosts from winning the New Hampshire primary...
...ahead in South Carolina and won easily...
...He's lined up the support of the lieuThe momentum theory draws scorn from the Bush camp...
...Strom Thurmond is on board...
...In 1996, Patrick j? Buchanan won in New Hamp-| shire only to be clobbered by | Bob Dole here...
...The pastors at least, if not the members, of many large Baptist and charismatic churches are pro-Bush, having been recruited by Ralph Reed, the ex-Christian Coalition official...
...South Carolina is not moderate country...
...Big mo, no go," says Karl Rove, Bush's chief strategist...
...Forget history, says Trey Walker, McCain's national field director...
...Big mo, no go," says Karl Rove, Bush's chief strategist...
...All this has improved McCain's standing in South Carolina...
...Lindsey Graham, a House impeachment manager and probably the state's most popular politician...
...Also, there are two other early events that aren't likely to aid McCain...
...We'll make our own history...
...South Carolina has more households with veterans—38 percent—than any other state...
...It recently featured an article with the headline: "10 Reasons Why George W. Bush Won't Do...
...Second, there's the nature of the state's Republicans...
...And McCain says he'll devote virtually his entire campaign schedule to South Carolina for the 18 days after the New Hampshire primary...
...Bush is heavily favored to win the Iowa caucuses on January 24 and the Delaware primary on February 8. As pro-McCain as the national media are, they can't ignore these contests...
...McCain claims it already has...
...He would have "an extremely difficult time winning the nomination without South Carolina," he conceded...
...But it's the momentum theory that draws the most scorn from the Bush camp...
...Clearly it's going to get closer," says Heath Thompson, Bush's campaign director for the state...
...A Time/CNN poll last month found Bush ahead by 62-15 percent...
...A victory in South Carolina would further transform the national polls in McCain's favor and make him viable in Michigan, Virginia, Washington, and everywhere else...
...That goes a long ways in South Carolina...
...In answering questions from voters, he endorsed Reagan's view that the Panama Canal should never have been given up, strongly opposed gays in the military, called for tax reform and deep spending cuts, said Social Security should be partially privatized, and said Elian Gonzalez shouldn't be sent back to Cuba...
...They tend to be institutional voters, going along with the party's top leaders, who are mostly for George W. And nearly half of the GoP electorate consists of evangelical Christians...
...I can assure you if I'm president, this young man would not have to go back to a life of slavery," he told the Charleston Rotary Club...
...Result: McCain will be hard pressed to pull off an upset in South Carolina...
...Stranger things have happened...
...That's the momentum theory, anyway...
...There are two big problems with it...
...Maybe, but many of the Bush backers are in their 40s and 50s and not about to retire...
...It's of transcendent importance," he told the Charleston Rotarians...
...Result: McCain is the GOP nominee...
...A first-place finish in the New Hampshire primary on February 1 would change everything, giving McCain a 15 or 20 percentage point surge in support, a jolt of political momentum, and a chance to win the South Carolina primary on February 19...
...As for Bush, whose nomination was supposedly inevitable, a series of losses would force him to drop out...
...In South Carolina, there's no tradition of cross-party voting in primaries...
...At Converse College in Spartanburg, he gave a speech on the "conservative case for campaign finance reform...
...So what gives McCain a chance in South Carolina at all...
...Moreover, McCain's strategy of organizing military veterans into a force at the polls is dubious...
...But they were already far Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...No "significant evangelical leader" is supporting McCain, Reed says...
...His speech was bland, but when McCain followed by taking questions from the audience, he was dazzling...
...And he would have a hard time winning South Carolina without an unprecedented bounce from a win in New Hampshire...
...It's on one page—win New Hampshire, win South Carolina," he says...
...He's proven to be a formidable campaigner here...
...Carroll Campbell, for one, is making plans to run for governor again in 2002...
...McCain, in contrast, is already a national figure...
...The first is history, which hasn't treated the theory kindly in South Carolina...
...McCain doesn't minimize the role of South Carolina...
...They've had a president for eight years they could never believe," says McCain consultant Richard Quinn, "and now there's a guy they can always believe...
...The McCain forces suggest the Bush team represents a fading GOP establishment soon to be replaced by Young Turks like Graham and Mark Sanford, the Charleston congressman who's keeping his promise to retire in 2000 after three terms...
...Quinn, by the way, puts out a fiercely conservative magazine called the Southern Partisan...
...Yet McCain does have a shot here, and that's amazing in itself...
...The state is also far more conservative than New Hampshire, and McCain appeals especially to moderate Republicans and those whose identification with the party is soft...
...JOHN MCCAIN'S THEORY of the Republican presidential campaign is elegantly simple...
...While McCain hasn't changed any positions, he does play up his conservative side in South Carolina...
...A McCain poll, conducted in early December, pared Bush's lead to roughly 52-26 percent, campaign aides said...
...I don't think history repeats itself," he says...
...The fundamental underpinning of the campaign is he's the anti-Clinton," says John Weaver, McCain's political director...
...Bush strategists are hardly panicking...
...But veterans have never voted as a bloc...
...At Converse, his appearance was preceded by a powerful 9-minute video about his experience as a POW in North Vietnam...
...South Carolina is not New Hampshire, where McCain expects to attract a slew of independents to the Republican primary...
...Graham's presence as an ardent McCain backer underscores the contrast with Clinton...
...He points out that the theory has worked only for political unknowns such as Jimmy Carter and Gary Hart who burst on to the national political scene with a New Hampshire breakthrough...
...tenant governor, attorney general, state house speaker, adjutant general, three former governors, and two congressmen...
...After that, the McCain juggernaut prevails...
...Former Gov...
...For one thing, Bush's appearances in South Carolina have drawn huge and enthusiastic audiences...
...I've got more Clinton fatigue than the average person," he adds...
...If there's a more anti-Clinton state, "I don't want to go there," says Rep...
...So does McCain's emphasis on his Vietnam war record and his integrity...
...And Sen...
Vol. 5 • December 1999 • No. 15
