A Democratic House for President Bush
BARNES, FRED
A Democratic House for President Bush Republican strategists now fear that even a Bush victory won’t save the GOP House. BY FRED BARNES HERE’S HOW BADLY Republican prospects for holding...
...Republican retirements, in contrast, have soared...
...It was reflected in the presence of Maria Cino at a strategy session in Washington in early November...
...In Texas, he faces exactly that, and one result was a substantially pared-down tax cut and modified education program...
...Their hopes of galvanizing voters with a $792 billion tax cut were dashed when an effort to market the tax measure over the summer failed to stir grass-roots enthusiasm...
...Most alarming of all to Republicans is the Democrats’ single-minded focus on winning back the House...
...The Mississippi governor’s race was the key test...
...So they’re channeling money to the House...
...Six months ago, after experiencing a post-impeachment surge in popularity, Republicans figured they’d keep the House, despite the slimness of their current majority, just five votes...
...When these issues are front and center, Republicans play defense...
...This year, Republicans narrowly won the legislature in Virginia but lost elsewhere...
...Democrats have little chance of taking the Senate (now 55-45 Republican) and they’re pessimistic about the White House...
...The issue agenda turned sharply against Republicans...
...Polls showed they’d reached parity with Democrats on voter preference for the House in 2000...
...His aides have told GOP strategists that he doesn’t want his agenda stymied by a Democratic House...
...Absent a market crash, this will remain true in 2000...
...But these remain Democratic themes, and the best Republicans can do is neutralize them...
...Everyone is trying to put the best face on it,” says a Republican operative...
...The union operation is already ginned up,” says GOP pollster Frank Luntz...
...The 1993 results were a precursor to triumph in 1994...
...Minority leader Richard Gephardt has talked numerous Democrats out of retiring or running for higher office, thereby reducing the number of open Democratic seats that are easier for Republicans to win...
...Speaker Dennis Hastert has done his best to minimize the harm...
...She was a top campaign adviser to House Republicans in the heady years leading up to 1994, when they took over the House...
...House Republicans have a designated savior, Bush...
...In at least 3 of the GOP seats, Democrats are favored...
...Republican Mike Parker ran on personality and leadership...
...Their best issues—crime, welfare, national security—are dormant...
...Now, the headiness is gone, and Republicans need help...
...If it’s 7 points, flip a coin...
...It shows how Gov...
...Under Hastert, Republicans also took the edge off the Social Security and education issues...
...Republicans have a good shot now only at the Michigan seat being vacated by Debbie Stabenow, who’s running for the Senate...
...Labor is targeting three dozen Republican seats...
...The best explanation is that millions of taxpayers are flush with earnings from stock market gains and don’t feel pinched by taxes...
...Anyway, the Democratic agenda took over: gun control, health care, education, Social Security, Medicare...
...If Bush wins by 8 points or more, we probably retain the House,” a Republican strategist says...
...The man many Republicans thought had caused a lot of their troubles in Congress, Newt Gingrich, was gone...
...Things changed quickly...
...This could help, and heaven knows Republicans need it...
...In 1993, Republican George Allen won a smashing victory for governor of Virginia, running on conservative themes that GOP congressional candidates repeated a year later...
...The money—a minimum of $30 million— would go for TV ads and organizing...
...To avert this, Bush has promised to direct a disproportionate amount of general election spending to 30 pivotal House districts...
...Among GOP incumbents, one is in deep trouble (Merrill Cook of Utah) and a few others in jeopardy...
...The assessment that came out of the meeting with Cino is that Republicans will lose the House by five or six seats...
...If you think unions were effective in 1996 and 1998, it’s nothing compared to what they’ll do in 2000...
...Bush may yet play godfather to House Republicans...
...If it’s 6 points or less, we start to get into trouble...
...But several, notably the patients’ bill of rights and gun control, will be back in 2000...
...His strategy is to “get as many [Democratic bills] as possible off the table this year,” says an adviser...
...That scared the hell out of me,” Luntz said...
...Lieutenant governor Ronnie Musgrove ran on education and quality of life issues, stirred a large black turnout, and won...
...Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...Bush can carry the White House by 10 or 12 points and Republicans still lose the House...
...In a September poll, Luntz asked if voters favored a Republican president and a Democratic Congress, and 12 percent said yes...
...Republicans should pray 1999 wasn’t a precursor...
...Cino lives in Austin, Texas, where she is the political director of Bush’s campaign...
...Of the 24 open House seats, 19 are Republican...
...The Democrats’ concentration on the House is even more evident in fund-raising and outside help...
...President Clinton then vetoed the measure with impunity, and Republicans aren’t sure why the tax fight turned out as it did...
...And Tom Davis of Virginia, the chairman of the House Republican Congressional Committee, was credited with recruiting strong candidates for open and vulnerable Democratic seats next year...
...This may be optimistic...
...I see no equivalent operation by business...
...But there is a mood of alarm among Republicans...
...The 1999 election results didn’t give Republicans any encouragement either...
...BY FRED BARNES HERE’S HOW BADLY Republican prospects for holding the House of Representatives in 2000 have deteriorated: A new poll suggests that even a solid victory in the presidential race by George W. Bush wouldn’t guarantee GOP control...
...They assume he’ll be the GOP presidential nominee, though that’s hardly a certainty...
Vol. 5 • November 1999 • No. 10
