POLLS APART

...But among likely voters D'Amato led 49 percent-46 percent...

...Michael Barone is a senior staff editor at Reader's Digest and co-author of THE ALMANAC OF AMERICAN POLITICS...

...Still further confirmation: The CNN/ Time poll of September 2324 showed registered voters favoring Democratic House candidates by 48 percent-41 percent, but likely voters favoring Republicans 49 per-cent-45 percent...

...Carol Moseley-Braun is running behind, Barbara Boxer says she's having difficulty raising money, Patty Murray is under 50 percent, and Geraldine Ferraro lost in a low-turnout primary...

...This year, the more intense a person's engagement with politics, the more likely he is to say he'll vote Republican...

...The explanation lies in turnout: All the evidence we have from recent polls and from August and September primaries indicates that core Republicans are much more likely to go to the polls than core Democrats...

...My guess is that the balance of intensity will not change much...

...This pattern is repeated in recent polls in the California and New York Senate races...

...In New York, Democratic turnout for the September 15 primary to choose D'Amato's opponent was down 37 percent from the Democratic turnout for the same seat in 1992...

...Similarly, the ABC News/Washington Post survey conducted September 25-28, while the Clinton White House was crowing about its recovery, showed all adults favoring Democratic House candidates by 51 percent-42 percent, but likely voters favoring Republicans 49 percent-46 percent—very similar to the lead Republicans held among likely voters at this stage in 1994, when they would go on to carry the House vote 52 percent-45 percent...

...This is not the typical pattern...

...There is no guarantee that this balance of intensi-ty—with strong Republicans energized, and strong Democrats dispirited—will last through November 3. It evidently results from many core Republicans' feeling that Bill Clinton must not be allowed to evade what they deem the proper consequences of his (partially) admitted misdeeds—the same feeling that motivates the dozens of demonstrators who appear outside Clinton's public appearances with "Impeach" signs and spinach-dip-stained blue dresses...

...Democrats will argue that Republicans' support for impeachment hearings springs from partisan animus, but this claim will be undercut if (as appears likely) any significant number of House Democrats vote for hearings...

...An independent ad campaign proposed by People for the American Way seems designed to cheer up core Democrats...

...Since 1974, only about a third of those eligible have gone to the polls in off-year congressional elections, and among this group the Republican edge increases the more committed the respondents are to participating in politics...

...Earlier this year, I advanced the hypothesis that the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal would reduce turnout among strong Democrats, especially the feminist Left, which this decade has been the greatest source of energy, enthusiasm, and élan in the Democratic party (just as the religious Right has been in the Republican party...

...In the August and September primaries I did...

...If I'm right, the Republicans will make significant gains in both House and Senate...

...But likely voters favored hearings by 53 per-cent-45 percent...

...But this year— even after the supposed Clinton uptick following the release of the videotape of the president's grand-jury testimony on September 21—the difference between all adults or all registered voters and likely voters is greater than I can remember in 25 years of watching polls...

...The New York Daily News/WABC poll showed Democratic congressman Charles Schumer leading Republican incumbent Alfonse D'Amato by 50 percent-43 percent among all voters...

...Thus, in the September 22-23 New York Times/CBS News poll, among all registered voters, Republicans trailed in the generic House vote—Which party's candidate will you vote for?—by 39 percent-44 percent...

...The Los Angeles Times poll showed Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer ahead by 47 percent-39 percent among all voters...

...But many core Democrats are black, and the interpretation of the Voting Rights Act supported by Democrats, while it has maximized the number of majority-black districts, has minimized the number of blacks in many marginal districts...

...mood many of them appeared to display from February to July...

...But among more likely voters (who say they will definitely vote, are paying attention, and voted in both 1994 and 1996), the Republican margin was 50 percent-41 percent...

...POLLS APART by Michael Barone Start with this anomaly: Most Americans say they oppose impeaching Bill Clinton, yet almost all signs point to a victory in the November 3 congressional elections for the Republicans, who are more likely to vote for impeachment...

...Indeed, this election could produce a mirror image of the midterm election of 1974, when a disheartened Republican core did not turn out at the polls, and Democrats won one of the greatest victories in their party's history...

...In this survey, all adults opposed impeachment hearings by 55 percent-42 percent...

...Certainly Democrats will make major efforts to increase turnout among core Democrats...

...Likely voters (who say they will definitely vote, are paying attention to the campaign, and voted in either 1994 or 1996) gave the Republicans a statistically insignificant advantage, 44 percent-43 percent (mirroring the 1996 House-election result, 49 percent-48.5 percent Republican...

...In Colorado, which held seriously contested races in both parties' primaries for senator and governor on August 11, 61 percent of the two-party turnout was Republican, though only 53 percent of the two-party registration is Republican...

...In Florida down-ballot races on September 1, two-party turnout ranged from 48 percent to 52 percent Republican, while two-party registration is only 46 percent Republican...

...Yet more corroboration comes from actual turnout in primaries...

...The feminist Left has had a shorter run, and its favorite candidates are obviously in trouble...

...And among the most likely voters (who say they will definitely vote, are paying a lot of attention, and voted in 1994 and 1996), the margin was 53 percent-41 percent Republican...

...The numbers were similar in Nevada and Wyoming...

...In most elections, people who vote scarcely differ in party preference from people who don't...

...In fact, it may turn out that what we are witnessing in suppressed Democratic turnout is the disintegration of the feminist Left as a political force—just as, in 1974, the low Republican turnout after Watergate reflected the disintegration of the small-town Republicans, who had been Richard Nixon's base and who (with help from conservative southern Democrats) had maintained working control of the House almost without interruption since 1938...

...He's getting away with it...

...Core Democrats, by contrast, seem downcast—far from the "Yahoo...

...but it has been opposed by congressional Democrats, who want to see scarce money spent on their own campaigns rather than on a Clinton effort, as in 1996...

...Translated into popular votes, that last would produce a Republican majority larger than any since the 1920s...

...More is at stake here than Bill Clinton's fate...

...But among likely voters, Republican Matt Fong led 48 per-cent-43 percent...

...But when I looked at turnout in primaries from March to July, I found no such effect...

...The Florida exit poll showed Republican gubernatorial candidate Jeb Bush leading Democrat Buddy MacKay by a whopping 58 percent-29 percent—the best poll result for Bush in the whole cycle...