LET'S NOT MAKE A DEAL

...Greg Mastel is director of the Global Economic Policy Project (GEPP) at the New America Foundation...

...In 1992, candidate Clinton attacked President Bush for kowtowing to the Chinese...

...companies, the Clinton administration has pursued policies nearly identical to those of the Bush administration...

...All these developments—not to mention the fact that China has lately been threatening to take military action against Taiwan, a democratic power and valued American ally—make it particularly odd that the United States is contemplating rewarding China with WTO membership...

...Further, the WTO is a rule-based institution, much like a U.S...

...A powerful statement from Bush in particular on this topic would probably give the administration and Congress pause...

...Normally, such a decision by Washington would have ended the immediate issue, but in a strange turn of events, some major American companies engaged in a lobbying campaign coordinated with Premier Zhu to win support for China's WTO ambitions...

...In this instance, however, Congress and the upcoming elections provide the best chance to reverse a flawed foreign policy...

...indeed, it has repeated Bush's mistakes...

...Negotiations were incomplete on matters such as access of U.S...

...Unfortunately, although China's membership in the WTO would allow some in both countries to declare victory, the agreement as now formulated is unlikely to serve the long-term interests of the United States...

...The one-sided coverage of the embassy bombing whipped up a frenzy that Chinese leaders were willing to tolerate as long as it deflected attention from their own much larger, intentional killing of Chinese citizens a decade earlier...

...exports to China would rise by billions of dollars a year if China joined the WTO...

...trade deficit...

...business community and some in the Clinton administration began nearly begging China to move forward with its WTO application...

...If President Clinton and President Jiang announce a deal this week, future historians will wonder at the logic that led Washington to accede to China's wish for WTO membership even as Beijing threatened possibly imminent military action against Taiwan...

...telecommunications and financial services companies to the Chinese market and the all-important issue of enforcement...

...It may prove difficult even to establish the existence of objectionable Chinese trade policies before a WTO dispute-settlement panel, much less win a ruling against them...

...President Clinton and his team have allowed engagement to blind them to the dark side of the Beijing regime and obscure America's interest in relation to China...

...The administration also was undeterred by the fact that letting China into the WTO would amount to a major concession from the United States...

...For example, it has adroitly employed a combination of developing-country rhetoric and economic threats to block criticism of its human rights policies at the United Nations...

...much remained to be negotiated, and he wanted time to analyze the package carefully and consult with Congress...

...Congress, to which the Constitution assigns responsibility for international trade, could ignore the blandishments of China's apologists and demand that any WTO agreement be truly enforceable—even if that means slowing the bandwagon for China's membership...

...exports...

...LET'S NOT MAKE A DEAL by Greg Mastel This week, the presidents of China and the United States are poised to strike a historic and probably irreversible agreement paving the way for China to join the World Trade Organization...

...court...

...Beyond that, China has a truly awful record of keeping the promises it makes in trade agreements...

...For years, it routinely violated bilateral agreements with the United States on protection of intellectual property and market access for U.S...

...But even if China makes no military move, the United States is striking a deal likely to be celebrated for mere months and regretted for decades...

...Some Chinese leaders suggested that the United States should lower its demands for WTO membership in the wake of the bombing...

...But Beijing has strongly opposed such provisions, and a Clinton administration that sees China's WTO accession as part of its "legacy" seems unlikely to press the matter...

...Last week, the International Trade Commis-, sion more realistically predicted an ; increase in the U.S...

...in an even stranger turn of events, however, on May 7, NATO forces accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, killing three Chinese citizens...

...foreign policy...

...President Clinton correctly delayed a decision...

...soil to the effect that the deal would be wrapped up quickly...

...in April, on his visit to the United States, China's premier, Zhu Rongji, offered some impressive concessions...

...Conceivably, a WTO accession agreement that included very tough oversight measures would actually improve the prospects for American trade with China...

...It might be possible to fashion a WTO accession agreement that would promote U.S...

...Perhaps swayed by eagerness for a foreign policy success, as well as by the lobbying of some U.S...

...China, however, is not a rule-based society, and policy is often made without a transparent paper trail...

...In theory, scrutiny by the World Trade Organization itself would replace the threat of unilateral sanctions...

...The possibility of multilateral pressure on China to move away from its mercantilist policies is promising in concept, but it is not at all clear how successful the WTO would be at disciplining China...

...Foreign policy mavens are fond of blasting Congress and elections for distorting U.S...

...The United States would give up the one lever that has forced China to make some grudging progress on trade and other issues as well: the threat of unilateral sanctions...

...At the same time, China suspended all negotiations on WTO membership, which were already troubled because Chinese negotiators seemed to be backing away from earlier promises...

...If China were a WTO member, Washington could not impose such sanctions...

...These I estimates conveniently overlooked the = problem of enforcement of past agree: ments, even though it had been e acknowledged by the administration...

...With a largely unenforceable trade agreement at the core of their strategy, they seem willing to accept on faith the promises of China's leaders to fulfill hundreds of complex trade commitments...

...The U.S...

...Looking to deflect public attention from the upcoming ten-year anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, Chinese leaders loosed their propaganda machine...

...in addition, Vice President Al Gore or the leading Republican contender for the presidential nomination, George W. Bush, could decide to distinguish himself from his political predecessors and propose a more realistic policy toward China...

...Even in the best of times, however, the rush to reach an accord on WTO membership would be ill advised...

...interests, but the incomplete offer made by Premier Zhu was not by itself such an agreement...

...Nevertheless, with at least tacit administration encouragement, several groups began reporting economic "projections" that U.S...

...Surprisingly, the Clinton administration seemed to give in to this lobbying campaign and issued repeated joint statements with Zhu before his departure from U.S...

...and other major WTO members, including the European Union, had not wrapped up their talks with China...

...China has sought membership in the World Trade Organization for well over a decade, but in the last few months the usually staid negotiations have had more twists and turns than a soap opera...

...Beijing has proven adept at playing international politics to divide its critics and frustrate efforts to isolate it or challenge its policies...