BUSH SCALIA
BARNES, FRED
BUSH SCALIA WHO IS GEORGE W. BUSH'S IDEAL JUDGE, the model for nominees he'd pick for the Supreme Court? Antonin Scalia, that's who. In public comments, of course, Bush has declared his desire, if...
...In Pennsylvania last week, while campaigning with pro-choice governor Tom Ridge, Bush said he would not apply a pro-life litmus test to his vice presidential running mate if he wins the GOP nomination...
...This is exactly Bush's position...
...This belief goes back to his 1994 victory over incumbent Ann Richards in the Texas governor's race...
...John McCain has no GOP base...
...Gary Bauer and Pat Buchanan will hang around in the primaries, but only as conservative gadflies...
...Dole lacks organization and money...
...Gore, in announcing his candidacy, called for universal preschool, expanding Medicare, and other steps by the federal government...
...Bush declined to give his view of Roe v. Wade when I asked, in another written question, if he believed the case was wrongly decided...
...I'm not a lawyer," he said...
...To match McKinley's feat, Bush has redefined conservatism and aims to pull in more women, Hispanics, blacks, and Catholics...
...Naturally, Bush was zinged in the press for having ties to lobbyists...
...Karl Rove, Bush's top strategist, likens 2000 to 1896, when William McKinley recognized the old post-Civil War issues had lost their bite and the GOP needed to attract new voters from the growing immigrant working class...
...I have great respect for Justice Scalia," Bush said, "for the strength of his mind, the consistency of his convictions, and the judicial philosophy he defends...
...But while the assumption that sharp attacks don't work may be true in a general election, it may not hold up in primaries with multiple candidates...
...Under Bush, new programs to help the poor and dis-advantaged would be run by private and religious organizations and not directly by government...
...In which case, the advocate of less government, Bush, wins against the exponent of big government, Al Gore...
...Some Bush aides thought he might cite Clarence Thomas, nominated by Bush's father, President Bush, in 1991, as the model for his judicial appointments...
...Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...He cannot impose...
...Thus, less government, a conservative goal...
...McKinley created a governing Republican majority that lasted to 1932...
...Appointed by President Reagan in 1986, Scalia is one of the most conservative justices on the high court, and is part of the minority that favors overturning Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision that legalized abortion...
...Voters are more likely to fault the attacker than the attacked...
...Last, there's a big-picture Bush assumption: that the 2000 election is a major one, an important transition particularly for Republicans...
...But a president can lead by opposing public funding for abortion, by praising the private goodness of crisis pregnancy centers, by promoting adoption, by teaching abstinence to children, by ending partial-birth abortion...
...Compassionate conservatism is crafted with all of them in mind...
...In a June NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, he led his nearest GOP rival, Elizabeth Dole, by 61 percent to 11 percent...
...He never mentions abortion in prepared remarks...
...Another assumption: Negative attacks have lost their sting...
...For now, Bush is playing up the compassionate side of "compassionate conservatism," but there's also a conservative side...
...A massive Forbes air war, they fear, just might take a toll...
...One of the most important working assumptions of the Bush campaign is that abortion is a losing issue for Bush (or for any Republican running nationally...
...Who knows...
...Bush believes there's been a fundamental shift in public sentiment against harsh attacks...
...But he does answer questions on the issue...
...Now, when Democratic national chairman Joe Andrew followed Bush around Iowa and New Hampshire, Bush spokesman David Beckwith simply belittled him as "the attack puppy...
...More than 2,000 elected officials, lobbyists, party leaders, and activists paid $1,000 apiece to attend a Bush fundraiser in Washington last week...
...But when asked about the kind of judge he would really want, Bush was quite specific...
...Bush singled out Scalia in response to a written question I submitted to his presidential campaign...
...In one sense, Bush's willingness to spotlight Scalia was surprising...
...And finally: What would Bush do as president to protect unborn children and make the country more willing to accept a ban on abortion in most cases...
...Yes, an attack on Bush by Steve Forbes could backfire on Forbes...
...Note the conflict here with the prior assumption about attack ads...
...Bush doesn't take any of the other candidates seriously...
...This is probably true...
...Still, he is reluctant to tout it...
...Deputy House whip Roy Blunt of Missouri said he hadn't seen such an outpouring of Republican support for a presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan was seeking reelection in 1984...
...The soft counterpunch worked...
...Another assumption of the Bush campaign is that support for his presidential bid by the Republican establishment reflects more than elite backing...
...Richards slashed at Bush, and he responded with a television ad saying he'd treat her "with respect" and that issues, not personal attacks, "should be the focus in this campaign...
...Laws are changed as minds are persuaded...
...This reflects the Bush camp's obsession with the power of money in politics...
...Forbes, by the way, is assumed by the Bush campaign to be his only threatening rival...
...But it could still hurt Bush indirectly by helping Dole or Lamar Alexander...
...In public comments, of course, Bush has declared his desire, if elected president, to choose judges who interpret the Constitution strictly, and Scalia qualifies on that count...
...Bush is not an admirer of his father's other nominee, David Souter, now one of the Court's leading liberals...
...The goal is to build a culture of life brick by brick...
...Still another assumption of the Bush campaign is that the general election will be a contest between big government and less government...
...The more visibility the issue gets, the worse it is for Bush...
...It may work...
...Bush's fund-raisers are bent on amassing a war chest in case their candidate needs to answer a volley of attack ads by Forbes...
...Every bit as conservative as Scalia, Thomas would likewise reverse Roe v. Wade...
...But Thomas is more controversial as a result of sexual harassment charges made against him by Anita Hill...
...In a democracy, a leader can propose," Bush said...
...They wouldn't publicly endorse Bush unless there was grass-roots backing for him...
...He and his aides believe this despite a recent CNN/^5^ Today poll that found 71 percent of Americans would allow abortions only in cases of rape, incest, or saving the life of the mother...
...But Bush strategists said the backing of elected officials—126 House members, 17 senators—is more revealing...
...My job is to appoint judges who are strict constructionists...
Vol. 4 • July 1999 • No. 40
