THE ANOINTED ONE
BARNES, FRED
THE ANOINTED ONE George W Bush—the Man, the Plan, the Moment of Truth By Fred Barnes Austin, Texas Republicans who've waited impatiently for months to crown Texas governor George W. Bush as...
...After several months of campaigning, Rove says Bush should be seen as "an activist conservative, a charismatic campaigner who talked about ideas in a way that is appealing...
...With compassionate conservatism, Bush brings a free-market, religious orientation to social ills like poverty and bad urban schools that normally are emphasized by liberals...
...Barbara Bush, his mother, said at an Atlanta fund-raiser in May: "If he doesn't run, I'll kill him...
...One thing it means is that Bush will focus in speeches on non-traditional subjects for a Republican: the poor, the jailed, the non-English speaking, the badly educated...
...This is tricky, however, since 114 GOP House members and 14 senators have already endorsed him...
...He wants to put a new face on the party—his...
...Details to follow...
...The party will deal with whatever it has ^Jn to deal with, but it'll be harder if the nominee isn't Bush...
...The House would be bolstered in holding its majority...
...The campaigns of personal destruction must end...
...In fact, Bush won't make much of an effort to shore up his conservative credentials...
...Well, look at the alternatives, the Republican says...
...That's the plan anyway...
...Bush is so eager to deliver the speech he injected parts of it into what were supposed to be humdrum remarks at a fund-raiser in San Antonio on June 1. "Prosperity without purpose is just materialism," he said...
...Senator John McCain is the darling of the media, "but not for standing up for things we believe in...
...The idea, says Bush, is that "changing hearts" will also change behavior and "affect policy the way we want it...
...I believe in positive campaigns...
...So much so that he's all but leapfrogged the primaries and begun the general-election campaign...
...There will be ample opportunity to lay out a specific agenda," including a "detailed tax plan...
...The homogeneity of the _ vision is remarkable," according to Coverdell...
...If people like what they see, that's great...
...Senator Paul Coverdell of Georgia, Bush's chief Senate backer, says Bush has worked on issues—drugs, education reform, tax cuts— that matter to Senate Republicans...
...In 1996, President Clinton sought to connect a liberal approach with a conservative agenda...
...The most amazing thing about the embrace of Bush by Capitol Hill Republicans is the vision of a 2000 landslide he's somehow planted in their minds...
...Bush says all he can do is "work hard, talk about what I believe, lay out the specific agenda at the appropriate time, and see what happens...
...Coverdell says when Republicans hear about how well Bush has done in Texas with women, Hispanic, and black voters, "the tree lights up...
...He told me, for instance, his policy toward China will be different from that of his father, President Bush, as well as from Clinton's...
...Karl Rove, Bush's top political strategist, says Bush doesn't have to persuade conservative voters he's truly a tax cutter...
...The "Iowa speech" he and his aides have been working on for months must be hefty...
...Why...
...If they don't like it, that's my fate...
...Their view is simple: With Bush as the presidential nominee in 2000, they'll keep control of the House...
...As governor, Bush tapped the Christian prison program headed by Charles Colson to work with inmates...
...Compassionate conservatism, after all, is a notion not for attracting conservatives and Republicans but for reaching beyond the GOP base to general-election voters...
...These comments, while vague, are at the core of Bush's version of compassionate conservatism...
...This is smaller than the $2.6 billion he'd requested, but still "the biggest tax cut in Texas history...
...His speeches will be, as the Bush euphemism goes, "thematic...
...So all that's left for Bush is to fashion a case for compassionate conservatism...
...There's certainly a political rationale for doing so...
...THE ANOINTED ONE George W Bush—the Man, the Plan, the Moment of Truth By Fred Barnes Austin, Texas Republicans who've waited impatiently for months to crown Texas governor George W. Bush as their presidential nominee in 2000 may be in for a surprise...
...For now, with Bush positioned as the savior of the party in 2000, they'll probably acquiesce...
...What's his plan...
...Elizabeth Dole is no friend...
...I'll talk about rallying the armies of compassion and about ushering in the responsibility era," Bush told me...
...On foreign policy, however, Bush may get specific late this summer...
...It's more an emotion or an inclination—and a very appealing campaign slogan...
...Even with Newt Gingrich replaced by Denny Hastert as House speaker, congressional Republicans are not a lovable group...
...Indeed, he admits his proposal came closer to passing in 1995 than it did this year...
...And he intends to avoid specifics as much as possible...
...Nonetheless, he says, "it's an important part of the menu of opportunity...
...And Bush says he's "not uncomfortable with that at all...
...legislature...
...Since the early 90s, Bush said, "China has taken a much more aggressive posture as an emerging nuclear power, someone with whom we are going to have to be very strong in our relationship...
...Can he lead...
...It had better be a compelling one...
...Bush says he wants to answer three questions for voters this summer...
...Bush has yet to set foot outside Texas as a candidate, but some Republicans talk of a GOP "wave" he might set off, lifting Republican candidates at all levels...
...As a matter of fact, I like the assignment...
...Though Bush and his aides are loath to admit it, his focus on compassionate conservatism has a Clin-tonesque quality...
...He came up with a slew of small government programs and presidential orders that dealt mostly with problems stressed by conservatives...
...And the Bush and DeLay camps are closely allied...
...Bush will add comments for local consumption and tack on a new twist or idea or proposal to give the press a fresh angle for their daily stories...
...Even before starting to campaign, he's begun addressing foreign issues, notably China...
...After Iowa, the speech becomes his basic text for the summer, as he tours the other early-primary states—New Hampshire, South Carolina, California, Michigan, Virginia, Washington, Montana, Connecticut, New Jersey...
...The result: He captured centrist and independent voters...
...He'll appear at a faith-based social program in Iowa on June 12, but that's part of his emphasis on compassionate conservatism, not conservatism per se...
...Oddly enough, it's House Republicans, more than any other conservative or GOP bloc, who have freed Bush to emphasize compassionate conser-vatism—or anything else that pops into his mind, for that matter...
...But first things first, and I've got to win the primary...
...I understand the pacing of a campaign pretty well...
...Bush sees vouchers as a way to increase demand for better schools, and he favors charter schools to increase the supply of good schools...
...He didn't amplify, leaving that for the Iowa speech...
...But the thrust of the speech—roughly 90 percent of the text—won't change...
...Clinton distanced himself from the left, and implicit in Bush's approach is that he's different from the Gingrich Republicans who took over Congress in 1994...
...School choice is another compassionate-conservative theme, but Bush may approach it gingerly, since his voucher plan was rejected by the Texas Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...But he did promise to set a high-minded tone in the campaign...
...But everyone knows that's a fiction...
...I would treat China warily...
...But Bush says he'll spell it out "on my time...
...Engagement equals strategic partnership...
...Engagement is too accepting...
...One of Bush's chief supporters is House Republican whip Tom DeLay, the man Democrats hope to demonize in the public's mind as the new Gingrich...
...Rove says he asked around, and no one has a good solution for dealing with expectations...
...Nevertheless, Bush said China should be granted MFN trade status again and admitted to the World Trade Organization...
...It may seem like a short campaign, but I think I've got ample time to discuss different issues on my timetable...
...Polls putting Bush far ahead of Vice President Al Gore, a flood of endorsements by Republican elected officials, sky-high fund-raising numbers—these, too, have given Bush the freedom to fashion a campaign based on compassionate conservatism...
...Rove offers two historic tests for determining who the candidate will be...
...Bush, understandably, does not want to be identified as an extension of them...
...What's likely to surprise Republicans—and maybe the press, Democrats, and everyone else as well—is the kind of presidential campaign he intends to run...
...Technically, he's still "exploring" a presidential run, not officially starting one...
...First, the candidate of the Republican establishment—governors, senators, House members, state legislators, party leaders—wins the nomination...
...Dan Quayle can't win...
...That would be totally historic, a Republican president and a Republican Congress...
...What he means is: We'll swallow whatever agenda Bush comes up with...
...Bush will need more examples, impressive ones...
...And Bush is the establishment candidate...
...In his early campaigning, he says he "wants people to know my heart...
...I have this sense of freedom about this race...
...That won't be easy...
...For Bush, at least now, social policy is paramount, economic and foreign policy secondary...
...He said he'd "elevate the dialogue" and be a uniter, not a divider...
...They won't get quite the candidate they expect when Bush finally leaves Texas on June 12 to visit Iowa and New Hampshire...
...It's risky because compassionate conservatism so far lacks real substance as a political idea...
...The Bush line is that there's only one problem looming for his candidacy: high expectations...
...Bush's job is to flesh it out with an urgent national agenda...
...They're desperate for Bush to emerge as the party's face, and they have no desire to impose an agenda on him...
...Hastert says the ideas and philosophy and priorities of congressional Republicans and the nominee should be in close alignment...
...He's proved it...
...So his emphasis over the summer will be on why he's a "compassionate conservative" and what that means for the country if he's elected...
...That again is Bush...
...Steve Forbes has alienated congressional Republicans by constantly attacking them...
...Second, a candidate who consistently leads his GOP rivals by 10 points or more the year before the primaries wins...
...Both suggest Bush has the nomination in hand...
...Normally restrained, Coverdell gets almost giddy appraising Bush: "If he ignites, which he has the potential of doing, he does have a Reaganesque coattail...
...I have a different view...
...I'll use Texas examples like Prison Fellowship...
...If Bush isn't the nominee, one House Republican says the result will be "chaos...
...It amounts to "triangulation," a clever way to reconcile opposites...
...As a governor, he has no foreign policy experience, for which he needs to compensate by delivering serious speeches on the subject...
...His record as governor this year also plays an important role, particularly the $1.8 billion tax cut he wheedled out of the legislature...
...Who's the man...
...Originally, another DeLay pal, Hastert, had been slated to be the surrogate, but that was scrapped when Hastert became speaker...
...His point is that prosperity alone doesn't ensure a country that's socially and spiritually healthy, and that his heart is in the right place (with the poor, downtrodden, etc...
...Hundreds of journalists will gather in Des Moines on June 12 to hear him deliver it, and they'll render an instant verdict on its weightiness...
...This is a risky tack, but not because conservative GOP audiences may prefer to hear about other issues...
...There's no question that 2000 is different from '91," he said...
...But instead of DeLay himself, a surrogate—deputy whip Roy Blunt of Missouri—was included on Bush's presidential exploratory committee...
Vol. 4 • June 1999 • No. 37
