THE STEALTH FRONT-RUNNER
BARNES, FRED
THE STEALTH FRONT-RUNNER by Fred Barnes Texas governor George W. Bush and his aides think there are only two ways he can lose the Republican presidential nomination. One is if Steve Forbes spends...
...And rank-and-file Republicans may take offense that Bush doesn't participate in candidate forums and the Ames event—that is, the places where they go to see and hear the candidates...
...Bush will be unmistakably campaigning for the nomination...
...The Bush team, however, isn't too worried, believing that as front-runner, Bush is free to run his campaign in his own time frame and in his own way...
...Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...His campaign may lack the raw, fighting edge that will be indispensable once the key primaries and caucuses begin...
...But George W. Bush is no Reagan...
...Mike Foster to insure he gets the bulk of the Louisiana delegates...
...Bush, though, has decided there's nothing to gain by playing in Ames...
...In theory, all this makes sense...
...But by passing on all these contests, Bush does give up something: edge...
...My guess is Bush will be zinged harshly for not giving the press, whose favor he craves, what it wants...
...It doesn't guarantee you'll beat the Democratic nominee to win the White House...
...It did for Dole in 1995, when he finished in a near-tie with Sen...
...Otherwise, he'll enter the fray, after finally announcing his candidacy in the fall, with only a few months left before the primaries and caucuses begin...
...If he wins, he'll be faulted for not winning by a big enough margin...
...He'll also spend time in other states with early primaries or caucuses...
...In short, he's adopted a passive strategy, common among front-runners, that has a certain logic to it...
...For one thing, the strategy may be too cute, and voters may resent it...
...If he stumbles badly, there may not be time to recover...
...Once the Texas legislature adjourns on May 31, Bush does plan to speak around the country, pursuing what one aide called "a pretty aggressive schedule": Appear in Iowa on June 12, move on to New Hampshire for two days, and then fly to South Carolina...
...He's captured the support of much of the party establishment in Washington and across the country...
...Getting an early taste of it could be helpful...
...In fact, he's already consulting with congressional Republicans on, as Blunt puts it, "an election strategy and a governing strategy...
...He's been served well so far by staying aloof from other Republican presidential contenders...
...What he's doing is certainly working," says House deputy whip Roy Blunt of Missouri, a Bush backer...
...He's been slow in organizing in Iowa, but by participating in the straw vote, he could begin putting together a strong state organization for the caucuses next February...
...He may argue otherwise, insisting he's still exploring whether to run, hasn't announced, and thus isn't ready to mix it up with his Republican foes...
...At best, he'll deliver serious speeches on foreign and defense policy designed to shore up his lack of experience in those areas...
...If he loses, he'll be embarrassed...
...Doesn't sound too exciting, does it...
...The biggest problem in Bush's bid to create a safe environment for his campaign is that he won't test himself as a candidate and improve where improvement is needed...
...This means he won't appear with any of his GOP opponents at candidate forums, won't participate in the Republican presidential straw vote in Ames, Iowa, on August 14, and won't give speeches outlining his policy positions in detail...
...Yes, Reagan recovered and went on to win the presidency...
...Reagan decided to skip the big televised debate a few weeks before the Iowa caucuses, and he paid for it by losing the caucuses...
...Being seen as the inevitable GOP nominee the year before, as Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush, and Dole were, usually means you win the nomination...
...A lot may be needed...
...Bush's three campaigns—for the House in 1978, for governor in 1994 and 1998—have hardly prepared him for the pressure he'll face as the front-running GOP presidential candidate...
...By skipping the Ames straw vote, Bush will avoid a potential bump in the road...
...Phil Gramm of Texas...
...Bush is ahead of his GOP rivals and likeliest Democratic foe, Vice President Al Gore, by substantial margins in polls...
...He's avoiding another in Florida, where his brother, Gov...
...so, since things are going well, why change the game plan...
...Still, serious proposals and policies are what's expected of serious presidential candidates...
...Naturally, Bush is eager to avoid blowing his lead, so he's decided to prolong his non-candidacy through the summer and put off a formal announcement until the fall...
...When Bush speaks outside Texas during June, July, and August, he'll spell out why he's (considering) running for president, what his principles and priorities are, and how he judges his own fitness for the presidency...
...The Republican front-runner four years ago, Bob Dole, spent $1 million on Florida's candidate forum and still barely won...
...One is if Steve Forbes spends millions more than any other candidate and emerges as a serious challenger...
...But that won't fool anyone, nor will it satisfy the other candidates and the press...
...Jeb Bush, has called off the straw vote...
...Specifics...
...The other is if Bush screws up as a candidate...
...Oh, it's not time yet, his aides will say, for him to get into detailed proposals or policy statements...
...Also, the straw vote, if it goes poorly for Bush, might provide a warning sign...
...Bush is where Ronald Reagan was in 1979 and early 1980, a front-runner wary of tangling with his rivals for the nomination...
...He'll skip them and rely instead on Gov...
...Far from it...
...And Bush has dealt, he hopes, with another pre-Iowa hazard, the Louisiana caucuses in February 2000...
Vol. 4 • May 1999 • No. 33
