MCCAIN'S MOMENT
BARNES, FRED
MCCAIN'S MOMENT by Fred Barnes YOU PROBABLY MISSED the first primary in the 2000 Republican presidential race, but Sen. John McCain won it. So says Vin Weber, the former GOP congressman from...
...McCain may not have been the catalyst, but he certainly was out front, leading, not following...
...On April 2, he was a guest on all three network morning shows...
...Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...Anyway, McCain has looked more presidential than the president—far more...
...He's not really campaigning...
...No, it was the "first quarter" in the fight for the presidential nomination that McCain just won, says Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager...
...It's mostly liberals in the media like Al Hunt of the Wall Street Journal...
...Will the primary voters lapse back into apathy about foreign affairs and national security...
...Suppose this gets settled within two months," he says...
...Yes, there's a fourth thing that's also important here...
...It's liberals who are thrilled, and they won't be participating in the Republican primaries next year...
...But he's not going to be stressing those issues much when the primaries grow near...
...He appeared on eight separate shows on April 5, chatting with Larry King, Geraldo, Ollie North, and Forrest Sawyer (on Nightline), among others...
...So he voted for the resolution—which 38 GOP senators opposed—authorizing the president to use military force against Slobodan Milosevic...
...Two contrasts are worth noting, between McCain and Clinton, and McCain and Bush...
...To be more specific about McCain, he's shown three things in the debate over Kosovo that are bound to help him as a candidate...
...McCain is the strongest Republican voice on Kosovo, but let's not get carried away...
...The next morning, he did Imus...
...It's really unfair to contrast McCain with Bush...
...Finally, on April 8, he said this: "I define the mission as to restoring Kosovo, so Kosovoians can move back in, and at the same time teach Mr...
...From the start, McCain realized the folly of not backing the president in war...
...His first statement said Clinton should use force "decisively and, of course, successfully...
...It was 5 a.m...
...Besides, the race isn't supposed to have begun in earnest yet...
...His poll numbers haven't jumped, but he's made a strong impression on the folks who matter now, eight months before the first caucus or primary...
...For all McCain's boldness on Kosovo, most Republicans don't agree with his interventionist, pro-bombing, pro-ground troops position...
...As governor of Texas, Bush is dealing with state matters until the legislature shuts down May 31...
...But he hasn't demonstrated that yet...
...Once Bush starts campaigning outside Texas on June 12, he may prove he can play the game nationally too...
...So says Vin Weber, the former GOP congressman from Minnesota and a McCain adviser...
...Two, he knows how to seize control of an issue and run with it...
...On April 6, he spent the late afternoon and evening on TV shows, telephoning print reporters during the breaks...
...McCain thinks they're likely to...
...for him in Phoenix...
...Criticized for being vague, Bush defended his statement as "measured" and "good...
...I suspect now they've concluded McCain is serious and has the ability to perform under pressure as a national candidate...
...This is mainly an elite group of Washington politicians, lobbyists, consultants, and journalists, plus party activists around the country...
...No, says Greg Stevens, McCain's media consultant, it was a "contest" that "contrasted" McCain with the other candidates, especially Texas governor George W. Bush, the GOP front-runner...
...McCain is more comfortable talking about foreign policy and war than Clinton is...
...Having voted to convict on both articles of impeachment, McCain is not soft on Clinton...
...Perhaps having fought in the last big war, Vietnam, gives McCain an air of confidence, while having ducked that war and then lied about it makes Clinton seem awkward and unsure...
...He'll have no problem keeping up in the primaries...
...Over a week's time in early April, Bush moved in fits and starts toward McCain's position...
...Defying public opinion and conventional wisdom, McCain insisted winning must be the goal, and ground troops would be needed unless Milosevic acquiesced...
...I cannot remember a single instance when an American president allowed two ultimatums to be ignored by an inferior power without responding as we threatened we would respond," he said March 23 on the Senate floor...
...Milosevic that NATO and its ally, the United States, will not tolerate genocide...
...No, says media consultant Mike Murphy, it was a battle for favorable "buzz" in the political community...
...Instead, his topics will be tax cuts, deep spending reductions, a military buildup, and curbs on abortion...
...He benefits now from what Washington Post columnist Mary McGrory calls "liberal infatuation" with him...
...They love McCain's tobacco bill and his campaign finance reform legislation and support for bombing Serbia...
...Murphy doesn't work for McCain, but talks to him occasionally and certainly likes him...
...Anyone who watched McCain talk about Kosovo and then listened to Bush could see that McCain is cruising, Bush is stumbling...
...Since then, public opinion has shifted in favor of land troops...
...And three, he's tireless, having done more TV, radio, and print interviews in a shorter span of time than anyone in human history...
...it's over...
...Not a bad tradeoff...
...Though the Republican race hasn't been transformed, McCain's presidential bid has gotten a boost...
...McCain campaigns like Clinton—incessantly...
...This will result in worse press coverage, but more support from Republicans...
...McCain, of course, won, planting "a seed from which a great oak can grow...
...But he also pointed to Clinton's shortcomings...
...His campaign team thinks it's already a two-person race, McCain versus Bush, but they're dreaming...
...Each time, he sounded more like McCain...
...Sorry, Governor, but politics is unfair, and campaigns wait for no candidate to get ready...
...One, he can lead on a president-sized issue and pull at least a few other leaders along with him...
...Even McCain is dubious of how much he's gained from all the visibility and good press on Kosovo...
...In an interview several days later with Dan Balz of the Washington Post, Bush revised it, saying ground troops would be fine so long as there's "a strong commitment to win" and "a clear exit strategy...
...unfair to Bush, that is...
...Many of these folks thought his candidacy was a lark...
...By then, his appeal may have narrowed...
...McCain won, naturally...
Vol. 4 • April 1999 • No. 29
