THE HEAVYWEIGHT
BARNES, FRED
The Heavyweight George W. Bush, Presidential Contender By Fred Barnes Austin, Texas George W. Bush, the Republican governor of Texas, loves nicknames. Chief of staff Joe Albaugh, a large man...
...The result: He's neutralized the liberal Austin establishment and the media, won over many Democrats, and made deep inroads into a large and once solidly Democratic constituency in Texas— Hispanics...
...My father] was raised in Greenwich, Connecticut...
...He's looser, louder, more casual than his father...
...And so on...
...Cultural conservatism alone won't carry Bush through a national campaign...
...More money for the military, particularly for missile defense...
...He thinks Gary Bauer is a twerp, but respects John Ashcroft...
...Without sharper issues, he may come off as Howard Baker reincarnated...
...He couldn't figure out why Weld would give up a good job as governor of Massachusetts to serve in the Clinton administration...
...Still, there are national issues he's prepared to tout when the time comes: Sweeping Social Security reform...
...All that helps, but only a little...
...He went on about abstinence...
...At one point, he asked his father to fire Darman and treasury secretary Nick Brady, according to aides...
...I asked about his policy toward China...
...Staying above the fray makes Bush look larger than any of these guys...
...There, he got to know two former aides to President Bush, Fred McClure and David Bates, and was introduced to George W., the governor...
...He likes Dan Quayle, but regards him as tarnished, and he believes Lamar Alexander's time has passed...
...All he'd say is the Clinton administration has wrongly "jettisoned Taiwan...
...When I spent a day with Bush in late August as he traveled to small towns near the Gulf coast, I was struck by how many Democratic officials embraced him enthusiastically...
...Why aren't you doing your homework?," he cracked to one teenage boy...
...Mildly conservative, he relied on his prior political success, his prestige in Washington, and his many power relationships inside the Beltway...
...Bush Sr...
...He didn't seem to know what I was talking about...
...But influence in Washington and the notion that Baker could defeat any Democrat didn't fly with Republican primary voters...
...That would represent a major political breakthrough...
...Since then, Bush has repeatedly called on Martin for advice and help...
...I just love the guy," Martin says...
...I feel we ought to educate immigrant children," he says...
...But when I asked Bush to be more specific, he declined...
...And the governor's senior political adviser, Karl Rove, is "Turd Blossom...
...I've never seen a working Republican politician as good as this...
...no longer the punk son of the president, used by his dad for the dirty job of informing John Sununu he was fired as White House chief of staff in 1991...
...Bush teased the press by announcing a fifth theme—pay attention to the other four...
...Besides, "not showing much leg is useful to us," a Bush adviser says...
...He's not a conventional social conservative...
...He's against punishing children of illegal aliens, as Proposition 187 requires in California...
...Bush chatted amiably with Martin for several minutes...
...As I and many other Texans will testify, he has a message and approach and generational appeal that is causing a lot of Democrats to add the adjective 'former'" to their party affiliation...
...Bush was taken with David Horowitz's brutal critique of the '60s, Destructive Generation, and invited Horowitz to Austin for a talk last November...
...Jesse Helms, who was blocking the nomination...
...One adviser suggested teachers be allowed to waive the requirement for students who failed but warranted promotion anyway...
...Bush's greatest achievement, potentially, is turning Hispanics into Republicans...
...I asked the governor to confirm this...
...Education is to the state what national defense is to the national government...
...McKinnon produced the TV spots for Ann Richards in 1990 when she defeated Republican Clayton Williams...
...He won 54 percent to 46 percent...
...What followed was even more impressive...
...His only appearance at a presidential cattle show, in Indianapolis a year ago, was panned by the press...
...Pauken lost...
...Reporters doggedly tried to get him off his four designated campaign themes (education, welfare, crime, and litigation reform...
...Somehow, he got several groups of a dozen or more young people to cluster together...
...People will find I'm probably more conservative than he is," Bush says...
...Bush appeared not to mind...
...Since he entered the race against Democratic governor Ann Richards in 1993, Bush has proved three things about himself: He can win, he can govern as a moderate conservative, and he can broaden the Republican base...
...He was miffed when Steve Forbes endorsed Tom Pauken, his least favorite Texas Republican, for state attorney gen-eral—and didn't check first with the man at the head of the ticket, him...
...He's expected to announce for president next spring...
...George W. thinks Darman, as budget chief, had a ruinous impact on the Bush presidency...
...Not that he's announced one...
...NOT THAT HE'S ANNOUNCEd ONE...
...For now, he's stumping all-out for reelection and, as of Labor Day, won't appear outside Texas...
...Chief of staff Joe Albaugh, a large man with a flattop, is "Big Country...
...None came...
...Mauro is Bush's Democratic opponent for governor...
...They collected a quick $1 million...
...It's just not an exciting message...
...If the ex-president is every woman's first husband, Paul Burka of Texas Monthly wrote, "then George W. is the wild boyfriend every woman dated in her youth...
...His stump speech stresses limited government, the state's role in education, and the need for a broad cultural shift in America back to traditional values...
...He went to Andover, Yale, and Harvard Business School, but says his upbringing did more to shape him...
...regarded public service as a civic duty...
...FOR ALL HIS PROWESS, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS ABILITY TO RUN A NATIONAL CAMPAIGN...
...He plays politics at a high level of proficiency, more like ex-secretary of state James Baker than his own lather, the former president...
...And he began wooing Democrats...
...He did so despite being godfather to Garry Mauro's child...
...Bush has him eating out of his hands," says a Democrat...
...And success has spawned a new reputation...
...Then, in May, Bush went to Hollywood and addressed 300 entertainment industry leaders before Horowitz's Wednesday Morning Club...
...And not just in cities...
...Bush also grabbed a media consultant, Mark Mc-Kinnon, from Democratic ranks...
...He doesn't mention abortion, homosexuality, or school prayer...
...On taxes and limiting government, he sounds semi-Reaganesque...
...He pushed his program through the still-Democratic legislature, notably tort reform and expansion of local control of schools...
...In Beeville, Mayor Kenneth Chesshir said, "I'm for him 100 percent...
...Bush never considered it...
...An overall lowering of the tax burden...
...Yet there was no palpable backlash in the audience...
...I asked Bush if he sees himself as a "national greatness" conservative who favors bold government projects, as proclaimed by Peter Beinart in the New Republic...
...English-only appeals infuriate him...
...There's "honor, not shame," in sexual abstinence, he says...
...This is my homework," the young man said...
...Mexico is not our enemy...
...Bush and his aides insist he is...
...In calm times, his reputation as a winner in Texas might be enough...
...There was more to the encounter with Martin than bonhomie...
...He's managed this without proposing a dazzling array of programs or, as conservatives would prefer, a dazzling array of program cuts...
...For all Bush's political prowess, there are three big questions about his ability to run a successful national campaign...
...Says Horowitz: "This shows how good [Bush] is at presenting difficult themes...
...Though he says Ronald Reagan is his political role model, George W., like his dad, is not an ideological person...
...On his second day in office, Bush irritated Bullock by blabbing to reporters about an issue they were supposed to discuss privately...
...He wants the legislature to ban "social promotions" next year: If kids fail a state-run test certifying the ability to read by the third grade, they won't be moved up to the fourth grade just to keep them with their age group...
...In fact, Bush and his parents found time to conduct a day of Texas fund-raisers for Jeb, who's running for governor in Florida...
...Baker was Senate GOP leader when he sought the Republican presidential nomination in 1980...
...I've seen the culture change once in my lifetime," says Bush, who is 52...
...Younger brother Jeb is "Jebbie...
...And he's riding the crest of a GOP wave in Texas that appears to be still growing...
...Bush has a slight edge over Gore in recent polls...
...He speaks workable Spanish, attends Hispanic events, and is often photographed with Hispanic kids...
...I was disarmed completely," he says...
...But there's "a legitimate role" for state governments in education...
...Columnist Richard Reeves wrote a favorable review of the speech...
...And the "ravages" of that shift toward permissiveness and hedonism are everywhere...
...The centerpiece of his governorship in 1997 and 1998 was a complicated tax package that not only failed igno-miniously in the legislature but was fervently opposed by then-state Republican chairman Tom Pauken and the small-business community...
...Labels are labels and results are results...
...His closest call occurred when he shot a deer out of season...
...He wouldn't, but he didn't deny it either...
...Bush said no...
...For now, Bush shies away from specific national issues...
...He's Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...But all of his speeches feature a conservative rap on the culture...
...Martin is a well-known Democrat and influential lobbyist...
...Bush got in touch with Martin shortly after arriving in Austin in 1995 as the freshly elected governor, and the two hit it off...
...Your heritage doesn't matter.'" And he's willing to tolerate bilingual education, so long as English is taught...
...Policies that tend to wall Mexico off, I oppose," he says...
...Now, Martin is a warm friend and ally of Bush...
...What has worked is Bush's willingness to veer sharply from the Republican line...
...The provocative part of Bush's spiel is his cultural conservatism...
...You don't want to know the reason for that one...
...He's against stationing troops on the border to impede drug smugglers...
...Last November, after announcing he wouldn't run again, Bullock endorsed Bush for reelection—and for any higher office Bush might seek...
...They failed...
...He's comfortable in his own skin...
...Another sign of Bush's conservatism is his refusal last year to help William Weld win confirmation as ambassador to Mexico...
...After his standard speech, about 15 minutes long, George W. loves to wade into crowds, chat, trade quips, have his picture taken, sign autographs— as Clinton does, actually...
...I asked if he thinks Roe v. Wade should be overturned...
...Luckily for Bush, he got a $1 billion cut in property taxes as consolation...
...He dodged the question, saying he's a committed pro-lifer but that the country won't be ready to ban abortions until the culture changes...
...Our motto is, If government doesn't meet, it can't hurt you," he adds...
...I think Bush has one...
...His view of his role in government is different, too...
...As Bush spoke, "I said this is too conservative for a Hollywood crowd," Horowitz recalls...
...Heaven knows, he's trying...
...I've raised all my money," Bush boasted to me...
...He doesn't relish spending time with the other candidates...
...And should he run for president, aides claim Richard Darman, loathed by conservatives, won't be on the Bush team...
...Yet Bush has boycotted national TV talk shows, and he has neither created an organization nor campaigned (except for a dozen speeches, mostly on behalf of fellow GOP governors...
...I'm a westerner...
...Last week, he kicked off his reelection campaign by proposing to reduce taxes by $2.5 billion...
...He's become the GOP front-runner while not running...
...In Aransas, he worked his way through a crowd of roughly 400 in a way that almost seemed organized (but wasn't...
...The Cato Institute, in its rating of governors, called him "admirably tightfist-ed" for holding annual increases in state spending to 2 percent...
...Because he'd run only once before, narrowly losing a 1978 race for a House seat from west Texas, the Richards camp anticipated gaffes...
...His goal in 1998 is 40 percent...
...The Texas legislature meets only 140 days every two years, he notes...
...By the end of his first stop at a Gulf coast town on August 27, sweat had seeped through the back of his suit coat...
...Amassing a $21 million war chest for his reelection campaign was a snap...
...His press secretary, Karen Hughes, is "The High Prophet," a play on her maiden name, Parfitt, and her prominent role in a Presbyterian church in Austin...
...So Bush talks up "right choices" for teenagers: stay in school, no drugs or alcohol, no sex before marriage...
...It says to Hispanic people, 'Me, not you...
...Other Democrats took Bullock's cue...
...George W. views it as a way to accomplish things...
...Then he slipped in the middle and a picture was taken...
...He's a toucher, a patter, a slapper, a hugger...
...True, Bush has special advantages...
...What really matters, though, is whether Bush is more conservative than his father...
...He plays populist to his father's patrician...
...In 1994, he got 24 percent of the Hispanic vote...
...Lesson learned," he told Bullock...
...Government can't prompt a new swing back to old values, but leaders can help...
...If the chance he'll run for president later is bothersome, he says, Texans should factor that in when they vote for governor on November 3. Oh, yes, the three questions: Is George W. different from his father...
...Now he's a virtuoso politician, the legitimate front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination in 2000, and the Republican most likely to defeat Vice President Al Gore...
...That's his reputation at least...
...Democrats clamored to have their picture taken with Bush...
...Likewise, Bush's political success is based heavily on his productive ties in Austin...
...He's conservative by instinct...
...Weld pleaded with Bush to intervene with Sen...
...Bullock was snowed...
...Bush once high-fived a reporter who showed up to interview him...
...Will his political style, a hit in Austin, transfer to the national stage...
...He benefits as well from prosperity that makes it easier for incumbents to govern and, in his case, maintain extraordinary popularity (70 percent approval...
...Later, he soured on electoral politics and joined Jack Martin's lobbying firm, Public Strategies...
...In Sinton, home of the "World Championship Rattlesnake Races," Sheriff Leroy Moody said, "I'm a Democrat, but I don't have any problem saying I'm for him...
...Young men who father children and walk away don't meet "the definition of manliness...
...He made the most of his weekly meetings with lieutenant governor Bob Bullock, the most powerful Democrat in Texas...
...It's a good thing it wasn't deer season or I might have shot a cow," Bush joked, and the matter died...
...And their relationship, plus hundreds like it that Bush has fostered, are at the heart of his success in Texas...
...He's comfortable with the issues...
...He doesn't want Texas voters to conclude he's using reelection as governor as a stepping stone...
...Maybe that's because he is...
...He flopped...
...Temperamentally, he's not his father's son...
...Bush apologized...
...playing both sides of the political game, running for office and governing...
...I was raised in Midland, Texas...
...El Paso mayor Carlos Ramirez backed Bush, as did ex-Houston mayor Bob Lanier and 105 Democratic officeholders...
...Bush made sure nothing leaked to the press from their private sessions...
...Richards, ever popular and favored to win, outspent him ($17 million to $14 million) and gave cleverer speeches...
...So it wasn't out of character one recent morning for Bush to shout, "MARTINI!," across the private air terminal in Austin when he spotted Jack Martin...
...Bush is a disciplined campaigner...
...Question two: the message...
...Does he have a message...
...For years, he was Democratic senator Lloyd Bentsen's top political hand in the state, the fellow every Democratic presidential candidate had to consult before going after Texas votes...
...But should the economy tank and instability around the world increase, voters might respond to a bolder candidate, as they did to Reagan in 1980...
...The key to his success is a blunt but appealing personality, a will to be liked, and breathtaking skill at BUSH HAS PROVED THREE THINGS: HE CAN WIN, HE CAN GOVERN AS A MODERATE CONSERVATIVE, AND HE CAN BROADEN THE GOP BASE...
...The Bush name helps, especially with Texans...
...He's pro-Mexico and pro-immigrant, insisting a prosperous Mexico is critical to American stability...
...But the time isn't yet...
...His mantra this fall is that there are only two ways to run, 100 percent or unopposed...
...He refused to attack Richards personally, and when she zinged his record as a businessman in a TV commercial, he deftly used that against her in a counter-ad...
Vol. 4 • September 1998 • No. 1
