WHAT THE GOP CAN REAP
BARNES, FRED
WHAT THE GOP CAN REAP by Fred Barnes THE DAY AFTER MONICA LEWINSKY turned state's evidence, eight Republican senators gathered for lunch at the Capitol. Most assumed the deepening white House...
...And the 1994 election was a GOP landslide...
...This is especially true of women, even more so of women over 60...
...Now it's happened, Beckel says...
...Extensive polling and intricate cross-tabula-tions—not speculation or guesswork—have uncovered the Republican edge...
...In Democratic precincts, Beckel says, "the irony is the good economy has lessened their interest in voting...
...A report from Starr is now likely this fall, and his staff has looked into making as much of it public as possible without jeopardizing grand-jury secrecy...
...But there was still uneasiness...
...congressional Republicans either, but they're ready to register a protest against Clinton on Election Day by voting against Democratic candidates...
...THE MOST MOTIVATED VOTERS ARE THOSE FURIOUS WITH CLINTON...
...Clinton's involvement with Monica Lewinsky "is the event that has confirmed everything these voters believe" about the president...
...Furthermore, the scandals put a cloud over Democratic campaigns...
...Those who answered 5050 and below were tossed out as probable non-voters, especially in an election with no presidential contest...
...Voters were asked to put themselves in one of five categories: certain to vote, likely to, 5050, unlikely, or won't vote...
...Simply because the Clinton scandals have already taken their toll...
...With that, "the case would probably be closed," says DiVall...
...Republicans captured the House, the Senate, and a dozen new governorships...
...The scandals "always had the potential of not being just a Clinton problem but a party problem...
...Then "the chances of seeing a dramatic drop in President Clinton's popularity and also in Democratic prospects" would be "pretty high...
...They aren't happy with POLLSTERS HAYE DETECTED A CLEAR GOP TILT GOING INTO ELECTION SEASON...
...Three types of precincts were studied: reliable Democratic ones, reliable Republican ones, and "persuadable" or swing precincts...
...Otherwise, Clinton could outma-neuver them by admitting he's done wrong, asking the American people for forgiveness, and vowing to devote his final years to important issues facing America...
...Yet despite the anticipation, the report probably won't be pivotal in the campaign...
...Voters, she insists, are more concerned about Clinton's personal behavior than is generally believed...
...John Morgan, the Republican analyst who accurately predicted the 1994 sweep, believes distaste for Clinton in once-Democratic rural areas is more intense today than ever...
...I'm concluding the intensity factor of the negatives on Clinton is higher now than it was in '94...
...There was a blip up in '94 in those [Republican] districts," Beckel says...
...The slowing economy or a dip in national confidence could trigger concerns about Clinton's ability to offer strong (and moral) leadership, says Secrest...
...But they've been voting in disproportionate numbers, mostly because of their loathing of Clinton...
...Democratic and Republican strategists have detected a clear GOP tilt, based largely on expected turnout this fall...
...That won't be repeated, Beckel says, but only because most Democratic incumbents are in safe seats...
...It's harder for Democrats to make the case you need to elect a Democratic Congress," DiVall says...
...Beckel's findings gibe with those of some, but not all, pollsters and strategists active in congressional campaigns...
...People who strongly disapprove of Clinton are only 25 percent to 35 percent of the population, according to Beckel...
...Strong anti-Clinton sentiments "have deepened, become more negative, and turned to anger," Beckel says...
...Morgan is unsure how much the scandals will ultimately help Republicans...
...The Starr report would have to be truly explosive—new revelations, ripe details, hard evidence— to cause such an eruption...
...No, the senator said, it wouldn't produce "a Nixonian collapse"— just a drop in Clinton's approval rating from 60 percent to 40 percent, enough to assure Republican pickups...
...Alan Secrest, a Democratic pollster working in two dozen House races, says he hasn't detected fallout in congressional races from the Clinton scandals...
...You've got a content electorate except for people who hate Bill Clinton...
...Democratic voters...
...Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD and co-host of The Beltway Boys on the Fox News Channel...
...If Clinton's conduct "really erupts" as the dominant issue this fall, Republicans could win more than 30 House seats and a half-dozen in the Senate, he says...
...The most motivated voters, those all but certain to go to the polls, are the ones furious with Clinton...
...Bob Beckel, who managed Walter Mondale's presidential campaign in 1984, and a group of Democratic researchers examined hundreds of key precincts across the country this summer...
...Voters increasingly have qualms about turning Washington over to Democrats led by a scandal-plagued president...
...The "least engaged voters" were found in the swing precincts, where low turnout is expected...
...Republican pollster Linda DiVall says the Clinton scandals help the GOP "substantially, in terms of giving us a turnout advantage...
...Good economic times have made them content and thus less motivated to vote...
...That's not likely...
...if Starr doesn't release some or all of the report, the House Judiciary Committee intends to...
...Plus, "the Clinton scandals are taking it into the suburbs...
...And there's a potential problem for Republicans in relying on the report and the scandal itself in the campaign...
...A report would put "everything Starr has in one place" and attract enormous attention...
...Angry people vote...
...Should Republicans "over-moralize" in attacking Clinton, they'll succeed chiefly in rousing Democrats to vote, Beckel says...
...They've "become a party problem...
...Secrest characterizes this as "a viable alternative theory" about turnout in November...
...Most assumed the deepening white House scandals would aid Republicans in House and Senate races this fall...
...And even a stinging report might not resurrect it...
...what's needed to assure GOP success, said one of the senators later, is a comprehensive report from independent counsel Kenneth Starr on the Clinton scandals...
...But Democrats are "whistling past the graveyard" if they assume there won't be an impact...
...DiVall argues Republicans still need to lay out an agenda...
...Beckel's research was aimed at determining who will actually vote this fall...
Vol. 3 • August 1998 • No. 46
