Suharto Darkness

...In the absence of administration leadership on Indonesia, Congress will step in...

...Deputy assistant secretary Campbell's dim view of U.S...

...So far, no major Clinton-administration official has emerged to lead a push for a U.S...

...In Cambodia, it quickly acquiesced to Hun Sen's power grab after the 1993 elections...

...Reform-minded members of the Indonesian military will respond more seriously to a U.S...

...It is hard to imagine circumstances under which Washington could have more leverage than it does now...

...According to the Los Angeles Times, Mondale was tapped for the mission because no single sitting official could represent the disparate views emanating from Treasury, the State Department, and the White House...

...The military remains the dominant institution in Indonesia...

...Despite all the coming and going, Indonesia continues to let its commitments to the IMF slide...

...While even longtime critics of the Suharto regime acknowledge some improvements in respect for human rights by the armed forces, they attribute the progress to outside pressure—including the congressional cutoff of IMET in 1993...

...In addition to Megawati, there is Abdurrahman Wahid, a revered leader of the most influential nongovernmental Muslim organization in Indonesia, Nahdlatul Ulama...

...As Adam Schwarz writes in A Nation in Waiting, "While the Indonesian military has worked hard to keep the communist bogeyman alive, . . . the argument has been threadbare for a long time and, with the ending of the Cold War and the collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe, it is approaching the point of farce...

...At a rigged party convention in Medan in northern Sumatra, the regime ousted Megawati, daughter of Indonesia's first post-independence leader, Sukarno...

...In China, the administration has pursued craven commercialism and waited for that "inevitable" democratic evolution...

...Over his objections, a ban was eventually imposed in 1997 after the junta launched a vicious campaign against the National League for Democracy and Aung San Suu Kyi...

...The first stage of the transition battle has been won by Suharto...

...Given a chance, they and others pushing the limits of tolerated dissent could indeed emerge as credible leaders...

...How else to explain Secretary Albright's testimony that "in all the problems of the Asian financial crisis, these people are our customers...

...policies or actions taken toward the Indonesian military will produce fundamental changes in the military's behavior...

...Although Campbell intended his remarks to justify IMET as a cost-effective program that brings incremental change, they actually point to an essential flaw in the administration's Indonesia policy...

...Neither Indonesia's military nor U.S...

...interest in economic development will trump its other American interests...

...If progress toward democracy is inexorable, there is no need to support pro-democracy activists...

...IMET has borne the brunt of congressional disapproval of Indonesia's human rights record, especially in East Timor, which Indonesia occupied in 1975...

...Suharto's defenders claim that without the strong hand of the military, Indonesia, with its over 13,000 islands and numerous ethnic groups, might erupt like Bosnia or break apart like the former Soviet Union...

...policy favoring a transition to democracy...

...Still, the administration is quick to claim that pressure doesn't work and that the United States has no influence over the Indonesian military...

...He unleashed a campaign against anyone capable of presenting an alternative to his rule and even resurrected the Communist threat...

...So far, though, the one option not represented in the administration's policy free-for-all is promoting a democratic transition...

...Endemic corruption is such that, according to Jeffrey A. Winters writing in the Far Eastern Economic Review, the World Bank office in Jakarta "admits that 30 percent of the money lent to Indonesia routinely disappears somewhere inside the government...

...Assuming the presidency for the seventh time, he has succeeded in resisting the IMF's prescriptions, installing his best friend, B. J. Habibie, as vice president and reportedly preparing to appoint cabinet members hostile to reform...

...If they are not doing well, they will cut the prices...

...We don't have a lot of leverage," a senior official told the New York Times...

...Next, the government stoked fears of a Communist resurgence, tagging a tiny radical Revolutionary Democratic party as Communist and charging its leaders and other prominent political and labor figures with subversion...

...The region's dictatorships, by contrast, are drawing exactly the message the administration has sent consistently over the past few years: that political freedom and economic development are separable and, at times during a country's development, incompatible...

...Exactly...

...was dispatched to deliver the latest administration entreaty to Suharto to please—please—keep his promises to the IMF to undertake reforms and dismantle his kids' and cronies' monopolies, which have made Indonesia one of the most corrupt regimes in the world...

...All the progress cited by the administration occurred after the cutoff— except that attributable to the commission investigating the Dili massacre, which in turn came only as a result of intense international pressure...

...But the Clinton administration has no policy for dealing with the end of the Suharto regime...

...Jakarta got the message anyway: Given the chance, the Clinton administration would make the sale in spite of Suharto's heavy-handed tactics, arbitrary arrests, and torture, and in spite of strong sentiment against the sale among Indonesian opposition figures and even some affiliated with the regime...

...And the administration refuses to acknowledge violations of the Sino-British Joint Declaration on Hong Kong that have enabled China to set up bogus election laws in Hong Kong through a puppet legislature...

...Indonesian politics is an elaborate nationwide charade, with the government party, Golkar, conceived as an instrument for extending the military's reach into the parliament, which it dominates...

...They are our competitors...

...he was sworn in last week...

...Asia's democrats, including South Korea's Kim Dae Jung and Hong Kong's Martin Lee, agree that the fundamental cause of the current trouble is, as Kim put it, the "placing of economic development ahead of democracy...

...For more than a year and a half, the Clinton administration has looked on while Suharto engineered his smooth accession to a seventh five-year term as president...

...During the Cold War, incremental improvement in the military might have been a significant corollary benefit to friendly U.S.-Indonesian military relations...

...That's what dictators do...

...Suharto Darkness By Ellen Bork For months now, the skies over Jakarta have been thick—not just with smoke from raging forest fires but also with the planes of Clinton administration and IMF officials...

...If, instead, the administration should begin to discuss the connection between Indonesia's sclerotic political system and its economic problems, to call for free elections and demonstrate support for the democratic opposition, that would be a hopeful sign...

...When PDI members loyal to Megawati occupied the party's headquarters in Jakarta and held a peaceful "free speech forum," the government sent mobs to storm the building and start riots, in which several people were killed...

...Americans have seen the end come for enough regimes around the world that they know what to expect...

...Finally, former vice president Walter Mondale Ellen Bork is senior professional staff member for East Asia and the Pacific of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee...

...Testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on September 18, 1996, assistant secretary of state Winston Lord supported "evolution toward a political system that is more responsive to the aspirations of its people for a larger voice in their future...

...Since the 1950s, similar programs have trained approximately 3,000 Indonesian military and civilian personnel...

...The Dili massacre of 1991, in which the Indonesian military killed about 50 Timorese and injured at least 100 others, prompted Congress to cut off IMET two years later, then to restore it for courses emphasizing civilian control of the military, military justice, and management...

...More important, the administration signaled its readiness for business as usual with Jakarta by proceeding toward the proposed sale of nine F-16 fighters...

...More calls like that from the Hill are likely from both sides of the aisle...

...In Burma, the administration bent over backwards to avoid implementing a statutory investment ban designed to kick in when repression by the military junta became severe...

...While China's foray into the South China Sea near the Natu-na gas fields has emerged as a concern, it hardly represents a reason for propping up Suharto...

...Certainly this was the message secretary of state Madeleine Albright sent to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on February 10 when she said, "I think the issue is that we need to . . . deal with him on the long run here...

...In Vietnam, it is rushing to extend trade benefits such as Overseas Private Investment Corporation and Export-Import Bank financing and is chomping at the bit to extend most-favored-nation status regardless of whether Vietnam releases religious prisoners or adopts democratic reforms...

...Suharto's failure to provide for a successor has been obvious for years...

...strategic thinkers believe Indonesia faces a major external threat, let alone a Communist one...

...President Clinton has telephoned Indonesia's President Suharto several times...

...Suharto is the problem," and, "Without political reform, the economic reform will go nowhere...

...officials and others routinely refer to his periodic reappointment as his "election...

...Wahid is an articulate advocate for secular democracy and tolerance of non-Muslims...

...Under the doctrine of "dual function" (dwifungsi) promulgated by Suharto after his 1965 takeover, the military pervades government...

...The Asian financial crisis is just the latest example of the administration's subordination of political objectives to economic interests.Yet the economic crisis has reinforced rather than undermined the need for democracy and the rule of law...

...Under these circumstances, the Clinton administration's disproportionate emphasis on the small IMET program—independent of any larger policy for encouraging change—is a throwback to the days when the United States saw Suharto as a reliable anti-Communist ally in Southeast Asia...

...She also passed up the opportunity to call for restraint by the armed forces, which on February 17 issued shoot-to-kill orders, and to criticize the regime's scapegoating of the country's ethnic Chinese minority...

...In other words, the armed forces, known as ABRI, are not simply the instrument of a dictatorial regime, they are the regime...

...Challenges to central rule, for example in East Timor and Aceh, should be dealt with through democratic change, devolution of political power, and broader representation at the national level...

...In the case of Indonesia, the presupposed absence of any alternative to the septuagenarian Suharto—and the settled belief that Indonesia's economic success has somehow conferred legitimacy on its government—absolves the administration of the obligation to seek out and support democratic alternatives...

...policy vigorously favoring transition to a democratic system with civilian control of the military than they will to a small-budget program that presumes ABRI's dominance for years to come...

...ambassador to Indonesia, at a conference on Indonesia last November...

...Fearful of congressional opposition, the administration postponed the sale to Indonesia until early 1997...

...On further investigation, however, the sentences turn out to be exceedingly light for the offenses involved...

...Furthermore, the U.S...

...The administration's self-marginalization in Indonesia brings to mind the theory briefly propounded by President Clinton last year that democracy is inevitable in China...

...Authoritarian systems give you stability— until it goes, and when it goes, it goes spectacularly," observed Paul Wolfowitz, a former U.S...

...As Adam Schwarz writes, "the running joke about the parliament is that its activities can be summarized by the five Ds: datang, duduk, dengar, diam, duit, which means roughly, 'show up, sit down, listen, shut up and collect your paycheck.'" The only two other legal political organizations, the PDI and the PPP, are creations of Suharto, operate under severe restrictions, and must subscribe to the state ideology, pancasila...

...The Clinton administration responded meekly...

...Over the next few weeks, look for the administration to present Indonesia in much the same light as China, a country from which, we are told, the United States needs support on numerous regional and international issues and where Asian sensitivities preclude Americans' "telling it like it is" about democracy, the rule of law, and corruption...

...This will be a clear sign that the administration is prepared to sail with the Suharto ship of state...

...To the contrary, the single unifying theme is sticking with Suharto...

...It would indicate that the Clinton administration could see the obvious: that the Suharto regime is in a death spiral and the only real question is what will replace it...

...In reality, however, Suharto faces growing opposition from the public, including mounting student demonstrations and challenges from a number of figures who advocate democracy and represent significant followings...

...influence over policies in Indonesia is widely held in the administration...

...Leaders of nongovernment organizations, which play a preeminent role in representing the interests of citizens in Indonesia thanks to the ban on independent political activity, were yanked in for repeated interrogations, and the regime threatened to bar foreign funding of such organizations...

...Since then, he has ruled with an artful blend of repression, political manipulation, and a pretense of democratic reforms so successful that U.S...

...These jets were among the 28 planes denied to Pakistan by the 1990 Pressler Amendment's ban on sales to countries engaged in nuclear proliferation...

...Despite Suharto's crackdown of the past 20 months, the administration also supports renewing Indonesia's full participation in the International Military Education and Training program (IMET...

...When pressed, Lord at least criticized as unfounded the Suharto regime's exploitation of a supposed Communist threat, which is more than any administration official has done with respect to the scapegoating of Chinese...

...Acceptance of the idea that there are no alternatives to his rule is a sign of how effective Suharto has been at neutralizing his opponents and numbing international opinion...

...Winning back "full IMET" for Indonesia has been a major goal of the administration, which justifies restoration of the training program by citing court-martials and prison sentences meted out to human rights abusers at the instigation of IMET graduates...

...This year's State Department human-rights report documents extrajudicial killings, disappearances, arbitrary arrests, and torture...

...That's difficult to tell, but it's no justification for maintaining Indonesia's system...

...But in today's changed world, priorities should be different...

...The military's occupation of East Timor continues, and according to Human Rights Watch/Asia, repression there increased during the past year...

...Suharto made known what he thinks of all these missions by adopting new security powers, claiming the IMF package violates the Indonesian constitution, and appointing as his vice president an old friend whose selection eroded confidence in the rupiah even further...

...Absent from the secretary's remarks were any appreciation of the political causes of Indonesia's economic mess and any expression of support for concrete steps toward democracy...

...Deputy treasury secretary Lawrence Summers visited, then defense secretary William Cohen, followed by International Monetary Fund president Michel Camdessus...

...Deputy assistant secretary of defense Kurt Campbell testified at the September 1996 hearing, "It is unrealistic to assume that any U.S...

...In June 1996, the government orchestrated the removal of the popular leader of the Indonesian Democratic party (PDI), one of two parties created by the government to function as a controlled "opposition...

...Indonesia is just the latest spot in Asia where the administration is subordinating democracy to other policy objectives, chiefly economic ones...

...In his days as a senator, Secretary of Defense Cohen himself had crafted the trigger, setting the bar high enough to make any investment ban unlikely...

...Newt Gingrich supports tying IMF funds directly to Suharto's departure...

...Suharto, the world's longest-ruling dictator after Fidel Castro, came to power in 1965 in a coup that unleashed a bloodbath against suspected members of the Indonesian Communist party...

...Amien Rais, of Muhammadiyah, another mass Islamic group, has criticized Suharto and his family for corruption, saying, "Mr...

...No one in the administration ever argued that Indonesia needed the F-16s...

...In the absence of significant external threats, ABRI's chief responsibility is maintaining internal control...

...Instead, "Changing military attitudes and behavior will depend on the broader political trends and the transition to a more open political system...

...By that time, however, the campaign-finance scandal in Washington had roared into high gear, and the sale was effectively canceled...

...That's preposterous, of course...

...Instead, the administration is torn by internal debates, which fail to reach the heart of the problem...

...A hearing on Indonesia on March 24 in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will force the administration to articulate its policy...

...The issue is no longer whether Suharto will comply with the IMF's demands (he won't), but when the Clinton administration will accept that the Suharto regime is in its death throes...

...The best bet for an Indonesia capable of acting as an ally in the region is democracy...