Adrift in the Gulf

...These new deputy chairmen would come from the four permanent-member countries on the council...

...During the recent period of intensive U.N...

...A Financial Times headline captured this theme: "Iraqi deal is key to broader Mideast solution, says Annan...

...Secretariat to get a firmer grip on the steering wheel of policy in the Persian Gulf and perhaps the Middle East generally...

...There, in a shift little noticed in the United States, the initiative has moved away from Washington and toward those who oppose the use of force against Iraq, in particular the United Nations...

...As his confident statements demonstrate, Annan is now a leading international player in the Persian Gulf...

...Disturbing as these portents are, they pale beside what appears to be the secretary general's larger vision of dealing with "post-crisis Iraq...

...They are self-starters, who would not have accepted these new responsibilities—nor would Annan have chosen them—if they were content simply to be new potted plants on the U.N.'s shelves...

...Secretariat (and probably for Iraq), and Shah's presence gives the Iraqis another channel of communication to the secretary general when they don't want to go through Butler (which is almost always...

...Whether or not the Russian play succeeds, the appointment of Dhanapala and Shah has accomplished several objectives that almost certainly amount to setbacks for the United States...

...inspectors in the coming critical months—or even silence what has been the relatively aggressive (if not always successful) voice of UNSCOM in U.N...

...activity, the Clinton administration has been consumed with the Lewinsky affair, with no relief in sight...

...The early results are in, and, unsurprisingly, the Iraqis have posed no major obstacles to inspectors...

...Increasingly distracted by his personal political problems, he has reverted to the inattention to foreign policy characteristic of his administration...

...Iraq has dropped off Madeleine Albright's public agenda, to be replaced by what are for her more comfortable fulminations against Serbia...

...In fact, once sanctions are lifted they could do it much better than anybody can do it for them...

...The other principal player, President Clinton, to this day has not clearly defined his objectives in the Gulf...

...Pressure on the United States to agree to lifting of all economic sanctions will not only grow, but will have Clinton's acquiescence...

...Dhanapala and Shah are both bright, highly competent, and energetic diplomats steeped in the U.N...

...First he named undersecretary-general Jayantha Dhanapala to superintend the diplomats who will accompany the U.N...

...It would be unthinkable that we wouldn't...

...He has clear ideas about the outcome he wants, is moving vigorously to implement them, and is riding a wave of international acclaim unprecedented for a secretary general since Dag Hammarskjold...

...He has coupled his hope for a "new Iraq" with his perception that "Iran is trying to come out and deal with its neighbors and the outside world," and he has joined both with the idea of finally resolving the Arab-Israeli dispute...

...To the contrary, these diplomats form the core of a new Annan team that could tip the balance of initiative not only away from the United States but even away from the Security Council...

...This amounts to yet another lost opportunity to make the case to the American people and the world for the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime...

...It now appears that we are in a standoff with Iraq during which American inattention will allow the U.N...

...At least until some American military forces are withdrawn from the region or the United Nations stumbles onto a research, storage, or production site for weapons of mass destruction, the Iraqis will, on the surface, appear to comply with the deal...

...It does not bode well for the United States that the president's ability to direct even his inadequate policy of containment is slipping from his hands...

...Then Annan appointed Prakash Shah, former Indian ambassador to the U.N., his special representative to Iraq, serving as his "eyes and ears...

...This may seriously constrain U.N...

...A former Sri Lankan ambassador to the United States, Dhanapala is an expert in international arms control and experienced in U.N...

...Annan drove this point home on March 8 when he asserted, on the strength of nothing but his own opinion, that the United States "would be required" to consult with the Security Council before using force against Iraq...

...In an interview with the Financial Times, Annan characterized his appointment of Shah as filling a "major void," adding that "until now we were dealing with [Iraq] as if the relationship was concerned only with disarmament and humanitarian assistance and nothing in between...

...role in the Arab-Israeli dispute...

...And these are but two of several reasons why even a bad slip by the Iraqis will not produce the automatic council support for military action that the administration so confidently predicted in embracing the Baghdad deal...

...Annan notes, "We have too many trouble spots that feed off each other and reinforce each other...

...Annan has also said unambiguously, "We should look down the horizon to post-crisis Iraq and see where we go from here...

...One of his aides, Shashi Tharoor, even while reciting the need to comply with Security Council resolutions, said expressly that Annan "has signaled that the international community must look to a time beyond sanctions when Iraq could join the family of nations...

...inspectors to the Iraqi "presidential sites...

...Now, with Shah's appointment, the Secretariat has a direct channel to Saddam Hussein...

...John R. Bolton is the senior vice president of the American Enterprise Institute...

...Coincidentally, Israel's new willingness more fully to embrace Resolution 425, dealing with southern Lebanon, may further feed the enthusiasm of those who seek a larger U.N...

...Ever-helpful France convinced the Russians to back down to two deputy chairmen, but Moscow is asserting vigorously that the new slot should be filled by a Russian...

...Already, the administration has moved from reluctantly accepting the Baghdad deal to embracing it...

...Indeed, Annan himself said of the oil-for-food program, "The fact that [the Iraqis] don't manage it themselves and that we treat them like babies really offends them...

...In the Bush administration, he served as assistant secretary of state for international organizations...

...The Russians, meanwhile, have made their own play, proposing four new deputy chairmen for Richard Butler, head of UNSCOM, the U.N.'s weapons-monitoring operation in Iraq...

...Given recent developments, one wonders whether her threats are taken any more seriously in Belgrade than in Baghdad...

...We are drifting, and there is no shoreline in sight...

...diplomacy...

...deliberations...

...Just three days later, President Clinton bent his knee by saying, "Of course we would consult...

...culture...

...Until now, the sole deputy chairman has been an American...

...First, UNSCOM chairman Richard Butler and his American deputy have been effectively "layered": Dhanapala's diplomats have been inserted into UNSCOM as watchers for the U.N...

...They are very disciplined, very hard workers...

...The real action in the last three weeks, however, has been on the political and diplomatic fronts...

...Second, Annan's complaint about the U.N.'s inadequate relationship with Iraq reflects dissatisfaction with the lack of dialogue on the remaining economic sanctions...

...Annan has quickly consolidated his position...

...Moreover, the president's unprecedented concession to consult the Security Council before using force can only provide Saddam Hussein with additional safeguards and early warnings before he is truly in danger again...

...weapons-inspection teams...