Speaker Armey?

...By leaving the field early, Paxon has refocused attention on the now-unopposed majority leader's flaws...

...They say he doesn't seem to enjoy the one-on-one contact that is fundamental to leadership jobs and that he's ill suited to the other great leadership responsibility—serving as a spokesman for the party on the Sunday-morning television shows...

...So why, with Paxon's withdrawal, can't Armey celebrate...

...More recently, Armey has angered a number of influential Republicans by deciding to keep a healthy chunk of the House's operating budget for his own office rather than distributing it to committee chairmen...

...Bob Livingston, the Appropriations Committee chairman, has announced he will run to succeed Gingrich...

...In the unlikely event of a two-man race between Livingston and Armey, Armey would prevail...

...Paxon was about to challenge Armey for the number-two job in the House...

...The bad blood was such that they've barely spoken a word to each other over the past seven months...

...He's derided for being too concerned with process, for keeping Democratic staffers on the Appropriations Committee, and for losing his sense of fiscal conservatism...

...Others point to incidents such as Armey's ham-handed attempts at lobbying...

...They also say Armey frequently leaves the impression he's not listening...

...But they will probably be challenged by at least one less-senior House member, perhaps David Mcintosh or Jennifer Dunn...

...Sometimes you have to shout at the man to get him to understand what you're saying," one House conservative told me...

...Steve Largent could make a bid to represent social conservatives, and Henry Hyde is often talked about as a compromise choice...

...Armey, it turns out, is almost deaf in his right ear, but refuses to wear a hearing aid...

...Paxon's departure, then, hasn't lessened the odds of a knock-down drag-out leadership struggle among House Republicans—that fight has only been postponed till Gingrich's departure...

...When announcing he wasn't running for reelection, Paxon made sure to claim he would have had the votes to defeat Armey...

...Armey does have many strengths—he's an underappreciated fund-raiser—but he has a problem: While he was once an icon on the right, today he has no obvious constituency...

...But Livingston has no ideological constituency, only fellow appropriators...

...Armey skeptics in the House—who span the ideological spectrum—point out that he is a loner at heart (his favorite hobby is fishing) who has been most effective pursuing free-market crusades like overhauling the tax code, closing obsolete military bases, and slashing farm subsidies...

...Had Paxon challenged and defeated Armey, he would have been a lock to become the next speaker...

...Armey survived after undergoing a midnight conversion and shifting his allegiance from the plotters back to the speaker...

...At a November meeting of House Republicans, for example, he told the group if they didn't support the fast-track free-trade policy, he wouldn't come to their districts and campaign for them...

...Major-league disconnect," said a Republican who was present...

...Gingrich fired Paxon from his appointed job as chairman of the House GOP leadership team...

...And whoever won would be in line to be the next speaker of the House—perhaps as soon as next year, if Newt Gingrich resigns as expected to run for president...

...And a surprising consensus is emerging on Capitol Hill: Dick Armey will easily be reelected majority leader, but he will never become speaker of the House...

...Moderates mostly distrust him on ideological grounds, and many conservatives feel he's sacrificed his principles since joining the leadership...

...Now it's wide open...

...While believing Armey has been a "very good" majority leader, he says, "I don't see Dick in the position of speaker...

...Matthew Rees is a staff writer for The Weekly Standard...

...But the startling news that Paxon is following in the footsteps of his wife—former representative Susan Molinari, who also gave up a promising career in the House—may actually hurt Armey...

...So too, he's becoming more expressive: While giving a talk to school-choice supporters last year, he surprised the audience by choking up with emotion...

...On the personal side, he has few close friends outside his extremely loyal, and able, staff...

...A number of his colleagues say that after last summer's failed coup, Armey recognized his vulnerability and embarked on a self-improvement binge: He's been more accommodating of members' needs, while also spending more time socializing on the House floor...

...Republicans traditionally promote their heirs apparent, but Gingrich helped break that tradition, and Armey may be a victim of this shift in the party culture...

...Talk of his challenge to Armey had been brewing since last July, when the two of them fell out after the failed putsch to depose Gingrich...

...Paxon felt Armey had never fessed up to his involvement, while Armey thought Paxon was a traitor...

...Pro-lifers were also offended by his ardent opposition late last year to their linking money for the U.N...

...Gore may yet become president, but to hear his colleagues tell it, Armey's career has peaked...

...to abortion policy...

...Far from turning votes, the threat produced flutters of laughter, since no one thought his political future hinged on such appearances by Armey...

...In many ways, Dick Armey now shares the predicament of Al Gore: Their respective superiors are simultaneously their biggest assets and their biggest liabilities...

...Prior to Paxon's announcement, there was little doubt he would try to topple Armey...

...Chris Shays, a GOP moderate, believes the next person to hold Gingrich's job will be a conservative, but he doesn't think it will be Armey—a former economics professor with a fondness for Adam Smith neckties...