The GOP: Time to Panic
BARNES, FRED
The GOP: Time to Panic by Fred Barnes REPUBLICANS ARE IN A STATE OF DENIAL. House speaker Newt Gingrich mouths a mantra about Republican prospects this fall: The GOP is 90 percent certain to...
...Sorry, but things aren’t this rosy...
...This time, if there’s a proDemocratic tide before November 5, even a small one, it could engulf the 14 Republicans now trailing, not to mention many others now in the lead...
...Only maybe they won’t...
...But it’s not 1984 all over again, at least not yet...
...For the first time, I can see Republicans losing control—and no Republicans are acknowledging it,” says a prominent Republican pollster...
...If there’s a wave late in the campaign, it probably won’t be a pro-Republican one...
...But this is quite possible...
...Since then, the group has collected only $1.7 million more...
...A plurality of Americans believe the country is on the right track for the first time since Desert Storm in 1991...
...Ed Brookover, the committee’s political director, says Republicans could easily reach 280 or 290 House seats in subsequent elections...
...The call will be made at the White House, and Clinton has a strong motive for wanting a Democratic Congress: Whitewater, Travelgate, and Filegate...
...The business group, known as the Coalition, raised $1.3 million over the summer and ran TV commercials defending two endangered Republican freshmen, Greg Ganske of Iowa and George Nethercutt of Washington...
...House speaker Newt Gingrich mouths a mantra about Republican prospects this fall: The GOP is 90 percent certain to hold the House and Senate and 60 percent likely to pull off a hat trick by winning the White House, too...
...The trick is to turn the agenda away from Democratic issues like Medicare, but House Republicans haven’t managed that so far...
...The most striking thing about 1996 congressional races is the contrast with 1994...
...Another discouraging sign for Republicans is the failure of a massive campaign effort by the business lobby to materialize...
...Of course, Democrats would probably have to win another 8 to 12 GOP seats to offset Democratic losses, chiefly in the South...
...Millions, maybe tens of millions, no longer needed by Clinton go to House and Senate Democratic challengers...
...Still, there’s a basic difference between 1994 and 1996 that’s good news for Democrats...
...That’s when President Reagan won a landslide reelection, while the Democrats won two Senate seats and lost a mere 14 in the House...
...The worst-case scenario for Republicans starts with Bob Dole’s continued failure to become competitive with Clinton...
...This is extraordinarily unusual...
...That’s true, but if business groups weren’t demoralized about GOP chances, they’d find a way to raise the money...
...At the moment, there are ominous signs for Republicans...
...Had labor made a similar effort in 1994, Newhouse says, Republicans might not have won the House...
...But even Gingrich concedes this was too late...
...Life is good...
...The NRCC reluctantly aired three pro-GOP spots in late summer...
...Normally, almost all incumbents lead in polls six or seven weeks before Election Day, and if they lose, it’s the result of a surge to their opponents in the final days of the campaign...
...Concentrated in 10 Senate and 30 or 40 House races, this infusion could have a powerful impact...
...The Republican hold on the House in 1996 is tenuous (the Senate looks better...
...Democratic strategists believe antipathy toward Gingrich may produce an anti-GOP wave, which is why Clinton and other Democratic honchos mention his name so much...
...Neil Newhouse, whose firm is polling in more than 50 House contests, says Gingrich “isn’t the negative in this election that Clinton was in 1994 and that it looked like he was going to be...
...Democrats have but a 10 percent chance of capturing Congress...
...Absent the labor-financed ads, Republicans might be facing a tranquil, proincumbent environment...
...But don’t count on that...
...And they may get one...
...The excuse is that labor can assess its members for campaign funds but business groups can’t...
...Worried as he is, GOP pollster Newhouse figures Republicans “will hold on by the skin of our teeth...
...That’s not something that’s easy to overcome...
...What’s different is the absence of the negative passion toward Clinton,” says pollster Whit Ayres...
...After Congress passed welfare and health-insurance reform in August, its approval rating jumped overnight (in one Midwest congressional district from 33 percent to 48 percent...
...With no ads defending them for months, “our members felt we left them unprotected,” Gingrich told Congressional Quarterly...
...Democrats theoretically need to pick up only 19 seats, assuming Socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont is reelected and votes with Democrats, as he invariably does...
...With the White House, Congress, and much of the press against him, Starr would have to be singularly courageous to seek indictments against White House officials, particularly Hillary Rodham Clinton...
...When Democrats and labor launched their media blitz against roughly 50 Republican incumbents last winter, the GOP did nothing...
...Bill Paxon, Gingrich’s prot?g...
...Still another disturbing note is that Republicans may not have the one advantage they’d counted on in the closing weeks of the campaign: a whopping edge in spending...
...What’s more, Clinton would have a powerful ally against Kenneth Starr, the independent counsel...
...and boss of the National Republican Congressional Committee, claims Republicans will gain 20 to 30 House seats...
...Instead, says Newhouse, “the whole political environment is more polarized at the congressional level than I’ve ever seen it...
...Jim Nussle of Iowa, for example, boasts of reforming Congress itself...
...So incumbents like Steve Chabot in Cincinnati finally had to counter labor attack ads by financing their own rebuttal TV spots, leaving them less money to use against their Democratic challengers now...
...Republicans eager to duplicate the results of 1984 have begun running upbeat ads touting their accomplishments...
...Ed Brookover of the National Republican Congressional Committee says Republican House candidates should outspend Democrats by 3-to-2 after Labor Day...
...While GOP officials in Washington exude optimism, Republican House incumbents and their political consultants are frightened...
...You can be sure Clinton and his aides have thought about this...
...GOP consultant Jeffrey Bell says Republican House members were “naked against the enemy...
...Republicans panic, while Democrats recognize their opportunity...
...The ads demagogued the Medicare issue effectively, but Republican officials concluded their money could best be used this fall...
...GOP incumbents have worse poll numbers than normal...
...That’s what happened in 1994, when Republicans won the House for the first time in 40 years, and in 1982, when the GOP lost 26 seats...
...This is a pittance compared with the $35 million organized labor has promised to spend...
...Democrats claim 14 GOP incumbents are behind in either public or private polls...
...It was supposed to offset the well-financed attacks on GOP incumbents by the AFL-CIO with a $10 million effort...
...Indeed, it hasn’t been...
...He insisted on anonymity for fear of retribution by Republican officials...
...freshmen are frequently below 50 percent...
...So GOP candidates are hoping for the next best thing: a national mood aiding incumbents...
...The GOP’s problem is partly the result of a bad decision...
...That’s what drove the tidal wave in 1994...
...But Democrats, usually strapped for funds, are considering steering millions now earmarked to aid President Clinton to congressional races instead...
...In some districts, 70 percent of poll respondents recall specific AFL-CIO ads, Newhouse says...
...In 1994, we had Democratic incumbents who were below 50 percent [in polls] and Republican challengers who were surging,” says Rob Engel, political director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee...
...If Democrats control Congress, investigations of the Clinton White House are likely to cease...
...That would give them, at a minimum, a 256-178 edge over Democrats—in other words, a commanding majority like those held for decades by House Democrats...
...That’s just a scenario, but it could happen...
...Then comes the first nationally televised debate—at which Clinton scores a decisive triumph over Dole...
...Now we have Republican incumbents below 50 percent and Democratic challengers who are surging...
...Democratic challengers are better off...
...Clinton himself wouldn’t have to devote time to pitching for a Democratic Congress...
Vol. 2 • September 1996 • No. 3
