Least Favored Nation
BARNES, FRED
Least Favored Nation by Fred Barnes The dais was lined with American exports (various types of grain) and Chinese imports (toys, baseballs, sneakers) when the Business Coalition for U.s.-China...
...The issue: extending most-favored-nation trade status to China for another year...
...A lot of people will follow Armey," says House majority whip Tom DeLay, who favors MFN...
...Were he to, it would land him in a bitter fight with the business community, with which Republicans are normally allied...
...One reason is some labor leaders are leery of crossing Clinton and Gore...
...Bill Paxon of New York, who chairs the House GOP leadership meetings, switched and joined MFN opponents on May 12...
...whatever Armey decides, foes like Bauer and solomon insist they have a shot at defeating MFN in the House...
...If he jumps, six of the top 12 Republican leaders in the House will be against MFN...
...Now it includes John Kasich, chairman of the House Budget Committee and one of the most influential Republicans in Congress...
...Bauer and his people have done a good job among conservatives," concedes a labor official...
...Least Favored Nation by Fred Barnes The dais was lined with American exports (various types of grain) and Chinese imports (toys, baseballs, sneakers) when the Business Coalition for U.s.-China Trade convened a meeting in early May in the Rayburn House Building...
...I'm a free-market guy...
...To defeat MFN in the House, opponents must pick up 70 votes...
...It was a tough call," says Paxon, explaining his decision to oppose MFN...
...DeLay, who's never wavered, says, "If you're looking to export freedom around the world, you don't start by taking away freedom from Americans...
...The purpose: stir enthusiasm among attendees, mostly Republican House members and corporate lobbyists...
...Certainly Armey knows the case against extending MFN again...
...Neither Kasich nor Hyde has publicly announced his opposition, but Chris Cox of California, who heads the House Republican Policy Committee, and Gerald solomon, chairman of the House Rules Committee, are longtime critics of normal trade relations with China...
...He gives them cover...
...The list of prominent foes of MFN is growing...
...I'm not leading the charge...
...in an interview, he volunteered a list of Chinese abuses—human rights, Taiwan, "their antics in American politics," religious persecution, Hong Kong...
...After flinching briefly, House speaker Newt Gingrich declared his backing for MFN on May 19...
...Frankly, history is on the side of that model...
...The crowd looked worried...
...Thirdly, Shimkus cites a constituent who adopted a Chinese baby...
...I'm pro-MFN for three reasons," he says...
...GOP representative Jennifer Dunn of Washington said they needed to come up with answers to "the excuses" offered by House members who oppose MFN...
...His hunch is Armey will vote against MFN...
...They've been putting on a big push...
...With their outcry, it's causing people to take a second look...
...But he "has not seen the improvements," says Kasich aide Bruce Cuthbertson, and thus will vote against MFN...
...Without MFN, "they wouldn't be proud parents of a 13-month-old baby...
...Shimkus personifies why persuading Republicans to oppose MFN is difficult...
...Secondly, I'm a believer in international trade...
...Armey would be the most important MFN foe because of his clout with wavering Republicans...
...Last year, MFN was approved in the House 286-141...
...Boehner contends the "best way to deal with religious persecution and lack of democratic reform is through open trade, access to the west, and the policy of engagement...
...President Clinton's pro-MFN allies in the House GOP leadership aren't giving up yet...
...They have reason to be...
...For his part, Armey says he probably won't announce his vote until he actually casts it...
...whatever he decides, Armey says, "the vote will be very close...
...Armey is the pivotal figure...
...And majority leader Dick Armey, another advocate of MFN in the past, is reconsidering his support...
...The Christians may get him...
...I'm from an agricultural district and it's critical we continue to expand our markets...
...And neither Paxon nor Armey will help attract them...
...Gary Bauer, who runs the anti-MFN drive among religious conservatives, has twice talked to Armey...
...Their alliance has alarmed pro-MFN leaders...
...But Armey says he continues to believe "freedom of enterprise brings prosperity and fosters further freedom...
...Bauer, who heads the Family Research Council, says he's talked to a dozen Republicans who've already decided to switch and oppose MFN, plus "at least 25" more who backed MFN last year and are rethinking...
...Bob Livingston, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, argues that "if we cut off MFN now, we wouldn't have any leverage when Hong Kong becomes a part of China" on July 1. Bill Archer, chairman of the ways and Means Committee, and Dunn, secretary of the House Republican conference, strongly support MFN...
...Both Jeff Fiedler, president of the Food and Allied Service Trades Department of the AFL-CIO, and John Carr of the Catholic Conference appeared with Bauer at a press conference on May 21...
...They didn't stir much...
...Representative Nancy Pelosi of California recently chastised labor for doing too little to squelch MFN...
...Henry Hyde, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, is also expected to oppose MFN for the first time...
...It's our job to do a similar job with the so-called liberals...
...Eastman Kodak, for example, is a major presence in Paxon's district in upstate New York and favors MFN...
...Yet Shimkus understands why other Republicans may vote against MFN...
...Kasich voted for MFN in 1996 in hopes it would lead to improvements in human rights in China...
...winning in the senate, then overriding a Clinton veto, is considerably less likely...
...while Bauer leans on Republicans, organized labor and the U.S...
...Catholic Conference are lobbying against MFN among Democrats...
...Christian conservatives—"and I am one"—have helped create an anti-MFN environment, he says...
...FredBarnes is executive editorof The Weekly Standard...
...All isn't well on the Democratic side of the anti-MFN coalition either...
...And Republican John Shimkus of Illinois dampened the mood by noting ominously that many of his GOP freshman colleagues are under enormous pressure to oppose MFN...
...That, he says, is the strongest argument for renewing MFN...
...And maybe cast a no vote...
...The coalition of opponents for the first time has coalesced and is fairly well knitted together," says John Boehner, who heads the House Republican Conference...
Vol. 2 • June 1997 • No. 37
