No Deal-with a dissent from Fred Barnes
No Deal On May Day 1997, the Republican congressional leadership declared victory—and capitulated. The mammoth deal on the federal budget that brings it to balance by 2002 was a capitulation less...
...Sure, it feels good to erupt like Krakatoa over the idea of compromising with Clinton...
...Fred Barnes Dissents When President Bush signed on to a budget agreement in 1990 that jacked up spending and raised taxes, conservatives rebelled because the deal was so bad...
...Clinton's political strategy, it is now clear, is to move from big-government liberalism to what might be called "balanced-budget liberalism...
...His political talents have them baffled...
...It would be good if this deal were defeated by the Congress, but it's not necessary that it go down...
...It is true that GOP negotiators retreated on health care, which will allow Medicaid to cover more children...
...The high command of the Republican party fears nothing so much as having to make the case for, having to fight for, a Republican agenda...
...Re-limiting government is hard...
...And it locks in place a center-right coalition—conservative and moderate Republicans, plus the dwindling band of moderate Democrats—that should govern Washington for years to come...
...And this deal will save liberalism...
...We can now move on all the other things conservatives believe in," says Rep...
...But because this deal commits the Republican party to the current size, scope, and shape of the federal government—and if the Republican party is not about reducing and reforming Washington, it is about nothing...
...By producing a balanced budget while slashing rather than raising taxes, they've done exactly that...
...It need not be...
...Holding spending hikes at the level of inflation until 2002 means that, coupled with $53 billion in spending cuts the last two years, Republicans will essentially have frozen domestic spending at 1995 levels over seven years...
...If the world changes and America is overtly threatened, they can increase defense spending...
...For if it goes through, tax cuts are off the table as an issue in 1998...
...rebuilding our defenses may not win votes...
...Nobody understands the meaning of the deal better than liberals...
...The budget deal's implications go far beyond its mere fiscal outlines...
...The budget deal is a profound act of political self-mutilation because it commits the Republican party— the party of conservative reform—to the status quo...
...The budget deal offers Clinton a lifeline...
...Ever since the bungled government shutdown in late 1995, much of the Republican establishment has been scared of its own shadow...
...But would Republicans have been tougher next year, an election year, in warding off Democratic efforts to expand the federal role in health care...
...It commits the Republican party—the party of fundamental change—to mounting no fundamental challenge to current levels of taxes, domestic spending, and defense for the foreseeable future...
...The mammoth deal on the federal budget that brings it to balance by 2002 was a capitulation less to Bill Clinton than to fear...
...A rebellion against this deal from the backbenches and from the grass roots can save the Republican party and the conservative cause...
...As the battles over welfare reform and this deal itself among liberals show, another Democratic crackup might well be imminent...
...Finally, the politics of the situation argued for a deal...
...Why are Republicans giving it to him...
...And it is those brave souls who step forward to lead this fight who are likely to emerge at the head of a resurgent and victorious party in the year 2000...
...The spirit of the deal will spill over—it has already spilled over—into every other aspect of our public policy debates...
...The deal does not require Republicans to sit on their hands for the next five years...
...It is an attempt to guarantee a content-free politics for the foreseeable future...
...It is a fight that must be fought and can be won...
...The chance for an enduring realignment will be frittered away...
...Balanced-budget liberalism is the only way to save liberalism now that the era of enthusiasm for big government has ended...
...What if Republicans had balked...
...They're wrong, but their view is bound to prevail for now whether there's a deal or not...
...it will, of course, have to come to terms with the president on appropriations bills, taxes, particular policy areas, and appointments...
...If it is to be real, a Republican agenda must be a conservative agenda, and conservative policies are controversial...
...The most glaring problem with the deal is in the area of defense spending...
...So the Republican leadership decided they would rather deal than fight...
...On the other hand, the accord with Clinton provides major conservative achievements...
...And oh, yes, it does another not-so-small thing: It balances the budget...
...Why have congressional Republicans been unwilling to take on the existing system of racial preferences...
...This fight is about the future of the Republican party and the conservative movement...
...Nothing in the deal precludes Republicans from overhauling the tax code or seeking a (deficit-neutral) cut in personal tax rates...
...Now President Clinton has agreed to a deal that blocks domestic spending increases beyond inflation, takes the first significant whack out of entitlements, and cuts taxes...
...The budget deal makes it a reality...
...That was only a prediction...
...This fight is not about legislative strategy or even about the details of budget policy...
...Gingrich lost in 1990...
...Bill Paxon...
...Because Bill Clinton was reelected last year, the Republican Congress will have to make compromises...
...Clinton would have murdered them, listing all the tax cuts he'd acceded to and blaming Republicans for impeding a balanced budget...
...re-moralizing society is a formidable challenge...
...They did—or didn't do—all these things for the same reason they are so enthusiastic about the budget deal: They have lost faith in their ability to prevail, either intellectually or politically, in their battles against Bill Clinton...
...After all, Reagan lost in 1976...
...All the American voters will see is the contrast between Clinton's feel-good mini-proposals and Republican inarticulateness...
...But there's a fundamental difference between making particular compromises as necessity requires and embracing a political strategy of grand compromise...
...And so on...
...Not bad...
...A healthy internal Republican debate was followed by a Democratic crackup (first in the late Carter administration, and then in the first two years of Clinton...
...Ronald Reagan's 1976 assault on the Nixon-Ford policy of detente made possible the victory of 1980...
...Thus, last year's content-free GOP convention and idea-free Dole campaign...
...And now they also get $200 billion in entitlement savings (or an estimated $700 billion over 10 years) without the threat of massive Democratic attacks on them for hard-heartedness...
...But to do this case by case is very different from signing on to a joint plan that shapes the fundamental contours of public policy for the next five years...
...Former labor secretary Robert Reich suggested in Locked in the Cabinet that Clinton's endorsement of a balanced budget in 1995 would mark the end of programmatic liberalism in Washington...
...Defense is off the table as an issue in 2000...
...In terms of substance, it is the best conservatives could hope for, given a Democrat in the White House...
...The five-year budget deal follows in this path...
...Why did Senate Republicans refuse last week to embrace a strategy of challenging President Clinton's appointments to the federal courts...
...They would probably have been more craven in 1998...
...The cuts in capital-gains and inheritance taxes would be unattainable otherwise...
...they don't know how to fight him, and therefore they no longer want to try...
...Why didn't it occur to anyone in the congressional leadership to consider amending Title IX when the Supreme Court said this provision requires a draconian reshaping of the athletic program of every college and university in the country...
...But Republicans sometimes have to show they can govern as conservatives...
...This is a deal that should prompt conservatives not to revolt again but to declare victory...
...What will the party stand for in the elections of 1998 and 2000...
...All this so Republicans can avoid the difficult task of making real choices and serious arguments over the next months and years...
...It has been fearful of its own principles, doubtful of its own abilities, intimidated from advocating its own policies...
...Republicans will be on the defensive...
...Congressional Democrats like Barney Frank and David Bonior and David Obey are apoplectic...
...Thus, this year's agenda-free Republican Congress...
...Newt Gingrich's 1990 insurrection against the Bush budget deal laid the groundwork for 1994...
...Worse, the budget deal will mean a Republican legitimization of Clintonism...
...In both these cases, a challenge to the Republican establishment strengthened and revivified the party...
...Practically all Democrats, and Republicans such as John Kasich, believe defense should be cut brutally...
...Despite flaws, the deal is worthwhile both substan-tively and politically...
...It won't work...
...The Republican Congress can't simply get what it wants...
...Not just because Democratic unhap-piness with the budget deal may bring it toppling down...
...Why this past week, were Republicans utterly silent when the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission announced that employers have to provide special accommodations for employees with any mental disability...
Vol. 2 • May 1997 • No. 34
