The Hill rethinks china
REES, MATTHEW
The Hill Rethinks China by Matthew Rees House majority leader Dick Armey is the kind of guy who sports an Adam Smith necktie and worships at the altar of free trade. In his 12 years in Congress,...
...Every time I go to Capitol Hill," he says, "I get stopped by members who tell me they're rethinking their position on MFN...
...Chinese transgressions bring together a vast array of groups: Religious persecution and forced abortion galvanize the religious Right...
...Bauer is also working with James Dobson's Colorado-based Focus on the Family...
...In the Senate, Jesse Helms will carry the anti-MFN flag...
...In the next few months they will distribute up to five million pieces of anti-MFN mail...
...elections mobilizes just about everyone else...
...In a recent column, Pat Buchanan exhorted Gingrich to do so, warning that "to lead his party against the White House in a battle of political principle and high policy" is the only way he can remain speaker...
...And there's reason to believe more Democrats may vote against MFN this year than last...
...All of this activity seems to find a receptive audience in Washington...
...and the possibility that Beijing attempted to influence U.S...
...Prior to Vice President Gore's trip to China, Wellstone wrote him a letter calling it "crucial that the U.S...
...and one of the administration's chief Democratic allies on the issue, Rep...
...arms proliferation and threats to neighbors alarm geopolitical strategists...
...But the more the issue becomes a matter of embarrassing the White House, the less money will matter...
...Bill Paxon, former chairman of the House GOP campaign committee, a close ally of House speaker Newt Gingrich, and a vigorous champion of free trade, says he's likely to oppose MFN renewal for China...
...Armey is increasingly concerned about the hand-over of Hong Kong to China, about human-rights abuses, and about Beijing's alleged attempts to influence U.S...
...A lot of members who previously supported MFN are rethinking that support," he told me...
...House Republicans already against MFN include Susan Molinari (Paxon's wife and vice-chair of the House GOP Conference), Chris Cox (Policy Committee chairman), Ben Gilman (International Relations Committee chairman), and Gerald Solomon (Rules Committee chairman...
...And even if the votes were there, President Clinton would veto the measure...
...Among the reasons this proposal may be appealing to China critics, one stands out: It's unlikely the votes exist to defeat MFN...
...Heightening suspicions is the purchase by companies close to the Chinese government of a disused U.S...
...Indeed, for some on the Hill, China is beginning to assume a position resembling that of the Soviet Union: a threat to cherished Western traditions of liberty and democracy...
...trade deficit with China provoke protectionists and labor...
...Matthew Rees is a staff writer for The Weekly Standard...
...This is always a difficult vote," he says, "in large part because of China's continued human-rights abuses and their more than occasional practice of unfair trade...
...And conservatives may be able to link up with major labor unions to bolster the opposition to MFN...
...The Washington-based group, led by Gary Bauer, is testing anti-MFN radio ads in California and has told its state affiliates to use the MFN vote when scoring members of Congress on pro-family issues...
...back up its words with actions in order to maintain credibility with Chinese officials and with other governments...
...elections...
...Bauer recently had breakfast with 25 congressional Republicans to discuss revoking MFN...
...This year, however, members are particularly concerned by reports of illegal attempts by the Chinese government to influence American elections...
...Tim Hutchinson, a freshman MFN opponent, senses an opening...
...election...
...naval station in Long Beach, California, and of two former American ports on the Panama Canal...
...support from labor makes them less dependent on business contributions...
...But asked how he intends to vote this year on MFN renewal, the usually decisive Texan says, "It's a close call...
...worker exploitation and the $40-billion U.S...
...Buchanan gets a lot of things wrong...
...Leading the way has been the Family Research Council...
...Republicans, of course, are only half the battle in the House...
...Minority leader Richard Gephardt and whip David Bonior are both MFN opponents, as are three of the four chief deputy whips...
...Among Senate Democrats, minority leader Tom Daschle is pro-MFN, but opposing him will be Russ Feingold, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, as well as liberal stalwarts Paul Wellstone and Ted Kennedy...
...Roughly one-fourth opposed renewal last year, and that figure could more than double...
...In a recent conversation, Milton Friedman, who had just returned from Hong Kong, warned him about the Chinese government's hostility to true free-market principles...
...But the situation is equally fluid among the Democrats...
...Lee Hamilton, is a lame duck...
...A determined GOP campaign using the MFN fight to highlight failures in the administration's China policy, and showcasing the connection between Chinese money and administration policy, could pay huge political dividends...
...The majority leader is the highest-profile Republican in Congress reconsidering his support for MFN, but he's hardly alone...
...The question is whether Gingrich is prepared to lead this fight...
...In his 12 years in Congress, he's never opposed a trade-liberalization agreement, and he's always voted to renew most-favored-nation trading status with China...
...This time, he may be right...
...Noticeably absent from this list is Gingrich, a long-time advocate of MFN...
...How many House Republicans will vote against MFN...
...Among senior senators, there are rumblings about a three-month suspension, or extension, of MFN...
...The effort to revoke MFN is likely to fail this year, but it could still serve Republicans well...
...A colleague also mulling defection is House Budget Committee chairman John Kasich, who last year voted to renew but in earlier years had been an MFN opponent...
...They are less beholden to the White House...
...National Empowerment Television, the network led by conservative guru Paul Weyrich, will soon launch an anti-MFN campaign, while Pat Buchanan's columns and television appearances (including a persuasive performance on the March 23 Meet the Press) are increasingly devoted to China...
...Armey now says that "China had better give us some signals before this [MFN] vote comes up in July...
...Just how Gingrich's trip to China last week will affect his thinking on the issue remains to be seen, but the potential defections on MFN reflect a changed congressional climate...
...China hasn't cleaned up its act...
...In the leadership, Connie Mack is an MFN opponent, while most others, including majority leader Trent Lott, remain undecided...
...One result of the White House's blind commitment to MFN is that an impressive coalition of conservative activists and groups has mobilized to press for revocation...
...Big business will wage an expensive campaign to stem defections, doling out hundreds of thousands of dollars in political contributions...
...The idea would be to reopen the issue after seeing how Beijing manages the transition in Hong Kong, starting July 1, and what investigators uncover about China's attempts to influence last year's U.S...
Vol. 2 • April 1997 • No. 29
