Clinton's Social Security Fix
BARNES, FRED
Clinton's Social Security Fix by Fred Barnes On the basis of what President Clinton has revealed so far, his second term won't add much to his reputation. His top priority is a balanced budget, a...
...Adds Mike McCurry, the White House press secretary, "the problem with bold strokes is they could quickly serve as lightning rods for opposition...
...Saving Social Security on Clinton's own terms won't be easy...
...Why can't Clinton talk candidly about his strategy for saving Social Security...
...A week earlier at a White House press conference, he was even less forthright...
...In his State of the Union address on February 4, he dismissed the issue with a fleeting reference to favoring "a bipartisan process to preserve Social Security and reform Medicare for the long run...
...Just as Republicans figure any move on their part to reform Social Security would prompt demagogic Democratic attacks, Clinton fears a preemptive move by him would trigger harsh GoP criticism...
...Maybe that's the only way it can happen—through the back door...
...In Behind the Oval Office, political adviser Dick Morris tells of a conversation last August with Clinton about his rank in the hierarchy of presidential greatness...
...It's possible, but note the lack of out-front leadership by the president...
...That would be counterproductive, he thinks...
...So he prefers to wait until he's been reassured by what his aides call "confidence-building measures...
...But if he tried to now, that might jeopardize negotiations with Republicans over a balanced budget...
...It just doesn't include the creation of Social Security retirement accounts in which individuals would invest their payroll taxes in the market...
...That touches on Clinton's other reason for holding back: political survival...
...He said he favors "modest changes" that would prolong the solvency of Social Security "a little bit...
...Indeed...
...The most important of these would be a swift budget deal with Republicans...
...As it now stands, the history-making accomplishment he craves is Social Security reform...
...But at least Clinton recognizes it is necessary...
...Should he succeed, "it could do transformational things for him and the Democratic party," says Vin Weber, the Republican strategist...
...That, by itself, is a huge concession that many liberals refuse to make...
...Second, he's pushing a costly education package...
...Can Clinton pull off the big fix...
...If you go too quickly, you poison the well on the current budget," says Stephanopoulos...
...Second, the eligibility age would be raised, then indexed to rise with increases in life expectancy...
...If all goes well in the early months of his second term, he'll try to become the president who saved Social Security, from both bankruptcy and Republican privatizers...
...Of course, so did welfare reform, yet Clinton allowed the welfare entitlement to die...
...Borderline third tier," Morris informed him...
...He's eager to deal with it...
...My guess is the president will vehemently oppose any privatization attempt," says Stephanopoulos...
...There are liberal ideas Clinton might be tempted to pursue in a bid to make history: national health care (again), an ambitious stab at narrowing income inequality through tax reform, a Reichian effort to change corporate culture...
...Executive editor Fred Barnes is a regular political commentator on "CBS This Morning...
...Asked about the recent report of his administration's Advisory Council on Social Security, he declined to discuss any of its three competing recommendations for partial privatization, though he likes one of them...
...Saving Social Security without boosting the payroll tax or cutting off wealthier beneficiaries is a conservative idea...
...real...
...This revenue-raising scheme was recommended by the faction on the Advisory Council led by Robert Ball, a former commissioner of Social Security...
...George Stephanopoulos, the just-departed White House aide, says Clinton often ponders "what his special role is...
...Clinton wants to achieve reform by subterfuge...
...And won't liberals demand means testing for Social Security benefits or a hike in the employer's side of the payroll tax...
...still, Clinton broods about his place in history...
...Yet Clinton talks about it privately all the time...
...Give him credit for not biting at those...
...That's too risky...
...McCurry says it's also off-limits since it clashes with the New Deal legacy of the Democratic party...
...His top priority is a balanced budget, a goal he embraced reluctantly and only because Republicans insisted...
...If so, the president's confidence about moving to a big Social Security fix will be high...
...Are Lott and other Republicans so complaisant they'll go along without pressing vigorously for Social Security IRAs...
...It probably would...
...But even if the whole thing passes, it won't have more than a marginal impact on the public schools...
...Finally, a chunk of the money collected to pay Social Security benefits— maybe 40 percent of it—would be invested in stocks or bonds...
...The idea is that Clinton and Senate majority leader Trent Lott will stack the panel with their allies, then quietly pressure them to adopt a strong, unanimous recommendation...
...Instead, he hopes it will emerge in budget talks with Republicans...
...Now, he may have found the answer...
...Clinton is bound to oppose that, says Stephanopoulos, "because it undermines the whole idea of universal social insurance...
...For the moment, Clinton is not letting on...
...He worries about the Social Security issue," says Morris...
...It could make all that New Democrat b.s...
...In fact, investing Social Security funds in private markets is privatization...
...First, the COLA would be reduced...
...What might that be...
...However, the whole process strikes me as Clin-tonesque, which means overly clever...
...According to Morris, the announcement of the commission will stress Medicare, but the real focus will be Social Security...
...Though he has talked about a CPI change with Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, Clinton won't propose it...
...Even better would be a budget accord that includes a downward adjustment in the consumer price index and thus in the annual cost-of-living hikes in programs like Social Security...
...The next step is the creation of a bipartisan commission...
...During last year's campaign, Morris says he had to warn the president frequently not to slip and talk about Social Security in public...
Vol. 2 • February 1997 • No. 22
