THE TAX-CUT STRADDLE
BARNES, FRED
THE TAX-CUT STRADDLE by Fred Barnes IS BOB DOLE REALLY THAT SERIOUS about a big tax cut? Maybe not. Mike Murphy, the media consultant who left the campaign last week, proposed that Dole ride...
...He was largely blotted out of the news by the dustup with Saddam Hussein and Hurricane Fran...
...It’s a gamble...
...It’s your money,” he says...
...The tax cut might even pass...
...And most of those folks are probably Republicans well disposed toward Dole...
...Cuomo is puzzled by Dole’s use of other, competing subjects...
...My guess is voters will dismiss that Clinton comment as ancient history...
...With other issues on his plate, Dole is often distracted from the tax issue...
...This distinction is important...
...Far from it: A new CBS poll found only 23 percent of Americans think Dole is truly committed to slashing taxes...
...Mike Murphy, the media consultant who left the campaign last week, proposed that Dole ride into Chicago during the Democratic convention aboard a train dubbed the Tax Cut Express...
...It includes a clip from Dole’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention in which he says people shouldn’t apologize for wanting a tax cut...
...Republicans would talk up the legislation...
...The whole problem of selling a tax cut is the public’s not believing the seller is serious about it,” insists conservative strategist Jeffrey Bell...
...A few days later, Sen...
...Louis on Labor Day, he declared that he and Jack Kemp “have one big plan, just like this big arch...
...It’s not that people don’t want a tax cut, or that they don’t believe it’s possible to cut taxes and balance the budget at the same time...
...Give American families back more of their hard-earned money...
...But Scott Reed, Dole’s campaign manager, didn’t like the idea...
...John McCain of Arizona told reporters he “understands” why voters are dubious of the tax cut, and that Dole has to spell out exactly how he’ll cut spending to offset lost revenue from cutting taxes...
...Rather than the only issue, the tax cut is merely the top issue among four or five...
...Dole has yet to convince the public of his seriousness...
...Ronald Reagan did this to great effect in 1980...
...Dole could then have given a speech contrasting his 15 percent tax cut for individuals with Clinton’s meager tax reductions...
...When Dole did show up outside Chicago (by plane and car) the day before the Democratic convention, he quickly veered from selling his tax cut...
...There’s a way for Dole to convey the seriousness of his intentions on taxes...
...Dole tacticians think that if they can link the increase in drug use directly to Clinton, voters might switch...
...John Buckley, the Dole press secretary, says it’s “the message not only for Dole but for the Republican campaign this fall...
...Should Dole continue to do that, he’s not likely to gain much from the tax issue...
...Former New York governor Mario Cuomo says Dole should “not say anything else—give the tax cut everything . . . make that the whole game...
...But what has Dole got to lose...
...Post-Labor Day, when Dole got back to concentrating on the tax issue, other distractions arose...
...But while fighting drugs may be a popular issue, it’s not a cutting issue...
...Wisely, Dole doesn’t intend to do that, since it would be another distraction from the tax cut itself...
...It doesn’t attract new supporters...
...Dole’s pollsters are looking for another issue because they don’t like what they’re hearing from focus groups and voter surveys: that Americans don’t think the Dole tax cut can be paid for with spending cuts...
...Spencer Abraham of Michigan suggested he introduce the Dole tax cut as a bill in Congress this fall...
...Spending and taxes are not the only places where we need strong presidential leadership,” he said...
...Several campaign advisers—notably co-chairman Vin Weber and policy aide Kevin Stach—want to air simple, uncluttered ads of Dole talking directly into the camera about the need to cut taxes...
...Cutting taxes is supposed to be the centerpiece of the Dole campaign, the one issue that animates, energizes, and defines the Dole candidacy...
...As luck would have it, there’s a vehicle for Dole to convey his seriousness about cutting taxes: paid media, funded at saturation level...
...And his main TV ad airing the first two weeks of September talks about “a tax cut of $1,600 for the typical family...
...As nice as that sounds, it’s not quite what’s happening...
...It’s by waging a relentless, near-maniacal, one-note campaign on cutting taxes— to the exclusion of everything else...
...Following the Republican convention in August, he spent several days denouncing President Clinton for allowing teenage drug use to soar and a few more days on foreign policy...
...Sipple contended there is “more power” in issues dealing with moral decline in America...
...Dole is hedging his bet on taxes, and Democrats have sensed his ambivalence...
...Hearings would be held...
...Dole said no to the stunt...
...On a campaign trip, Sen...
...Dole’s pollsters and ousted media consultant Don Sipple prefer the anti-narcotics approach, if only because it generates strong sentiment...
...In St...
...That’s effective stuff, but the Dole campaign plans to switch ads in mid-September and play up the drug issue, particularly rising drug use among teenagers...
...He left the campaign along with Murphy on September 5, but it wasn’t because he wanted to downplay cutting taxes...
...Dole is wary of this tactic, even though his stump speeches do emphasize the 15 percent cut...
...They envision a TV ad centered on a 1992 interview with Clinton on MTV in which he jokingly says he wished he had inhaled pot...
Vol. 2 • September 1996 • No. 1
