Don't Run, Colin, Don't!
BARNES, FRED
Don't Run, Colin, Don't! by Fred Barnes Colin Powell tells a funny but humbling story about his post-military life in My American Journey, his best-selling autobiography. While driving an old...
...Hiking the minimum wage...
...True, candidates often develop ideas and themes while campaigning in the months before the first primary...
...Powell's positions are frequently self-cancelling...
...They claim he's more conservative than he's sounded...
...From the moment he announces, the media will magnify every word he says...
...Room, however, isn't the issue...
...I told myself," he writes, "Mr...
...Powell's supporters haven't made the case for his candidacy...
...The other is that Powell might define Republicanism...
...This is bound to cause trouble...
...And that goes for any Republican with a realistic prospect of winning the nomination (Dole, Phil Gramm, Lamar Alexander)-but not Powell...
...If he alters a position, even minutely, or changes his emphasis, even slightly, reporters will pounce...
...The same applies to politics, especially at the presidential level...
...He would never get along with Newt Gingrich...
...Powell is assured of one thing: a big job in the next Republican administration...
...He's for affirmative action but not preferences, despite the organic connection between the two...
...Dole has come to terms with Gingrich...
...What Republicans need to defeat Bill Clinton next year is party unity...
...Powell's noisiest ally, Bill Bennett, is an intellectual giant among Republicans, but he comes across as a political hack reading talking points when he touts Powell...
...Sure, Powell will take some flak as a candidate, Bennett concedes...
...He's for the Republican version of Medicare reform, but only because he hasn't seen the alternatives...
...But it's clear he hasn't thought through those views on domestic and economic issues...
...Powell has many gifts of leadership- commanding presence, no-nonsense speaking style, sterling character, striking likability-but these wouldn't automatically make him an effective candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 1996...
...He has a great fallback position...
...Powell won't have this luxury...
...I assume he wants to woo GOP voters, since he's said from the outset that he's not a Democrat and would rather run as a Republican than as an independent...
...So Powell drove away, looking for a gas station...
...Citing polls showing him as the only Republican who beats Clinton, they argue he's a sure winner...
...Gingrich is not only the GOP congressional leader, he's the soul of the party...
...He's for cutting taxes, but maybe for raising them in some circumstances...
...We'll go out to Iowa and talk about target prices, hog prices, corn prices," Dole says, a semi-grin on his face...
...I do have views on most of the pressing issues out there," Powell assured David Frost...
...True, but that's not an argument for making him the nominee...
...In his case, the opposite is true...
...He's against taxpayer-funded abortions-well, for now, anyway...
...There are two things Gingrich hates about the presidential race (other than that he's not running...
...I'm still finding myself," Powell told Larry King on CNN...
...If not that, he's a good bet for secretary of state, a post for which he is immensely qualified...
...Of course we want him in our party...
...One of his 13 rules for life, listed in My American Journey, suggests he ought to run: "Don't let adverse facts stand in the way of a good decision...
...Powell is a hero who is respected by Americans, Bennett said...
...He's for a new health care system, though he adds, "I'm not sure exactly how to do it...
...He'll be seen differently-and less favorably-once he announces...
...By getting in, he might...
...Whether Powell should be the GOP nominee is...
...He knows Powell isn't prepared to do what presidential candidates must: talk with specificity on issue after issue...
...Before he found one, he got caught in another traffic jam and ran out of gas again...
...A party with Buchanan, Morry Taylor, and Arlen Specter as presidential candidates "can sure as heck make room for Colin Powell," he said on Face the Nation...
...He doesn't know enough about the details of the GOP tax cut to judge it, he said on CBS This Morning...
...But he's "taken unfriendly fire before, real unfriendly fire...
...The only explanation is he didn't understand how all that would be received...
...This was a big mistake...
...Bob Dole insists Powell is welcome in the race...
...Not to be cruel, but he sounds like Admiral James Stockdale, Ross Perot's running mate in 1992 who confessed to being "out of ammo" on some domestic issues...
...But these are polls on Powell the general and war hero...
...If the GOP nominee gets a one-on-one shot at Clinton, chances are he'll win...
...But President Powell would be under enormous pressure from establishment Republicans and the media to thwart Gingrich's conservative agenda...
...The worst place to do this is in a presidential race...
...Powell, becoming a civilian is going to be harder than you expected...
...He'd be a weak Republican nominee...
...If so, he's got a lot of rowing back to do, a process that will harm his reputation as a guy who stands behind what he says...
...He's not ready...
...That one he's "still studying...
...Powell also seems politically tone deaf in talking about issues...
...While driving an old Volvo on the Washington Beltway during rush hour, he ran out of gas...
...But opponents and the press would have a field day poking holes in them...
...As clumsily as he talks about domestic issues, Powell discusses foreign and defense issues with considerable confidence...
...Gramm and Alexander would if elected...
...One is that Buchanan might define conservatism...
...A traffic officer happened along and squirted a half-pint of gas in his tank...
...So why would he immediately declare himself pro-choice, pro-gun control, and dubious of the Christian Right, thus alienating the conservative base of the party...
...In fact, there's a strong case that he shouldn't run...
...Powell is fuzzy on most issues...
...By staying out of the race, he can't lose...
...Bennett zinged critics who say Powell isn't conservative enough...
...But this works for those stumping in relative obscurity, as Jimmy Carter was in 1975...
...He also says America is a "racist society," which argues for preferences to compensate for past bias...
...He, more than anyone, sets the agenda...
...Trouble would ensue...
...Powell shouldn't let a few favorable facts force a bad decision...
...By declaring himself a "Rockefeller Republican," Powell cast himself as out of sync with the Gingrich revolution...
...If nominated, he'd provoke a breakaway third-party campaign, perhaps by Pat Buchanan, perhaps by another pro-lifer, whose effect would be to draw Republican votes and re-elect Clinton...
...My guess is he'll be the running mate of whatever Republican wins the presidential nomination...
...Resisting the temptation to run, given the polls and the pressure, may be more than Powell can do...
...Maybe he likes them that way...
...Please...
Vol. 1 • November 1995 • No. 9
