That Crazy Switchcraft
Caldwell, Christopher
That Crazy Switchcraft by Christopher Caldwell This message brought to you by the Republican National Committee: Two months ago, Mike Foster was an obscure Democrat in the Louisiana State Senate....
...Gene is not going to switch," says a close Taylor friend...
...He had to choose between Foster and fellow Rep...
...Condit is a Democrat and wants to be," says a senior GOP staffer...
...Most of the recent poaching talk has focused on the 23 members (Parker's one) of the Blue Dog Coalition, an informal caucus that meets for coffee and doughnuts every Wednesday morning at 8:30 in the office of California Democrat Gary Condit...
...This message brought to you by the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee: In the first months of the 104th Congress, three Democrats in the House-Greg Laughlin of Texas, Billy Tauzin of Louisiana, and Nathan Deal of Georgia-joined the Republican majority...
...Condit, the most conservative of the California Democrats, represents one-time House bigwig Tony Coelho's district and thinks Republicans could win there...
...There's a lot of frustration with the direction and leadership of the party, with its control by liberals," Condit says...
...Ralph Hall of Texas, whom many assumed more likely to retire than switch (like fellow Texas Dem Charlie Wilson), has lately come to the top of the switch list...
...Others have switched with similar motivations: Greg Laughlin was going to face a tough race against '94 Republican foe Jim Deats...
...John Boehner, chairman of the House Republican Conference, is the point man for the Hall recruitment effort...
...The consensus among switchers is that he would have a more difficult time in his liberal state than the Southerners have...
...But there's been no formal invite from the Republicans, and switching is not my priority, not my intention...
...Once Parker switches, Rhodes says, "you can expect between 5 and 50 Democrats at the state and county level in Mississippi to switch parties...
...Traficant balked at their invitation, saying he would be more interested in running as an independent...
...Geren, a Lone Star veteran of Lloyd Bentsen's organization, voted aye on 13 of the 15 Contract with America measures...
...Democrats threatened to allow a primary challenge to Nathan Deal next year, while Republicans pondered running ex-senator Mack Mattingly against him...
...But "over the years, they've developed a pretty good relationship...
...And Gephardt would find it harder to run roughshod with threats of what would happen when they got the House back...
...they are merely swearing allegiance to a flag they have been saluting for a while...
...Hayes has fed speculation that he might run as an independent or third-party candidate...
...Foster won handily among Republicans and independents and came within 4 percentage points of winning a plurality of the registered Democrats he'd just abandoned...
...Parker is waiting out November's state elections in Mississippi...
...Mel Reynolds has been jailed for statutory rape, the Democratic number is down to 199, and aggressive recruitment by Republicans is over...
...He, too, has talked about the independent route...
...The Democratic party structure has disintegrated in Mississippi," says Parker chief of staff Arthur Rhodes...
...The middle 40 or 50 percent are independent voters and can swing any election...
...A top congressional staffer says that Jim Traficant of Ohio-who is not, incidentally, a Coalition member-met with emissaries of the GOP leadership with the speaker's blessing...
...The party label hurts, not helps, and a lot of good local candidates are running as Mike Parker Democrats...
...Now the question is, who might be next...
...There's not a formal mating ritual," says a source close to Boehner...
...It was a conscious decision, approved by the RNC and Newt, to drive the number of Democrats below 200," says a leadership staffer...
...His district-where Jim Wright ruled for 34 years-has grown steadily more conservative...
...He'd like to switch, but he's looking for a way to do it...
...All the Democrats in the Coalition have been approached by individual Republicans, but the time of concerted leadership efforts to win converts through the promise of committee seats-Laughlin, for example, got Ways and Means-has passed...
...Geren's staff says it's "100 percent certain" he'll still be a Democrat after the January 4 Texas filing deadline, but a switcher's staffer says Geren met weeks ago in Fort Worth with his finance director and other advisers to discuss the viability of crossing over...
...Mississippi Democrat Mike Parker makes no bones that he's the next to cross over: "It's only a matter of time," he says...
...Collin Peterson of Minnesota is also sympathetic, but can't come across...
...Now that Illinois Rep...
...He's like Geren," says one newly minted Republican...
...I've been approached by both sides wanting me to switch...
...But he's concerned-we've got a good candidate we're going to send against him...
...Ideologically, there's little separating Taylor from Hayes or Parker, but he has made attacks on Republicans a campaign staple and has become an outright enemy of fellow Mississippian Sen...
...Another puts Geren at "more than 50 percent to switch...
...his staff did some research and discovered that Hayes and Fields vote the same way 3 percent of the time...
...Same for Mississippi's Gene Taylor...
...Democratic enlistment, however, is not...
...He'd feel he was being welcomed by Trent, and he doesn't want that...
...Last week he won his state's non-partisan gubernatorial primary and is considered a shoo-in when Louisianans cast their votes in November's general election...
...It doesn't matter: He's no fonder of the Republicans than of the Democrats...
...He chose Foster...
...Cleo Fields...
...He has a long Democratic pedigree and may find the decision more gut-wrenching...
...Ohio Rep...
...Traficant says the meetings concerned one of his favorite good-government measures, a "burden-of-proof provision to curb IRS abuses...
...Despite the coyness, Hayes has had serious conversations with Tauzin about switching...
...Parker, described as "practically family," has been assured royal treatment...
...Trent Lott in the process...
...I would have equal ease in switching parties," he says, while adding that he has "no immediate plans...
...In September, he switched parties...
...Once that happened, an important psychological barrier would be breached...
...Democrats, especially those in the South, are defecting to the Republican party in unprecedented numbers...
...Bill Brewster of Oklahoma, now the lone Democrat in what was previously a solidly Democratic state, is a little less likely to switch...
...Foster's stunning win in the Louisiana governor's race shook up Louisiana's Jimmy Hayes (also 13 of 15 on the Contract...
...Condit and fellow prospect Pete Geren of Texas are a good measure of how far American politics has shifted...
Vol. 1 • November 1995 • No. 8
