Survey Says? Little New
Ladd, Everett Carll
Survey Says? Little New by Everett Carll Ladd "Not much has changed is hardly an exciting political story. Therefore, we in the American public are repeatedly told that things have changed very...
...Hart and Teeter asked then about 10 of the 14 issues they included in their May 1996 poll...
...reducing defense spending (54 in favor, 42 against...
...in the six taken in 1996, Clinton and Gore have been up by two points-a swing toward Clinton, yes, but far from an earthshaking one...
...This stability of opinion and mood is persuasively demonstrated by the research of pollsters Peter Hart and Robert Teeter, conducted for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal...
...The present margin, according to the May survey, is 17 points (54 to 37...
...Pluralities said the Democrats would do better only on abortion, education, health care, Medicare, and the environment...
...This was NBC/Wall Street Journal's 31st asking of that question since Clinton took office, and the responses have remained relatively unchanging, particularly when compared with opinion about previous presidents...
...Most vice-presidential possibilities aren't well enough known to have any effect whatsoever...
...But if the country hasn't shifted against Republican policy positions, isn't it nevertheless true that President Clinton is much stronger today than he was before...
...Everett Carll Ladd is president of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research...
...Dole/Powell question: In the five taken in 1995, Dole and Powell led by an average of three points...
...At this supposed low point in Republican fortunes, pluralities gave the GOP the edge in nine of the 14 categories...
...Therefore, we in the American public are repeatedly told that things have changed very much indeed...
...So GOP partisans and the media alike should relax a bit as they attempt to interpret the campaign polls...
...reducing social spending (54 against, 42 in favor...
...Actually, no...
...On "controlling government spending," they gained 15 points...
...last year, it was only one point in June, two points in July...
...When the May survey threw in the names of Vice President Al Gore and potential Republican vice-presidential nominee Colin Powell, the Clinton lead dropped to four points-a useful reminder of how soft the numbers are, when a modest plus for the GOP in the vice-presidential slot can trigger a substantial swing...
...on health care, they lost 8. But on most issues, the difference, if any, was minuscule...
...And on only five of those 20 did majorities come down on the liberal side: banning assault weapons (57 percent in favor, 42 percent against...
...For example, Gallup conducted an "opinion referendum" in April that asked respondents how, if "on election day this year you could vote on key issues as well as candidates," they would vote on 26 propositions, including the balanced-budget amendment, school prayer, capital punishment, and the assault-weapons ban...
...It is true that Clinton leads his opponent Bob Dole by (seemingly) large margins in "trial heats...
...His average approval rating in the 31 surveys is 49, just three points lower than his current number...
...The list was a balanced one, ranging from crime, taxes, and foreign policy to welfare, education, and Medicare...
...For the last several months, the prevailing view in political and journalistic circles has been that the public, warmly disposed to the Republican revolution on Election Day 1994 and briefly thereafter, has turned dramatically against the GOP But nothing of the kind has occurred...
...Ample other data, too, contradict the conventional Beltway wisdom that, after a year and a half of Gingrich & Company, the public has swung against the Republicans...
...On these, they found no change: Not only did the Republicans lead on 7 of the 10 issues in both October 1994 and May 1996, they did so by virtually identical margins...
...A few of the propositions, such as physician-assisted suicide and "selling off public lands," do not fit naturally on a liberal-conservative continuum, but 20 of the 26 do...
...Though it makes for a less interesting story, it is remarkable how little public sentiment has shifted over the past two years...
...In the May survey, 52 percent said they approved of Clinton as president...
...The philosophical realignment that has brought the country to a more conservative position seems locked in, and the story of Clinton's popularity remains what it has been throughout his presidency: His numbers are fair to middling and exceptionally stable...
...But even here, the conventional wisdom of a big shift to Clinton should be questioned...
...On most of the 15 propositions that the conservative side carried-term limits, a reduction in government agencies, school choice, etc.-it did so overwhelmingly...
...In their national survey of May 10-14, Hart and Teeter asked respondents which political party would do a better job on 14 separate issues...
...and banning all abortions except to save the life of the mother (56 against, 42 in favor...
...Clinton's approval rating ranges from highs of 56 in December 1993 and 60 in January 1994 to lows of 41 in June 1993 and 43 in November 1994...
...Consider also 11 surveys, taken from last April to the present, that have posed the Clinton/Gore vs...
...raising the minimum wage (83 in favor, 15 against...
...Most striking is a comparison of the current findings to those of mid-October 1994, a mere three weeks before voters sent Republican majorities to both houses of Congress, for the first time in 40 years...
...And while Dole has yet to make the sale to this year's swing voters-the decisive bloc-he is very much in the running...
Vol. 1 • June 1996 • No. 39
