The Dole Next Time
REES, MATTHEW
The Dole Next Time By Matthew Rees Senate majority leader Bob Dole isn't the only Republican running a campaign from the Senate floor. The race to succeed him as Senate Republican leader won't...
...When Nickles was 13, his father killed himself, and inheritance taxes forced the sale of part of the family business-an episode that helped foster Nickles's deep religious convictions and his anti-government fervor...
...Lott holds the number-two position in the Senate, has been in Washington eight years longer than Nickles, has a reputation for political and legislative skill, and is a fixture on political talk shows...
...senator-the youngest Republican ever to reach that height...
...He came to Washington on the coattails of Ronald Reagan and the New Right and has consistently pushed a conservative social agenda...
...The candidates don't admit to running, and the votes won't be tallied till December...
...Unlike the vice-presidential contest, the GOP leadership race won't receive much attention over the next six months, and the candidates' surrogates won't be trading public insults...
...He broke ranks in 1994 to challenge Sen...
...Nickles shouldn't be underestimated, though...
...The maneuvering isn't limited to those seeking the top job...
...Though the senator is officially mum about his intentions, his political action committee has doled out $115,000, and he has campaigned for eight Senate Republican challengers...
...Two years later Nickles became a U.S...
...If this frustration persists, he's likely to run and to win support from the Old Bulls...
...He's been an outspoken opponent of abortion and led the fight against Joycelyn Elders, the Clinton administration's loquacious surgeon general, and Henry Foster, nominated to succeed her...
...Nickles, like Dole, has spent most of his adult life in politics...
...Cochran unleashed a flurry of activity in late April by announcing he wouldn't run for reelection as chairman of the Republican Conference, the number-three position in the GOP leadership...
...If that should worry anyone, it's Lott, who at this early stage is favored over his closest competitor, Nickles...
...Dole is Nickles's most prominent advocate...
...Connie Mack of Florida, who as conference secretary is one notch below Cochran in the party hierarchy, has all but locked up Cochran's job...
...Ever since Dole declared he would run for president, senators have been positioning themselves for the leadership contest...
...Lott has taken an active role on countless issues, most recently telecommunications...
...But there has been griping among Senate Republicans that he is too eager to sacrifice principle to bring home the bacon for Mississippi...
...Two issues-taxes and Bosnia-illustrate their differences...
...and Thad Cochran, departing chairman of the Republican Conference ("I may be a candidate for leader...
...Conrad Burns of Montana...
...Most, if not all, of this group would support Lott over Nickles...
...In his rise through Senate Republican ranks, he bested two better-known colleagues, Pete Domenici of New Mexico and John McCain of Arizona, for leadership positions...
...The race to succeed him as Senate Republican leader won't generate many headlines...
...Don Nickles, chairman of the Senate Republican Policy Committee ("I have an interest in becoming majority leader...
...Nickles has moderated some during his time in Washington, but he told the Dole campaign it was wrong to label Pat Buchanan an "extremist...
...But as much as some senators like Nickles's easygoing approach, it may be a drawback in a head-on race with Lott...
...Nickles's penchant for policy (he sponsored a popular alternative to the Clinton health-care plan) and Lott's penchant for publicity have prompted speculation the race will boil down to workhorse versus showhorse...
...Yet the outcome will heavily influence the post-election Republican agenda, and it will fall to the winner to marshal support for a President Dole-or to mobilize opposition to a reelected President Clinton...
...Paul Coverdell of Georgia is the favorite to succeed Mack, though also running is Sen...
...Both had difficult upbringings...
...Nickles would not be an aggressive leader," warns conservative guru Paul Weyrich, who says the Oklahoman has gone from being a "cutting-edge conservative" to a "defender of moderate Republicans...
...When Dole announced he would not oppose the deployment to Bosnia but would support the troops, Nickles met with him privately to say he opposed the deployment, then labored with other opponents to craft an alternative resolution...
...Questions can be indirect- "I'm curious to know what you think my role ought to be in the leadership"-and endorsements vague...
...And Sen...
...Nickles backed Dole early for president in 1988 and 1996 and supported him for majority leader in 1984...
...Campaigning for the leadership is a one-on-one affair, with senators privately seeking their colleagues' support...
...But when Norquist sought Nickles's support last year, the senator told him the two-thirds rule "would make it too difficult to raise taxes...
...He entered the Oklahoma Senate in 1979 when he was 29...
...And like Buchanan, Nickles doesn't shy from inserting religion into his political rhetoric...
...While Nickles was putting himself through college at Oklahoma State, he and his wife lived in a trailer and worked as janitors cleaning barber shops and a Kentucky Fried Chicken...
...They have almost a father/son relationship...
...This is isn't credible...
...Alan Simpson for the whip's job, and Capitol Hill chatter has it that he's running for leader regardless of Dole's fate...
...By comparison, Nickles has virtually no profile outside the Senate...
...He was able to do this by planting one foot in the camp of the Old Bulls-veteran legislators who eschew confrontation and conflict-and the other in the camp of the more conservative and confrontational younger set...
...In the event of a Dole victory, the likely candidates are Trent Lott, Senate majority whip ("I fully intend to run for leader...
...Lott is a cosponsor of legislation, masterminded by conservative activist Grover Norquist, that would require any tax increase to be approved by a two-thirds vote of Congress...
...Let the jockeying begin...
...In his 15 years there, six in the Republican leadership, his most lasting achievements-deregulating natural gas and requiring Congress to abide by the nation's laws-aren't exactly the stuff of legend...
...Up or out has always been my attitude," Lott said in November...
...This reluctance to challenge Senate procedure won't win Nickles many fans on the right, but senators appreciate his instinctive deference...
...By contrast, on the day former presidents George Bush and Gerald Ford announced their support for the Bosnia deployment, Lott publicly declared his opposition, then underscored it by appearing on the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer- all without first informing his boss, Dole...
...The secret ballot means senators sometimes promise their support to more than one candidate, so surprise outcomes are common...
...If Dole loses, then declares he wants to remain Republican leader, neither Nickles nor Cochran will challenge him...
...Lott is a different story...
...indeed, Nickles is the closest thing the Senate has to a Dole prot?g...
...Meanwhile, Cochran is frustrated and fears the GOP is "on the way to becoming irrelevant...
...Even so, because Lott and Nickles share a solidly conservative ideology (both received a perfect score of 100 from the American Conservative Union in 1994), the contest will ultimately come down to style...
...Their alliance is less a function of ideology than of style...
...That will hardly appeal to the 11 Senate Republicans who served in the House with Lott during his successful eight-year tenure as minority whip...
Vol. 1 • May 1996 • No. 35
