Good News for Bob Dole
Ladd, Everett Carll
Good News for Bob Dole by Everett Carll Ladd Now that Republican voters have said rather emphatically that they want Bob Dole to be their party's nominee, what does the race for the White House...
...A year ago, much of the political community saw the president in deep trouble and a likely loser...
...A March 8-10 ABC/Post poll showed the Democrats favored by a larger margin-8 percentage points- but this poll is an outlier, and there is reason to discount it...
...For example, only once in eight soundings since January 1994 has the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found a plurality saying that Clinton deserves reelection...
...Overall, the GOP's position looks significantly stronger today than it did during the 1980s and early 1990s...
...What's more, Clinton's ratings are remarkably unvarying...
...Good News for Bob Dole by Everett Carll Ladd Now that Republican voters have said rather emphatically that they want Bob Dole to be their party's nominee, what does the race for the White House look like...
...In Gallup polls taken from January 1993 through February 1996, an average of 48 percent of adult Americans said they approved of his handling of the presidency...
...The character issue has dogged Clinton throughout his presidency...
...It's just hard to measure a decision before most voters have made up their minds...
...Despite the Republicans' success in presidential elections in the 1980s, Democrats routinely enjoyed a large lead on the congressional vote question-averaging 15 points in Gallup surveys...
...Americans aren't "anti-government," but when asked, they say they want government slimmed down and power devolved from Washington to the states...
...Turning to the parties' comparative standing, the downward blip in Republican approval many survey organizations recorded at the end of 1995 has now largely dissipated...
...Similarly, only 40 percent thought "honest and trustworthy" fit him, and 44 percent thought "shares your values" described him...
...Finally, and perhaps most important, the realignment of public sentiment that has been occurring since the 1970s on role-of-government questions shows no sign of reversal...
...The CBS/Times survey also asked respondents whether they thought that "government should do more to solve national problems" or that "government is doing too many things better left to business and individuals...
...Even with these caveats, however, the structure of this year's presidential contest favors the Republicans...
...The GOP may yet muff the opportunity it has been given...
...Every poll shows Clinton besting Dole...
...And in 1992, an end-of-March Gallup survey showed Bush leading Clinton by 18 points...
...Whenever an incumbent president is seeking reelection, his standing with voters is critical...
...61 percent said it didn't apply...
...The latter position was picked by roughly two-thirds (60-32 percent...
...Other data, however, point in the opposite direction, and when the whole range of findings is considered, Clinton's electoral prospects have not significantly improved...
...Now, it's the Republicans who are thought to be struggling...
...Back in April 1976, just 40 percent chose less government...
...In 1980, an early January Gallup survey had Jimmy Carter leading Ronald Reagan by roughly two to one, and a Harris survey by even more than that...
...Most recently, in mid-January 1996, 41 percent thought he merited reelection, 49 percent that he did not...
...Bill Clinton now recognizes that the country's philosophic drift is counter to the predominant stance of his party, and he has struggled with considerable skill to accommodate the prevailing national views at least rhetorically...
...I noted in these pages in December that early poll trial heats are simply not to be taken seriously as predictors...
...No modern president other than Richard Nixon has ranked lower in honesty and trust...
...Much is bound to happen between now and November 5 to shape the election...
...Other measures show him even weaker...
...When CBS News and the New York Times asked in their late-February 1996 survey, Would you "rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services," by two to one (61-30 percent) the public said less government...
...A third party or independent candidacy also could siphon off anti-Clinton votes, aiding the president's reelection- much as Ross Perot ensured his 1992 election...
...Margins vary, but in some recent polls they are large-17 points in the ABC News/Washington Post survey of March 8-10...
...The comparative standing of the major parties is another key...
...In mid-January, Gallup found just 34 percent saying that the phrase "keeps his promises" applied to Bill Clinton...
...Since January 1995, for example, Clinton's lowest approval percentage in a Gallup survey has been 44, his highest 53...
...Everett Carll Ladd is director of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research...
...I'm not finding fault with Gallup-other organizations got much the same results...
...Bill Clinton's approval ratings have been relatively low throughout his presidency...
...But the contest is about to enter its second round, where the matchup is Dole vs...
...Clinton...
...Despite surface appearances, Dole should be considered the favorite to win the presidency...
...In a CBS News/New York Times poll taken in mid-January, only 34 percent agreed that Clinton "says what he really believes most of the time," while 59 percent selected the alternative "he says what he thinks most people want to hear...
...In late February of this year, 48 percent said they would vote Democratic (Gallup survey), 46 percent Republican...
...Lots of evidence from past elections shows how ephemeral trial-heat findings can be, right up to the last six weeks of the campaign...
...And voters' preferences as to policy direction are a third...
...Still, limiting government's reach is the Republicans' agenda, not the Democrats...
...At best, he has been unable to raise his support more than a few points above 50 percent...
...In late October 1994, just days before the Republicans won the House vote by a 7-point margin, an ABC/Post poll recorded a 7-point Democratic edge...
...Just before the 1994 vote, however, Gallup found the Republicans pulling into a dead heat with the Democrats: Forty-six percent on November 2-6 said they would vote Republican, 46 percent Democratic...
...We don't know for sure how soon-to-be presidential nominee Dole will fare down the campaign stretch...
...This puts him among the least popular of modern presidents, together with Nixon (48 percent composite approval score), Carter (47 percent), Ford (47 percent), and Truman (42 percent...
...In fact, Republican House candidates got 53.4 percent of the two-party popular vote in House races...
...In 1988, a late July Gallup poll put Michael Dukakis ahead of George Bush by 17 percentage points...
...Subsequent polls show no falling off in Republican strength...
...We see this in the generic congressional vote question, Which party's candidate would you be inclined to back in your congressional district...
...What is possible at this stage of a campaign, however, is to explore the election's underlying structure...
...His ratings in individual surveys deviate from his average less than those of any other modern president...
...The latest findings come during a primary season in which competing Republicans have been beating up on one another, while the president has had a free ride...
...Still, we already know enough to declare a favorite...
Vol. 1 • March 1996 • No. 27
