President Powell?
KRISTOL, WILLIAM
Elections President Powell? by William Kristol Suddenly, Bob Dole s nomination no longer seems inevitable. Having won less than a quarter of the vote in the Iowa straw poll, he now trails Bill...
...Having won less than a quarter of the vote in the Iowa straw poll, he now trails Bill Clinton in national surveys...
...If Gingrich were a viable presidential candidate, there might be less of an opening for Powell...
...But maybe not...
...But Gingrich will continue to be preoccupied by the Hill for the next two months-and by then, if Powell is in, it will be hard for Gingrich to justify launching so high-risk a candidacy...
...On the other hand: Reagan was retired...
...News poll, already say they want Powell to run for president...
...Yes-especially if Powell throws a few bones to conservatives by saying the right things about personal responsibility, no new taxes, and limited government...
...A poor showing in the November 17 Republican presidential debate, combined with, say, a third-place finish in the accompanying Florida straw poll, would mark the beginning of the end...
...Would a Powell presidency be a good thing...
...Gingrich won't be...
...In any event, a Powell candidacy may never happen...
...As Dole falters, all Powell has to do is to shed his cloying coyness about the pursuit of elective office, and temper his pundit-pleasing disdain for political parties...
...The risk is that a Powell presidency could thwart hopes for a fundamental transformation of the Republican party and American politics...
...And a (presumably) huge victory by Powell, running as a Republican, would expand and solidify the emerging Republican majority...
...Focus groups suggest that the age issue is beginning to bite, and the return of a campaign contribution to a group of gay Republicans indicates a touch of panic...
...So, the ideological opacity of a Powell presidency notwithstanding, it could be a useful way station on the road to a lasting conservative realignment...
...The impetus to radical reform of the welfare state might well peter out...
...But conservatives will likely remain divided between Phil Gramm and Pat Buchanan-whereas moderate Republicans will abandon Pete Wilson and Lamar Alexander to close ranks behind Powell...
...But the pros and experts are usually wrong...
...As the GOP agenda sinks ever deeper into the Senate's bog, Senator Dole's downhill trajectory could accelerate...
...Gingrich's ideological victory in 1994 may have established the groundwork for a far less ideological election in 1996-especially given the absence of any candidate like Ronald Reagan, who commanded both ideological loyalty and personal admiration...
...The idea presents both risks and opportunities for enthusiasts of the revolution of 1994...
...If I had to bet today on one person for the Republican presidential nomination, I'd put my money on Colin Powell...
...Maybe the Dole campaign will shake off these troubles and cruise to victory...
...Powell would be to Gingrich what Bush was to Reagan...
...And many conservative primary voters will reassure themselves that a Gingrich-led House, and a Senate with an increased GOP majority, will continue in any event to move public policy in the right direction...
...And lots of reasonably conservative primary voters aren't as ideological as some in Washington like to think...
...News tells us that "political pros in both parties think he won't run...
...A Gingrich-led Republican Congress could continue to push domestic policy to the right under the umbrella of a Powell presidency...
...It won't be easy for his opponents to paint General Powell, Ronald Reagan's national security adviser, as a typical moderate Republican squish...
...A Powell administration would be centrist and establishmentarian...
...Can a moderate win the nomination of a conservative, newly-energized, Reagan-Gingrich Republican party...
...He will have to move, with all deliberate speed, to make clear both his interest in the presidency, and his judgment (with all suitable rhetorical qualifications and modifications) that his rightful home is the Republican party...
...So Powell wins the Republican nomination, picks a pro-life running mate to obviate a third-party right-to-life effort, and defeats Clinton...
...By Christmas, Bob Dole could be out of the Presidential race, graciously yielding to the man who will have emerged as leader of the Republican field: Colin Powell...
...Still, Powell is a moderate, and will present himself more or less as such-"a fiscal conservative, with a social conscience," as he says in his new book...
...The mere example of an up-by-the-bootstraps black Republican war hero as president could have a broadly conservative cultural effect...
...There would, of course, be conservative opposition to Powell...
...At that point, Powell will be the only potential Republican nominee who easily beats Clinton in the polls-and the candidate whose biography, character, and personal deportment make a particularly attractive and pointed contrast to Clinton...
...This may be wishful conservative thinking...
...Half of all Republicans, in a recent U.S...
...In any case, remember: Bill Clinton will be running in 1996 as a me-too Republican, muting the ideological contrast Republicans were able to draw with him and the Democrats in 1994...
...The New York Times writes that "experts consider it unlikely that the general, a moderate on many social issues, could win the Republican nomination...
Vol. 1 • September 1995 • No. 1
