CLIMATE COMPLEXITY
O'NEILL, DENNIS
Correspondence CLIMATE COMPLEXITY JIM MANZI’S “The Icarus Syndrome” (September 8) is one of the best pieces I have read anywhere on global warming. Manzi incorporates a discussion of...
...An analogy is useful...
...We stood behind barricades as the Blob in a large bucket was displayed (it was a little scary) and now-middle-aged teenagers reenacting the movie scene came running and screaming out of the movie theater...
...Given the complex nature of global climate, the age of the earth, and the relative lack of accurate data, forecasting anything meaningful or useful using the relative paucity of data on global climate with relatively poor models is like trying to predict the future levels of equity markets using about a day’s worth of price data from equity markets...
...SECULAR CONSERVATISM JAMES GRANT (“Prey for Religion,” September 22) has it exactly right when he poses the question, “Just what, exactly, is secular about pandering to Islamists...
...CHARLES J. CERNANSKY Stamford, Conn...
...The fi rst possible answer is “to glorify yourself and your kind...
...LIFE IN THE LAST FRONTIER I THOUGHT JESSICA GAVORA’S article on Gov...
...What is needed is not a religious revival in the West to counter jihadist terrorism...
...Palin’s experiences on the basketball court and her Alaska upbringing are two factors that helped make Palin the person she is today...
...Sarah Palin’s experience playing high school basketball (“Game Changer,” September 15) was excellent and very well written...
...They asked, “What’s your excuse for living...
...The second is “to glorify the Creator of everything and of everybody...
...PHOENIXVILLE PRIDE IMAGINE MY SURPRISE and pleasure at discovering Shawn Macomber’s “Alien Nation” article about my hometown hero, the Blob (September 15...
...Few today are able to see that it is the second answer that best achieves happiness...
...When I was in fourth grade near Sandy Spring, Maryland, none of my peers was very discreet...
...BRIAN STEWART Fort Benning, Ga...
...September 8), Andrew Ferguson asks three times, “What do we live for...
...DENNIS O’NEILL Chicago, Ill...
...Financial models to predict equity prices are based upon rational expectations theory and have been used by the private sector to build real-world models upon which billions of dollars are risked every day...
...CHRIS WINTERS Hudson, Ohio...
...Manzi incorporates a discussion of probability and statistics into his assessment of how to proceed with global warming policy...
...Correspondence CLIMATE COMPLEXITY JIM MANZI’S “The Icarus Syndrome” (September 8) is one of the best pieces I have read anywhere on global warming...
...Lest I be misread, I am opposed to moral relativism, socialism, “a cult of the self,” indiscriminate tolerance, and an undermining of patriotism...
...Given the rising tide of religious hysteria in the East—and the relativism, secular and religious, by which it is excused in the West—this would be a welcome change in what promises to become an even more dangerous world...
...There are only two possible answers, two possible excuses for living...
...There is great self-interest motivating the development, testing, and application of these models, and their complexity is not nearly as great as global climate models...
...PIERS WOODRIFF Somerset, Va...
...Global climate models are not nearly as well developed nor tested as rational expectations models have been...
...Though I am not myself a religious believer, or perhaps because I am not, I feel a fi rm attachment to the “positive values” that defi ne our secular republic...
...Secondly, the data available to fi nancial markets are much better in both quantity and quality than are the data on global temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations...
...Perhaps the conservative movement could fi nd space in its ranks for my ilk before it’s too late...
...Three aspects of global warming hype that have always concerned me are the relative lack of data on global temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations, the accuracy of that data, and the quality of global climate models...
...It was great fun, and I’m glad the tradition has continued...
...I fondly recalled going to the fi rst Blobfest with my sisterin-law and two children...
...I N “CAN WE TALK...
...Cohen calls this the “central question of bioethics” and Ferguson notes that many people come up with “a pretty sneaky answer” to the question by refusing to answer it...
...But Americans in the Lower 48 may not know about the long period of time with little sun, the explosion of light during the summer, the obvious harshness of winter, or the vastness and ever present threat of nature, which underscore a need for Alaskans to be self-reliant and independent...
...WHAT’S YOUR EXCUSE...
...Unfortunately, most reporters fall very short when it comes to discussing modeling, probability, and statistics...
...What is needed is a revival of confi dence in the demonstrated superiority of our secular republic...
...However, I think Gavora glosses over some of the unique demands of life in Alaska as she briefl y mentions the harrowing plane rides to games and long bus rides...
...Those 10-year-olds presented the ethical probing of Leon Kass and Eric Cohen unabashedly...
Vol. 14 • September 2008 • No. 3
