A Future for Brand Bush?
BARNES, FRED
A Future for Brand Bush? Jeb contemplates a Senate run. BY FRED BARNES When Mel Martinez reached Jeb Bush last week to tell him that Martinez would shortly announce his decision not to...
...If Bush runs for the Senate, he’ll be in an enviable position...
...Democratic national chairman Terry McAuliffe “guaranteed” Governor Bush would be defeated for reelection...
...There should not be such a thing as a big government Republican,” Jeb Bush told Politico after the November election, differentiating himself from his brother in a none-too-subtle way...
...One result: Moderates tend to regard Bush favorably...
...Bush’s sudden emergence, after two years out of politics, has national signifi cance beyond the possibility he might run for president some day...
...He would also have a few years to fi ll the one gap in his political experience: foreign policy...
...If Jeb Bush runs for the Senate in 2010, chances are you won’t hear that kind of bravado again...
...His wife is originally from Mexico, and he speaks Spanish fl uently...
...But a Senate bid would signal he at least wants to keep the presidential option open...
...Bush was wise to disclose his interest...
...It would be very dangerous for any Democrat who holds a signifi cant offi ce—a congressional seat or statewide offi ce—to challenge Bush,” Brown says...
...That number would be routine for a governor at the start of his term, but for a departing governor it’s unusually high...
...His wide appeal as Florida governor and a national fi gure is not...
...But he was the leader of a movement...
...When he left offi ce in 2006, he was rated an excellent or good governor by 57 percent of Floridians in a Quinnipiac poll...
...It dipped to 31 percent for McCain in 2008 and would have dropped further absent McCain’s reputation as an immigration reformer...
...Bush, has anything of the kind...
...And there’s another important aspect to Bush that involves the future of the Republican party...
...The Republican party needs Bush to take on a task at which Jeb’s brother failed: softening, if not changing, the opposition of Republicans to immigration reform...
...Bush doesn’t have that status, though he is far closer to Reagan ideologically than almost any prominent Republican today and certainly more Reagan-like than his brother or father...
...When I interviewed him two years ago in his waning days as Florida governor, I got the impression he wouldn’t...
...Bush is pro-immigrant...
...I’m not a big Washington guy,” he told me...
...It’s true that Ronald Reagan hadn’t held elective offi ce for six years when he won the Republican presidential nomination in 1980...
...It was early in the morning, and Bush was working out on an exercise machine...
...And it may evaporate altogether as the differences between Jeb and George become clear...
...Peter Brown, the Quinnipiac pollster and expert on Florida politics, says Bush would not only clear the Republican fi eld in 2010, he’d clear much of the Democratic fi eld...
...It’s rare...
...Republicans, divided and depressed after crushing election losses in 2006 and this year, need unifying leaders with broad appeal...
...He also urged Republicans to champion reform, stamp out corruption, and emphasize an agenda to help families...
...Bush, in his eight years as Florida governor, was popular with all branches of the party...
...Democrats had put Martinez at the top of their Senate target list for 2010...
...As a senator, assuming he’s elected, he would be a national fi gure...
...Most of that is unremarkable...
...Bush is a small government conservative who often talks about having a “libertarian gene...
...The quick announcement means that no other Republican can gain support for a 2010 Senate race in Florida...
...He backed the immigration plan of his brother and John McCain that many Republicans rejected...
...Even more impressive was his 56 percent rating among independents, a critical voting bloc that has turned decisively against Republicans in the past two elections...
...Of course, that’s partly because of the question that never goes away: Will Jeb run for president some day...
...At the top of the list is not just advocating limited government but practicing it when in offi ce...
...They tried this in 2002...
...Bush, in my view, was the best governor in the country...
...But a day later, he told reporters he’s considering running...
...Bush is a conventional conservative on economics, social issues, and foreign policy...
...And when Republican governors met last month in Miami, Bush’s hometown, and he didn’t bother to drop by, I took that as another sign of his indifference to running for president, ever...
...That’s why a Senate race makes sense...
...When he won reelection in 2002, he won the CubanAmerican vote overwhelmingly and, more signifi cantly, captured a majority of the non-Cuban Hispanic vote...
...For the moment, Bush’s last name may be a hindrance, but that problem should begin to fade after President George W. Bush, his brother, leaves office next month...
...Neither his brother nor his father, the elder President George H.W...
...Opposition to immigration reform has not proven to be a vote-getter, quite the contrary...
...Otherwise, the surging Hispanic vote may be lost for decades...
...BY FRED BARNES When Mel Martinez reached Jeb Bush last week to tell him that Martinez would shortly announce his decision not to run for reelection to the Senate, Bush expressed no particular interest in succeeding him in Washington...
...But he’s also a reformer, innovator, and policy wonk, and his record in Florida refl ects this...
...If he does, he will be a strong favorite to win the seat...
...Everyone will be waiting for Bush’s decision, and the assumption is he’s far more likely than not to run...
...A Republican can’t win the White House without reversing that trend...
...Bush can’t afford to stay on the sidelines if he has any hope of being president...
...Its chief impact has been to drive away Hispanic voters...
...Since Martinez’s term won’t be over until 2010, Bush had plenty of time—months, not weeks—before he’d have to worry about a campaign...
...Bush would be a tougher target, though Democrats might fund an opponent lavishly in hopes of defeating a Bush...
...He also outlined his view of what Republicans must do to rebuild their party...
...Merely as a candidate, he’d be a focus of Republican attention...
Vol. 14 • December 2008 • No. 13
