The Two-Man Race
BARNES, FRED
The Two-Man Race Only Rudy and Mitt have credible scenarios. BY FRED BARNES Ron Paul has been a striking presence in the Republican presidential debates. One result is he’s raised an...
...The reason is Paul has no credible scenario for winning the nomination, much less the presidency...
...Pollster Frank Luntz, who has conducted focus groups at four Republican presidential debates this year, says voters liked the feistier McCain of 2000 more than the restrained McCain now...
...His scenario would see him winning more votes than any Libertarian presidential nominee ever has...
...I think this scenario is believable...
...No presidential candidate in either party has failed to win the presidential nomination after fi nishing fi rst in Iowa and New Hampshire—that is, since 1972 when Democrat Edmund Muskie managed the dubious feat of winning both but not the nomination...
...But Giuliani’s focus is on Florida and then on the big-state primaries on February 5 in California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey...
...I remember the old Ken Murray television show in the 1950s that would cut to Hollywood and Vine, where, it was said, “anything can happen and usually does...
...He, too, has the funds to compete...
...Still, the best bet is Rudy or Mitt...
...McCain’s scenario depends on improving on his run in 2000 against George W. Bush...
...Another is he’s jumped to fourth place (7.4 percent) in a New Hampshire primary poll...
...Of course it’s just a scenario, nothing more...
...At this point, with the fi rst voting just nine weeks away, only two candidates— Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney— have credible scenarios...
...That could happen, but you can’t base a winning scenario on it...
...The bigger problem for McCain and Thompson, Republican consultant Jeffrey Bell says, is “they’re not in control of their own destiny...
...His scenario—breaking out in Florida and blowing away the fi eld on Super Tuesday—is credible in my view...
...He wins early and takes off like a rocket...
...It’s conceivable, but he lacks the money he’d need on February 5. Thompson’s scenario involves doing well enough in Iowa and New Hampshire to be a viable candidate by the time South Carolina rolls around and winning there...
...Second, the primaries are a dynamic process...
...First, national polls don’t matter at all...
...If he stayed out of every state until the Florida primary, that would be fatal...
...But that’s purely speculative...
...Should that happen, the Romney scenario sees conservatives drifting to him as the alternative to the more liberal Giuliani...
...Contrary to reports, Giuliani is not ignoring the early states...
...Win in the early states and you have a far greater chance of capturing the later primaries—and the nomination...
...This means just what you think it does...
...He’s poured money into those states, broadcast TV spots, and built organizations...
...Former congressman Vin Weber, a Romney adviser, says there’s a ceiling on how many Republicans will back Giuliani, one that will keep him from winning the nomination...
...If he wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, he’ll have history on his side...
...Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and John Kerry polled at 13 percent or less nationally before the primaries, then locked up the Democratic nomination a few weeks later...
...One result is he’s raised an unimaginable amount of money—$5.1 million in the third quarter—for an obscure congressman from Texas...
...And, to be clear, a strategy and a scenario aren’t the same...
...John McCain and Fred Thompson may not like this...
...His name identifi cation soars...
...The other Republicans have all but ignored Michigan...
...Come to think of it, there is a credible scenario for Ron Paul...
...Weak candidates can’t...
...However, he could do well on Super Tuesday and still not lock up the nomination...
...To win primaries, they “need help” in the form of a serious blunder or collapse by Giuliani or Romney or a lesser rival...
...Just not enough to win the presidency...
...So the Romney scenario is obvious...
...Then he skipped Iowa, won in New Hampshire, lost in South Carolina, and won in Michigan...
...Now, McCain’s best-case scenario has him winning in New Hampshire, where he’s been gaining, and in South Carolina, where he has a solid organization, and taking off from there...
...Romney has an early-primary strategy aimed at Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina...
...More likely than not, the Republican nominee will be Giuliani or Romney...
...The early winner would gain all the media attention and swamp him...
...As for Thompson, the focus groups of Republicans liked him “but they don’t see the passion,” Luntz says...
...A scenario is a vision of a candidate’s path to victory...
...We’ll see...
...Scenarios matter...
...They have scenarios, too, but theirs aren’t terribly credible...
...The same is true for Romney...
...McCain, for instance, might pick up support if Thompson faded, and vice versa...
...There are three things to keep in mind when evaluating the presidential race in 2008...
...They offer a way to judge the presidential race...
...And he “lost the early debates” on one issue, immigration...
...Third, money is more important than ever in 2008...
...Romney also has the best shot to win the Michigan primary on January 15...
...Yet practically no one takes him seriously as a possible Republican presidential nominee...
...State polls provide a better clue of what may happen...
...In the end, Republicans won’t vote for a laid back candidate...
...But his strategy of running as the only “consistent conservative” hasn’t stirred enough support to produce a credible scenario leading to the nomination...
...He grew up in Michigan and his father George was governor...
...That’s true of politics as well...
...Fox News polls show him leading in Iowa and New Hampshire and a close second in South Carolina...
...Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...He’s campaigning aggressively in New Hampshire and leads in the Fox poll in South Carolina...
...That would mean running as the Libertarian candidate for president in the general election...
...Well, Iowa maybe...
...Strong candidates can outline a sequence of likely victories or impressive fi nishes in the caucuses and primaries that would lead to the nomination...
...In that sense, the Republican campaign has become a two-man race, Rudy vs...
...Beating Giuliani and Romney in Florida and winning at least the southern primaries (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee) on Super Tuesday, plus Oklahoma and a few other states...
...Just as signifi cant, he’ll have the money—his own, plus funds he’s raised—to compete fully on February 5, Super Tuesday...
...If a long shot like McCain or Thompson or even Mike Huckabee wins in Iowa (January 3) or New Hampshire (January 8) or South Carolina (January 19), there won’t be enough time for him to raise the funds needed to compete effectively in Florida on January 29 and the 20-plus primaries on February 5. Television ads are expensive, but necessary...
...What then...
...But he couldn’t compete in enough states to deny Bush the nomination...
Vol. 13 • November 2007 • No. 8
