Northern Virginia Goes South?

...There is absolutely no question that Virginia is bluing,” says C. Richard Cranwell, chairman of Virginia’s Democratic party and a 30-year veteran of the House of Delegates...

...Democrats try to tie Northern Virginia Republicans to Bush and the war in Iraq, but local elections come down to issues like roads and social services...

...Devolites Davis believes the Democrats’ advantage is a short-term trend...

...Democrats captured the governorship in 2001 and 2005, and Jim Webb defeated incumbent Republican senator George Allen in a nasty 2006 race that received national attention...

...Tom Davis agrees, and says, “She’s just got to defi ne herself, which she’s done consistently, and she’ll be okay...

...One thing is clear: Virginia has become a battleground state...

...I think that you’re just seeing a reaction to national politics,” she says, noting that she spends much of her free time knocking on doors and talking to constituents...

...Virginia has shown that it has been more competitive than the average southern red state,” says Smyth, “but whether that’s something that will keep going in that direction or stabilize is something we’ll have to wait and see...

...A recent Rasmussen poll reported that Hillary Clinton has a 49 percent approval rating in the state and is neck and neck with the Republican frontrunners...

...But Devolites Davis is no rightwinger, and says she is a “perfect fi t” for the district she classifi es as “fi scally conservative, socially moderate...

...She is pro-life, but recently told the gay-rights group Equality Fairfax that she considers herself a “RINO”— Republican In Name Only...

...Smyth stresses that incumbents have the edge in local elections, and Northern Virginia exhibits the “trends that have existed for the past decade or so that favor incumbents...

...Democrats see an opportunity to take control of the Virginia state legislature on November 6. All 140 seats are up for election, including the 40 state senators, and the Democrats need only gain four senate seats to have a majority...

...She is proud that she wrote Virginia’s children’s health care legislation, FAMIS (Federal Access to Medical Insurance Security), which, like the federal S-chip bill that Bush recently vetoed, provides insurance to children whose parents make too much to qualify for Medicaid yet still can’t afford private insurance...

...Devolites Davis has a strong record on both, and recently helped pass a $400 million transportation package for Northern Virginia...

...Devolites Davis has raised more money than Petersen, with nearly $1 million in campaign funds...

...Devolites Davis served in the House of Delegates for six years and then was elected to the senate in 2003...

...caucuses are pouring money into the 34th District...

...I don’t think it’s a sign that, just because we’ve had two Democratic governors, all of a sudden the Democrats are favored...

...One thing you have to be careful of is applying all of the national political trends and assuming that they’re going to have the same impact in state elections,” he says...

...Petersen is confi dent: “Northern Virginia has taken on a more critical mass of population,” he says, “and Northern Virginia tends Democratic...

...Petersen has now raised over $700,000, a large chunk of which came from the state Democratic party and Kaine’s PAC Moving Virginia Forward...

...Cranwell considers Petersen one of the party’s best bets this election, and Democratic PACs and leadership Samantha Sault is an editorial assistant at THE WEEKLY STANDARD...

...She says the district is 85 percent in favor of gun control...

...She says Northern Virginians “are tired of the war, and they’re not very happy with President Bush,” but she also thinks that liberals such as Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid are polarizing fi gures who will push conservatives and moderates back to the GOP...

...Devolites Davis is confi dent that her record will enable her to keep her seat because her constituents view her as “an individual” rather than a hardline Republican...

...Matt Smyth of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics says that although Democrats have a statewide advantage they shouldn’t be planning their victory party...

...State Democrats are particularly targeting three Northern Virginia incumbent senators who serve majority blue districts: Jeannemarie Devolites Davis in the 34th District, Ken Cuccinelli in the 37th District, and Jay O’Brien in the 39th District...

...Although she’s won four terms out here, it’s never been friendly territory,” says her husband, Virginia congressman Tom Davis...

...It takes a while for the trend to fi lter down into local districts, to local elections...

...As evidence, after the early October candidates’ forum, Devolites Davis excitedly told me about a usually Democratic household in her district that had one of her gigantic signs in their front yard...

...Not only did her district go for both the governor, Tim Kaine, and for Webb, but it also went for John Kerry in 2004—even though Virginia as a whole preferred Bush...

...The senators elected this year will be responsible for the 2011 redistricting, and the majority party will be able to draw districts in its favor...

...At a candidates’ forum in early October, she emphasized her passion for stricter gun control—and Petersen’s past votes against gun control legislation...

...And although Northern Virginia increasingly votes Democratic in presidential and gubernatorial elections, local Republicans still have an edge...

...But this model southern conservative stronghold has been moving to the left in recent years...

...Two of the area’s three congressmen, Tom Davis and Frank Wolf, are Republicans, and Northern Virginia’s moderate Republicans consistently raise more campaign money than their Democratic opponents...

...Her opponent, J. Chapman “Chap” Petersen, is a two-term delegate who lost his bid for lieutenant governor in 2005...